Thursday, June 28, 2007
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
Crazy Athlete of the Week
I know it's only Tuesday but check out this story! We have a winner and a record setter for fastest in the week to win the award. Also of note, this is the first non NFL player to win this award... Somewhere Roger Goodell is wetting his pants with excitement.This is a really tragic story so I won't make any (more)jokes about it.
Check back for more NBA Draft coverage, all the latest on baseball and why we're not fooled by the Rangers hot streak, more crazy athletes and whatever else we feel like bullying you about.
Crazy Athlete of the Week!
Congratulations to Fred Evans of the Miami Dolphins for winning the coveted crazy athlete of the week award. There were many worthy submissions this week but Evans managed to blow them all out of the water. According to police reports, Evans was riding in a cab when he vomited all over the cab and became engaged in an argument with the cab driver. Eventually police arrived on the scene and Evans refused to get out of the cab. He then bit a police officer on the wrist and got tasered....twice. Hey Fred Evans, Pacman Jones called he wants his life back. Now I have a lot of experience riding in a cab while drunk, and I know that if you ever feel like your going to be sick you just ask the driver to pull over and you do your business of the side of the road and then continue home. It works out a lot better for everyone involved. Evans apparently thought differently and he ended up tasered and in jail. Well Evans, with the league-wide crackdown on douche bag behavior like this, you might need a new line of work soon. Your in luck, with biting skills like that Michael Vick just might allow you to join his dog fighting ring! Hey at least they're house broken.
Mavs 2007 Draft
J.J. here to take a quick look at some guys the Mavs should focus on as well as the perfect realistic draft for them. I'll break it down by position.
First, PG. Mavs don't have a real need but in the NBA you can never have enough talented PG's. 3 guys catch my eye that I think the Mavs have a shot at. In order they are, Taurean Green from Florida, Jared Jordan from Marist, and Aaron Brooks from Oregon. Previously, we had Taurean falling to the Mavs at the 50th or 60th pick but after a very impressive workout, he is a probable first rounder. I'm not as high on Jordan as some others but he does have real talent. Great ball handeling skills and a ton of speed. He is just very unpolished and I don't want the Mavs to spend their first pick on him, which is what they would have to do to get him. That leavs us with Brooks, who's name scares me off a little. All jokes aside, the kid would be a great fit here. He has speed to burn, and is a pure scorer. Think of a less refined Devin Harris. Being able to throw out Harris and then Brooks would wear any team out. A great boost off the bench. Most drafts have him going anywhere from 55 to undrafted, my hope being the later, because he would be a steal for free. The Mavs, depending on their first 2 picks could justify taking him with pick 60.
Next, the PF. Also not a huge need, but a decent scorerer or defender off the bench behind the big German would be nice. 5 guys I like that the Mavs have some possible shot at are in order, Glen Davis, Josh McRoberts, Nick Fazekas, Ali Traore, and Stephane Lasme. It is hard to project who goes where in this crazy deep draft. Some have Davis as high as #17 to the Nets. My gut tells me he goes somewhere between picks 28 and 32, just ahead of the Mavs. If he is there though, they have to grab him. He is the most NBA ready PF in the draft, and would be a steal. McRoberts and Fazekas are also guys I think go just before the Mavs pick but again if they are there, they are great value guys. That leaves Traore, a Frenchman who would stay in France a year or two refineing his game. When he gets done, think of a simular version of the Cavs Varejao. Not bad for the 60th pick if they can land him there. Stephane Lasme; who I know Lincoln would love to have here just to get wasted and scream at for haveing a girls name, is an intreguing player. He should be there right at pick 60, possibly undrafted. While he is nothing to write home about offensively, he is a top 3 shotblocker in this draft and is crazy athletic. I would love to have this guy on the Mavs.
SF is a position locked up by the great Josh Howard, but athletic 3's are what make champions. The 7 guys I like are, Jared Dudley, Marcus Williams, Alando Tucker, Demetris Nichols, Dominic McGuire, Sun Yue, and Reyshawn Terry. While Dudley is very good, the Mavs only chance at him is with pick 34, and there are more pressing needs. Williams won't slip to pick 50, but if he does they have to take him. The Big 10 player of the year and runner up to Kevin Durant for POY, Alando Tucker, would also be a steal at pick 50. Pretty sure he doesn't fall that far though, plus he isn't the shooter the Mavs need. Nichols has everything I like in a 3. Athletic, tall and rangy, and is the best shooting SF in the whole draft. Mavs steal him at 50 and look out. A combo of him and J-Ho is scary. Both shoot the trey very well. That leavs McGuire, Yue, and Terry. One of these guys will go undrafted because of the depth of this draft. My money is on McGuire and I sure hope the Mavs scoop him up then. He is a poor man's Kirilenko, enough said.
Finally, SG. This is the position the Mavs need to improve on. A big, physical shooter, who can also defend is a must. Enter Arron Affalo, perhaps the best fit on the Mavs out of the whole draft minus the top 2 guys. He has a great mid-range game, is working on the trey and isn't afraid to D-up anyone. A dream for the Mavs at pick 34. The Mavs could also take a SG at pick 50, especially D.J. Strawberry. I love his combo ability and the fact that he is a shutdown defender. Tuff not to take, but if they go with a SG with pick 34, and have Ager from last year they can't justify it. 2 guys I didn't mention that I would love at pick 34 if they make it are Morris Almond and Daequan Cook. Neither make it in my opinion, they are too good. One last guy I think might go undrafted is J.R. Reynolds from Virginia, and if he does he has to be the Mavs #1 undrafted priority. He can shoot from anywhere, is super athletic, and is also a tweener that can help out at both gaurd spots. A real great fit for the Mavs.
Here is the best realistic draft for the Mavs. With pick 34 they take Affalo. With pick 50, they take Nichols, and with pick 60, they take Lasme. The 2 undrafted guys they should focus on are Reynolds and Brooks. The lineup would look like this.
PG's. Harris, Terry, Barrea.
SG's. Affalo (r), Stackhouse, Ager.
SF's. J-Ho, Nichols (r), Buckner.
PF's. Dirk, Lasme (r), Pops.
C's. Diop, Damp, Mbenga.
Guys they wouldn't have spaces for on the 15-man roster; Brooks, Reynolds, and Deavon George.
If they make the Abdur-Rahim trade which is Buckner, George, Barrea, and a 2nd rounder next year for Abdur-Rahim, the lineup would look like this.
PG's. Harris, Terry, Brooks(r).
SG's. Affalo(r), Ager, Reynolds(r).
SF's. J-Ho, Stackhouse, Nichols(r).
PF's. Dirk, Abdur-Rahim, Lasme(r).
C's. Diop, Damp, Mbenga.
Pops wouldn't be on the 15-man roster, but could possibly crack it with continued development. A very athletic young lineup that has what it takes to win it all would be what was left. And yes, there would be 6 rookies, but 4 would be third stringers, with Nichols and Lasme getting the bulk of the time on the 12-man active roster.
First, PG. Mavs don't have a real need but in the NBA you can never have enough talented PG's. 3 guys catch my eye that I think the Mavs have a shot at. In order they are, Taurean Green from Florida, Jared Jordan from Marist, and Aaron Brooks from Oregon. Previously, we had Taurean falling to the Mavs at the 50th or 60th pick but after a very impressive workout, he is a probable first rounder. I'm not as high on Jordan as some others but he does have real talent. Great ball handeling skills and a ton of speed. He is just very unpolished and I don't want the Mavs to spend their first pick on him, which is what they would have to do to get him. That leavs us with Brooks, who's name scares me off a little. All jokes aside, the kid would be a great fit here. He has speed to burn, and is a pure scorer. Think of a less refined Devin Harris. Being able to throw out Harris and then Brooks would wear any team out. A great boost off the bench. Most drafts have him going anywhere from 55 to undrafted, my hope being the later, because he would be a steal for free. The Mavs, depending on their first 2 picks could justify taking him with pick 60.
Next, the PF. Also not a huge need, but a decent scorerer or defender off the bench behind the big German would be nice. 5 guys I like that the Mavs have some possible shot at are in order, Glen Davis, Josh McRoberts, Nick Fazekas, Ali Traore, and Stephane Lasme. It is hard to project who goes where in this crazy deep draft. Some have Davis as high as #17 to the Nets. My gut tells me he goes somewhere between picks 28 and 32, just ahead of the Mavs. If he is there though, they have to grab him. He is the most NBA ready PF in the draft, and would be a steal. McRoberts and Fazekas are also guys I think go just before the Mavs pick but again if they are there, they are great value guys. That leaves Traore, a Frenchman who would stay in France a year or two refineing his game. When he gets done, think of a simular version of the Cavs Varejao. Not bad for the 60th pick if they can land him there. Stephane Lasme; who I know Lincoln would love to have here just to get wasted and scream at for haveing a girls name, is an intreguing player. He should be there right at pick 60, possibly undrafted. While he is nothing to write home about offensively, he is a top 3 shotblocker in this draft and is crazy athletic. I would love to have this guy on the Mavs.
SF is a position locked up by the great Josh Howard, but athletic 3's are what make champions. The 7 guys I like are, Jared Dudley, Marcus Williams, Alando Tucker, Demetris Nichols, Dominic McGuire, Sun Yue, and Reyshawn Terry. While Dudley is very good, the Mavs only chance at him is with pick 34, and there are more pressing needs. Williams won't slip to pick 50, but if he does they have to take him. The Big 10 player of the year and runner up to Kevin Durant for POY, Alando Tucker, would also be a steal at pick 50. Pretty sure he doesn't fall that far though, plus he isn't the shooter the Mavs need. Nichols has everything I like in a 3. Athletic, tall and rangy, and is the best shooting SF in the whole draft. Mavs steal him at 50 and look out. A combo of him and J-Ho is scary. Both shoot the trey very well. That leavs McGuire, Yue, and Terry. One of these guys will go undrafted because of the depth of this draft. My money is on McGuire and I sure hope the Mavs scoop him up then. He is a poor man's Kirilenko, enough said.
Finally, SG. This is the position the Mavs need to improve on. A big, physical shooter, who can also defend is a must. Enter Arron Affalo, perhaps the best fit on the Mavs out of the whole draft minus the top 2 guys. He has a great mid-range game, is working on the trey and isn't afraid to D-up anyone. A dream for the Mavs at pick 34. The Mavs could also take a SG at pick 50, especially D.J. Strawberry. I love his combo ability and the fact that he is a shutdown defender. Tuff not to take, but if they go with a SG with pick 34, and have Ager from last year they can't justify it. 2 guys I didn't mention that I would love at pick 34 if they make it are Morris Almond and Daequan Cook. Neither make it in my opinion, they are too good. One last guy I think might go undrafted is J.R. Reynolds from Virginia, and if he does he has to be the Mavs #1 undrafted priority. He can shoot from anywhere, is super athletic, and is also a tweener that can help out at both gaurd spots. A real great fit for the Mavs.
Here is the best realistic draft for the Mavs. With pick 34 they take Affalo. With pick 50, they take Nichols, and with pick 60, they take Lasme. The 2 undrafted guys they should focus on are Reynolds and Brooks. The lineup would look like this.
PG's. Harris, Terry, Barrea.
SG's. Affalo (r), Stackhouse, Ager.
SF's. J-Ho, Nichols (r), Buckner.
PF's. Dirk, Lasme (r), Pops.
C's. Diop, Damp, Mbenga.
Guys they wouldn't have spaces for on the 15-man roster; Brooks, Reynolds, and Deavon George.
If they make the Abdur-Rahim trade which is Buckner, George, Barrea, and a 2nd rounder next year for Abdur-Rahim, the lineup would look like this.
PG's. Harris, Terry, Brooks(r).
SG's. Affalo(r), Ager, Reynolds(r).
SF's. J-Ho, Stackhouse, Nichols(r).
PF's. Dirk, Abdur-Rahim, Lasme(r).
C's. Diop, Damp, Mbenga.
Pops wouldn't be on the 15-man roster, but could possibly crack it with continued development. A very athletic young lineup that has what it takes to win it all would be what was left. And yes, there would be 6 rookies, but 4 would be third stringers, with Nichols and Lasme getting the bulk of the time on the 12-man active roster.
Monday, June 25, 2007
Random Musings
Sorry I haven't been able to write as much I would like too...crazy job. Anywho, I've got some down time and just felt like hitting a few topics.
- Just started reading, "The Juice" by Will Carroll. If anyone wants to get the real story on steroids in baseball, it's a must read...much like my column (scroll down.)
- NBA Draft is fast approaching! I remember the days when I wondered who the Mavs would get with their top 5 pick, glad I don't have to worry about that (now it's the Rangers... Pedro Alvarez ??) We haven't written much about the roundball picking fest, but we will have in depth post draft coverage...bullying your fave teams crappy picks (Greg Oden...really?)
- A few very underrated guys going into this thing: Acie Law IV!!! Most mocks have him going in the double digits or even out of the lottery all together. I know GM's fall in love with UPSIDE in the draft (in any sport) and Law IV, the fifth year senior is seen as having limited upside. But to me he's virtually Chauncey Billups. I think he's a top 15 PG in the league right now. Conely Jr has a ton a talent and is crazy fast, but you also don't know how much of his success comes from the fact that he's played with Greg freaking Oden his entire life. I take Law right now as the best value of any pick in the draft.
- I take Corey Brewer over any of the Florida guys...but I'd be very happy with any of them.
- Brandon Wright has a chance to battle Law IV for the best value pick of the draft, riskier than Law but higher upside. Maybe I just caught him on his good nights but I watched him play 7-10 games last year and was impressed every time. He'd be #1 in some years.
- Glen Davis has slimmed down and gone up draft boards... hope he's still there when the Mavs have their first 2nd rounder.
- Another guy I'm sure the Mavs have their eyes on and hope he lasts till they pick is a Texas kid.
- Also interesting rumors floating around the world wide interweb about the Mavs trying to trade up into the top 10 for Joakim Noah, with Boston and Minny as potential trading partners and Jet Terry as ammo.
- Tank Johnson was JUST RELEASED by Da Bears...the Cowboys have a big need at DT, he's crazy but he's really good too...I'm just sayin'
- The NFL Supplemental Draft is July 12th and guys taken in there have a really bad track record of working out, BUT Georgia cornerback Paul Oliver is very interesting. He left school because of grades...not a good sign...but he's a real big strong physical corner with great technique and cover skills...that some would go so far as to call skillz. If he had a good senior season for the Dogs he likely would have been the first senior corner taken in the draft, low-mid first round. I'd def take a 5th round pick on him, it might take a 4th to get him though...something to keep an eye out on.
- Congrats to Oregon State for winning the College World Series...Hurray Beavers!!
- Sosa hit 600 but I don't think he's a Hall of Famer. He was only dominate for 5 years. Other than that he's a .320 OBP guys with good pop who was bad on the base paths and horrible in the field. He's got great aggregate totals, but that's it. He wasn't a Hall of Famer before the season started, hitting 12 homers while hitting .250/.300 shouldn't be seen as an accomplishment. In his prime he was as good as anyone, but it just wasn't long enough. The bar is really high for rightfielders: BABE RUTH, HANK AARON, MEL OTT, FRANK ROBINSON, AL KALINE, ROBERTO CLEMENTE, PAUL WANER, DAVE WINFIELD, REGGIE JACKSON, SAM CRAWFORD, ENOS SLAUGHTER. It has nothing to do with steroids.
Thursday, June 21, 2007
On 'Roids
Giambi's apology to the fans has riled up those sitting in the big comfy chairs in the Commish's office. However, for some reason (that we'll discuss later), Bud doesn't seem to care if owners call out players with no evidence... The same owner who signed Sammy Sosa and glorified his assent into the arbitrary 600 home run club.... But hey, if your team is that bad you need something for the fans to cheer about, right? More proof that he cares more about profit than winning...but that's a different rant.
There's tons of propaganda and misinformation about the steroids era in baseball. Nothing beats the baseball life out of me like people talking about Performance Enhancing Drugs, PED's. I've been putting off writing this column for a long time, but I think there needs to be some real facts and intelligent information out there on this issue.
My first point: BASEBALL CREATED THIS PROBLEM. Maybe it's the sociology major in me coming out but I tend to look at all drug use (steroids, cocaine, alcohol) as symptoms of larger, institutional problems. Baseball players take steroids because they believe they will be rewarded for it. Beyond Jason Giambi's 7/120 deal he signed with the Evil Empire, baseball as a whole promoted the long ball after the 1994 strike as an attempt to get the fans back as quick as possible. No one cared if it was dirty, or seedy, or morally wrong as long as fans got their butt's in the seats.
Tom Hicks' comments about Juan Gonzalez express this point very clearly. "[A]fter he came off of steroids, probably" he wasn't upset that Juan Gone used steroids he was upset that he didn't use steroids!! Tom Hicks is not anti PED's, he wants players to give him good return on investment. Hicks said nothing of Juan in his previous stint with the Rangers, when he was productive. Juan was coming off of a great year in Cleveland, John Hart had some ties there. The Rangers knew of Juan's PED usage, but as long as he was a good player they looked the other way. No worrying out his health, just performance. If Juan juiced, Hicks was happy... and Selig wants to make this out to be all the players fault...
Selig is coercing Giambi to testify in the Mitchell Investigation because he tried to apologize. A prominent owner outright accuses a player of using steroids and blames him for stopping, yet the commish says no punishment will come for Hicks. This is the same reason Bud doesn't want to go any of Bonds' games as he nears #756, because he wants to make the players out to be the bad guys in all of this.
Quick question, Mr. Selig... did anyone ever tell you that players were using steroids prior to 2005, or 1998 or 1995? I know for a fact the answer is yes. That person, former Commish Fay Vincent. Vincent said in an ESPN interview that he knew players were taking steroids when he was in charge, but he looked the other way because he thought roids wouldn't be of any great benefit to baseball players. Baseball knew of this problem for decades!
But if attendance dips...because of a strike that you were largely responsible Mr Selig...you do every thing you can to make the game more exciting. You encourage the owners to build smaller parks, intentionally juice the balls and turn a blind eye while the players themselves juice.
My second point: THIS IS A PROBLEM EXACERBATED BY THE MEDIA. Now, that's not to say that nobody in baseball used PEDs and that this whole rigamarole is made up by the media. What I'm saying is that ESPN and national/local baseball writers have made people believe that every person in baseball in on the Juice...correct that: that ever slugger in baseball is on the juice. Media speculates on the effects of steroids and HGH as if they are magic elixirs that turn any Juan Pierre into Adam Dunn. There is almost zero effort on the part of national media outlets to get any truth, because the truth isn't near as sexy as the story they're perpetuating now.
The Truth: On May 6th of this year Juan Salas, a middle reliever for the Devil Rays, became the fourth player suspended under the revamped testing system. That's right, the great Juan Salas!!! A 28 year old with all of 23 innings on his major league resume. Juan Salas is the typical steroid user, not Barry Bonds. Your Juan Salas' of the world have the most to gain by using steroids, a major league roster spot. The difference between pitching in AA and the MLB is so huge that a guy, too old to be considered a prospect anymore, would be willing to try just about anything to achieve his goal. It's simple prospect theory.
Salas is the fourth player nabbed under the new testing system, and the fourth relief pitcher. That’s right - in the one-plus years of what many consider the gold standard of professional testing, all four positive tests came with relievers. (Debate Yusaku Iriki as much as you want. If he’d made it, he likely would have been a reliever.) Eight of fifteen players popped have been pitchers, with only Ryan Franklin a “starter.” (Again, here’s a point for debating role … and quality.) Knowing that steroids, used properly, could really aid a player’s recovery more than it could his fastball or power numbers, this shouldn’t surprise people.
In 2003 when the first confidential testing was done, only about 6% of players tested positive. In 2005 that number was about 1.5%, only 11 players were in the major leagues. Only 1 had ever made an All-Star team, Rafeal Palmerio...but the truth will come out about that one day. Of the 65 minor leaguers only ever made a Baseball America Top 100 prospect list (Javier Herrera #68 in 2005.) Very few players use, and the ones that do are mostly scrubs.
Most people think that they only things players are on is steroids or HGH. I don’t see anyone outraged about the use of insulin, IGF-r1, MGF, or nootropics. In fact, I don’t see anyone talking about them. While people are busy raging against what was done last year or two years ago, players have moved on. The drug creators and distributors have moved on. Guys like Dr. David Black, the top tester in the world, Dr. Don Catlin, the top researcher in the world, and Rabin and his WADA crew, could use the funding not just to catch up, but to actually get in step with what’s actually happening. That's the actual problem, but no one cares about reality.
THE AMOUNT PEDs ACTUALLY ENHANCE PERFORMANCE IS EXAGGERATED. If someone tells you HGH works, he clearly missed David Laurila’s informative interview with Andy Andres, where the topic came up:
DL: A hot topic is Human Growth Hormone (HGH), which is reportedly replacing anabolic steroids in a lot of locker rooms. How effective is HGH?
AA: Conventional wisdom says that everyone is on HGH now because there’s no test to detect it, but what they don’t realize is that there’s a night and day difference between HGH and anabolic-androgenic steroids. Studies have shown that HGH supplementation will increase muscle mass; but there is little, if any, evidence of strength gains in these studies. In other words, when HGH supplementation has been studied in normal males, there are reports of small gains in muscle mass, but there seems to be no evidence from a randomized, double-blind study that you gain strength from HGH alone. If there is any effect of HGH, it is likely to be a small effect, especially compared to how anabolic steroids improve strength and baseball performance.
If HGH “works”, but doesn’t have the strength gains expected, how is it working? We have to look no further than the scientific evidence. HGH is most commonly used in two populations: short kids and people rich enough to try and buy their way out of aging. It doesn't help people play baseball.
Baseball Prospectus' book Baseball Between the Numbers: Why Everything You Know About the Game is Wrong. Tackled the problem of steroids by looking at statistical evidence...what a shocking and novel concept! Actually see what happened, not just make random guesses and assumptions. In 2005 76 players were suspended for testing positive for the use of steroids or other performance enhancing drugs, 65 minor league and 11 major leaguers.
The great Nate Silver then took all of those players statistics and compared the year they tested positive and the year after when, presumably, they would be off the juice. Using the equivalent triple slash stats and EqA, which adjust for park and league effects to get a better look what a player actually did himself, and applying a PECOTA aided growth curve, to account for any natural progression of skill, Silver found the effects of steroids.
Weighted Average Change in Performance Among Suspended Position Players:
Batting Average: -.010
On-Base Percentage: -.014
Slugging Average: -.006
Equivalent Average: -.006
For pitchers, which made up the majority of the sample, equivalent DIPS stats were used as well as EqERA.
Weighted Average Change in Performance Among Suspended Pitchers:
Walk Rate: +0.3 per 9 IP
Strikeout Rate: -0.1 per 9 IP
Home-Run Rate: +0.2 per 9 IP
Earned Run Average: +0.13
So there is a measurable difference, but it is very tiny and unquestionably not statistically significant.
The work by Nate Silver and the rest of the Baseball Prospectus gang is the most definitive work I've come across on the subject, and they only thing that approaches the problem objectively and analytically. Their conclusion: There is no significant difference in the performance of professional baseball players on steroids or off.
WHAT SELIG SHOULD HAVE DONE: As linked to above, the Mitchell Investigation is a sham that should be immediately disbanded; or better yet never started! Any investigation that needs players to be blackmailed into talking to them is a farce, put on by the Commish's buddy.
I remember watching TV when Bud Selig held a big press conference announcing the formation of the investigation and shouting at my TV. I'm still shouting...although now maybe someone other than my neighbors will hear.
What Selig should have done, for the best interest of the game, would have been to say, "We now have the most cutting-edge testing in all of sports. We will work tirelessly to keep on the cutting-edge and pioneer new testing technologies. We have the by far the strictest punishments in place, in any sport. This was a problem, that we are correcting. I, as the Commissioner of Baseball, take responsibility for the problem getting out of control under my watch. That problem is being rectified. The game is at its strongest point ever. The quality of play and the quality of player are now beyond reproach. Let's look towards the future of a clean game. History will be the ultimate judge of what happened, I'm not here to talk about the past."
***Thanks to Will Carroll, Nate Silver, Joe Sheehan, and all the other guys doing real, actual, good work on this subject***
There's tons of propaganda and misinformation about the steroids era in baseball. Nothing beats the baseball life out of me like people talking about Performance Enhancing Drugs, PED's. I've been putting off writing this column for a long time, but I think there needs to be some real facts and intelligent information out there on this issue.
My first point: BASEBALL CREATED THIS PROBLEM. Maybe it's the sociology major in me coming out but I tend to look at all drug use (steroids, cocaine, alcohol) as symptoms of larger, institutional problems. Baseball players take steroids because they believe they will be rewarded for it. Beyond Jason Giambi's 7/120 deal he signed with the Evil Empire, baseball as a whole promoted the long ball after the 1994 strike as an attempt to get the fans back as quick as possible. No one cared if it was dirty, or seedy, or morally wrong as long as fans got their butt's in the seats.
Tom Hicks' comments about Juan Gonzalez express this point very clearly. "[A]fter he came off of steroids, probably" he wasn't upset that Juan Gone used steroids he was upset that he didn't use steroids!! Tom Hicks is not anti PED's, he wants players to give him good return on investment. Hicks said nothing of Juan in his previous stint with the Rangers, when he was productive. Juan was coming off of a great year in Cleveland, John Hart had some ties there. The Rangers knew of Juan's PED usage, but as long as he was a good player they looked the other way. No worrying out his health, just performance. If Juan juiced, Hicks was happy... and Selig wants to make this out to be all the players fault...
Selig is coercing Giambi to testify in the Mitchell Investigation because he tried to apologize. A prominent owner outright accuses a player of using steroids and blames him for stopping, yet the commish says no punishment will come for Hicks. This is the same reason Bud doesn't want to go any of Bonds' games as he nears #756, because he wants to make the players out to be the bad guys in all of this.
Quick question, Mr. Selig... did anyone ever tell you that players were using steroids prior to 2005, or 1998 or 1995? I know for a fact the answer is yes. That person, former Commish Fay Vincent. Vincent said in an ESPN interview that he knew players were taking steroids when he was in charge, but he looked the other way because he thought roids wouldn't be of any great benefit to baseball players. Baseball knew of this problem for decades!
But if attendance dips...because of a strike that you were largely responsible Mr Selig...you do every thing you can to make the game more exciting. You encourage the owners to build smaller parks, intentionally juice the balls and turn a blind eye while the players themselves juice.
My second point: THIS IS A PROBLEM EXACERBATED BY THE MEDIA. Now, that's not to say that nobody in baseball used PEDs and that this whole rigamarole is made up by the media. What I'm saying is that ESPN and national/local baseball writers have made people believe that every person in baseball in on the Juice...correct that: that ever slugger in baseball is on the juice. Media speculates on the effects of steroids and HGH as if they are magic elixirs that turn any Juan Pierre into Adam Dunn. There is almost zero effort on the part of national media outlets to get any truth, because the truth isn't near as sexy as the story they're perpetuating now.
The Truth: On May 6th of this year Juan Salas, a middle reliever for the Devil Rays, became the fourth player suspended under the revamped testing system. That's right, the great Juan Salas!!! A 28 year old with all of 23 innings on his major league resume. Juan Salas is the typical steroid user, not Barry Bonds. Your Juan Salas' of the world have the most to gain by using steroids, a major league roster spot. The difference between pitching in AA and the MLB is so huge that a guy, too old to be considered a prospect anymore, would be willing to try just about anything to achieve his goal. It's simple prospect theory.
Salas is the fourth player nabbed under the new testing system, and the fourth relief pitcher. That’s right - in the one-plus years of what many consider the gold standard of professional testing, all four positive tests came with relievers. (Debate Yusaku Iriki as much as you want. If he’d made it, he likely would have been a reliever.) Eight of fifteen players popped have been pitchers, with only Ryan Franklin a “starter.” (Again, here’s a point for debating role … and quality.) Knowing that steroids, used properly, could really aid a player’s recovery more than it could his fastball or power numbers, this shouldn’t surprise people.
In 2003 when the first confidential testing was done, only about 6% of players tested positive. In 2005 that number was about 1.5%, only 11 players were in the major leagues. Only 1 had ever made an All-Star team, Rafeal Palmerio...but the truth will come out about that one day. Of the 65 minor leaguers only ever made a Baseball America Top 100 prospect list (Javier Herrera #68 in 2005.) Very few players use, and the ones that do are mostly scrubs.
Most people think that they only things players are on is steroids or HGH. I don’t see anyone outraged about the use of insulin, IGF-r1, MGF, or nootropics. In fact, I don’t see anyone talking about them. While people are busy raging against what was done last year or two years ago, players have moved on. The drug creators and distributors have moved on. Guys like Dr. David Black, the top tester in the world, Dr. Don Catlin, the top researcher in the world, and Rabin and his WADA crew, could use the funding not just to catch up, but to actually get in step with what’s actually happening. That's the actual problem, but no one cares about reality.
THE AMOUNT PEDs ACTUALLY ENHANCE PERFORMANCE IS EXAGGERATED. If someone tells you HGH works, he clearly missed David Laurila’s informative interview with Andy Andres, where the topic came up:
DL: A hot topic is Human Growth Hormone (HGH), which is reportedly replacing anabolic steroids in a lot of locker rooms. How effective is HGH?
AA: Conventional wisdom says that everyone is on HGH now because there’s no test to detect it, but what they don’t realize is that there’s a night and day difference between HGH and anabolic-androgenic steroids. Studies have shown that HGH supplementation will increase muscle mass; but there is little, if any, evidence of strength gains in these studies. In other words, when HGH supplementation has been studied in normal males, there are reports of small gains in muscle mass, but there seems to be no evidence from a randomized, double-blind study that you gain strength from HGH alone. If there is any effect of HGH, it is likely to be a small effect, especially compared to how anabolic steroids improve strength and baseball performance.
If HGH “works”, but doesn’t have the strength gains expected, how is it working? We have to look no further than the scientific evidence. HGH is most commonly used in two populations: short kids and people rich enough to try and buy their way out of aging. It doesn't help people play baseball.
Baseball Prospectus' book Baseball Between the Numbers: Why Everything You Know About the Game is Wrong. Tackled the problem of steroids by looking at statistical evidence...what a shocking and novel concept! Actually see what happened, not just make random guesses and assumptions. In 2005 76 players were suspended for testing positive for the use of steroids or other performance enhancing drugs, 65 minor league and 11 major leaguers.
The great Nate Silver then took all of those players statistics and compared the year they tested positive and the year after when, presumably, they would be off the juice. Using the equivalent triple slash stats and EqA, which adjust for park and league effects to get a better look what a player actually did himself, and applying a PECOTA aided growth curve, to account for any natural progression of skill, Silver found the effects of steroids.
Weighted Average Change in Performance Among Suspended Position Players:
Batting Average: -.010
On-Base Percentage: -.014
Slugging Average: -.006
Equivalent Average: -.006
For pitchers, which made up the majority of the sample, equivalent DIPS stats were used as well as EqERA.
Weighted Average Change in Performance Among Suspended Pitchers:
Walk Rate: +0.3 per 9 IP
Strikeout Rate: -0.1 per 9 IP
Home-Run Rate: +0.2 per 9 IP
Earned Run Average: +0.13
So there is a measurable difference, but it is very tiny and unquestionably not statistically significant.
The work by Nate Silver and the rest of the Baseball Prospectus gang is the most definitive work I've come across on the subject, and they only thing that approaches the problem objectively and analytically. Their conclusion: There is no significant difference in the performance of professional baseball players on steroids or off.
WHAT SELIG SHOULD HAVE DONE: As linked to above, the Mitchell Investigation is a sham that should be immediately disbanded; or better yet never started! Any investigation that needs players to be blackmailed into talking to them is a farce, put on by the Commish's buddy.
I remember watching TV when Bud Selig held a big press conference announcing the formation of the investigation and shouting at my TV. I'm still shouting...although now maybe someone other than my neighbors will hear.
What Selig should have done, for the best interest of the game, would have been to say, "We now have the most cutting-edge testing in all of sports. We will work tirelessly to keep on the cutting-edge and pioneer new testing technologies. We have the by far the strictest punishments in place, in any sport. This was a problem, that we are correcting. I, as the Commissioner of Baseball, take responsibility for the problem getting out of control under my watch. That problem is being rectified. The game is at its strongest point ever. The quality of play and the quality of player are now beyond reproach. Let's look towards the future of a clean game. History will be the ultimate judge of what happened, I'm not here to talk about the past."
***Thanks to Will Carroll, Nate Silver, Joe Sheehan, and all the other guys doing real, actual, good work on this subject***
Tuesday, June 19, 2007
Oh, Sweet Jesus No!!
From Newberg:
The Ticket is reporting this morning that, according to a Fort Worth Star-Telegram story that I can't find online, Tom Hicks will announce today that he has added one year to Jon Daniels's contract, extending its term through 2009. Bravo
From KC (who broke the story to me):
Rangers gave Jon Daniels an extension! Can you f---in believe that shit!!?!
Maybe because of his great draft, or his shocking resemblance to a trained chimp (scroll down), but I really can't figure this out.
At least we have another thing to go on the list.
The Ticket is reporting this morning that, according to a Fort Worth Star-Telegram story that I can't find online, Tom Hicks will announce today that he has added one year to Jon Daniels's contract, extending its term through 2009. Bravo
From KC (who broke the story to me):
Rangers gave Jon Daniels an extension! Can you f---in believe that shit!!?!
Maybe because of his great draft, or his shocking resemblance to a trained chimp (scroll down), but I really can't figure this out.
At least we have another thing to go on the list.
Monday, June 18, 2007
Bizzaro Weekend
Sorry for the gap in between posts, I'm sure our loyal readers are furious... sorry Larry and George.
The Sports Bullies have been working on some big time opportunities, and lengthy posts. So to tide you over here is a very quick look at some of the crazy and not so crazy things that have happened in our sports world over the past few days.
Crazy: Rangers actually win a series!
Not so crazy: Rumors continue to swirl around the future of the Rangers' brass. One high ranking MLB exec with intimate knowledge of the Rangers organization told the Sports Bullies that massive changes could be made.
Crazy: Pac-Man Jones wasn't with his boys when shots were fired.
Not so crazy: The police still want to "question" him.
Crazy: Prince Fielder hit an inside-the-park home run.
Not so crazy: The center fielder, Jason Tyner (WHOOP!), completely lost the ball. And Prince looked like he was going to die when he got back to the dugout.
Crazy: Super jacked up Tiger didn't win a major.
Not so crazy: He was still the talk of the tournament, far surpassing that dude that one... Manu Ginobili?
Crazy: The Mavs didn't win the NBA title...hey I'm still in shock which is why our coverage of the NBA has been limited to this since the freaking Warriors .... *slams head into wall*... OK, I'm alright now.
Not so crazy: The Spurs won the title. I hate you Tim Duncan! God, do I hate you!? But damn, I respect you.
P.S. If you're not watching the College World Series you're really missing out! The quality of play, the energy, the drama of the games, getting a change to see future stars (Logan Johnson - Louisville has 85 homers...or like 3 but I love the dude), and where else do you get to see Robin Ventura announce a game?!?!?!
The Sports Bullies have been working on some big time opportunities, and lengthy posts. So to tide you over here is a very quick look at some of the crazy and not so crazy things that have happened in our sports world over the past few days.
Crazy: Rangers actually win a series!
Not so crazy: Rumors continue to swirl around the future of the Rangers' brass. One high ranking MLB exec with intimate knowledge of the Rangers organization told the Sports Bullies that massive changes could be made.
Crazy: Pac-Man Jones wasn't with his boys when shots were fired.
Not so crazy: The police still want to "question" him.
Crazy: Prince Fielder hit an inside-the-park home run.
Not so crazy: The center fielder, Jason Tyner (WHOOP!), completely lost the ball. And Prince looked like he was going to die when he got back to the dugout.
Crazy: Super jacked up Tiger didn't win a major.
Not so crazy: He was still the talk of the tournament, far surpassing that dude that one... Manu Ginobili?
Crazy: The Mavs didn't win the NBA title...hey I'm still in shock which is why our coverage of the NBA has been limited to this since the freaking Warriors .... *slams head into wall*... OK, I'm alright now.
Not so crazy: The Spurs won the title. I hate you Tim Duncan! God, do I hate you!? But damn, I respect you.
P.S. If you're not watching the College World Series you're really missing out! The quality of play, the energy, the drama of the games, getting a change to see future stars (Logan Johnson - Louisville has 85 homers...or like 3 but I love the dude), and where else do you get to see Robin Ventura announce a game?!?!?!
Thursday, June 14, 2007
Crazy Athlete of the Week
Krevor here with this week's winner of our most popular award: Johnnie Morton!
Johnnie Morton has run away with the coveted crazy athlete of the week award. You may remember him as the "good enough" WR for the Kansas City Chiefs. Well shortly after his retirement he decided to start fighting in Mixed Martial Arts.
Now I am no Joe Rogan but a skinny receiver like Johnny Morton should probably not be fighting. In football we usually leave that to linebackers and offensive linemen. Well Morton apparently had an edge. Years of training? No. Chuck Norris as his trainer? No. Could it possibly be a form of performance enhancing drugs? Ding ding ding! We have a winner! You guessed it he took steroids and he took a lot of them. The LA Times is reporting that his body had 10 times the levels of the steroid epitestosterone that a normal human (not even Floyd Landis) should.
Johnnie a little bit of advice the next time you try to become an ultimate fighter do it through real training and hard work and not a shot in your ass. Then maybe you wont get your ass kicked so hard next time. Fortunately for Johnnie he will probably be suspended for a year so he can either train like a real man or think of a better thing for a retired receiver to do...I got it be an annoying T.V. personality, it works great for ex-cowboys pansy receivers Michael Irvin and Keyshawn Johnson and hey you already have the drug use down!
***Please note: Krevor is a Redskins fan so anything he says about the Cowboys or Former Cowboy Greats should be immediately discounted***
Saturday, June 9, 2007
Rangers Draft Recap
And some guys I really want the Rangers to avoid! ... most of all Julio Borbon OF Tennessee. I've seen Borbon's name attached to the Rangers in several mock drafts and I wouldn't put it past the front office to draft a leadoff hitter who drew 6 walks all season. At best Borbon could be a homeless man's Tom Goodwin...and that's not a big compliment. Now there is a need for a speedy centerfield/lead off hitter but reaching for a scrub like Borbon because you didn't get who you should have a few years ago would just compound the problem.
The above was from our draft PREVIEW! Yes, and your Texas Rangers felt obliged to take a guy who has all of 6 walks this year as a leadoff hitter. Yes, they are regressing.
The first pick isn't terrible, he is a cocky son-of-a-bitch who just might back it up... But probably not. Again, he isn't a terrible pick, it's just when you have Porcello on the board, it is a devalued pick from that aspect. Beavan has a couple attributes I like in a high school pitcher; he has very good command, which is a bit surprising for a guy as tall and lanky as he is. Also, he has performed very well at high-level international competitions. and, he is hyper-competitive. We here at Sportsbullies generally prefer college prospects early in the draft, but Beavan was one of four high school pitchers we thought was worthy of a first round pick (Porcello, Harvey, Aumont, and Beaven -- in that order.) Beaven's mechanics also worry me a bit, but I do think they can be smoothed out by a keen teacher. Much has been made of Blake throwing across his body. He turns his front shoulder very far in in his windup. This added hip rotation increases velocity but also muscle strain and lengthening any mechanical motion increases the odds of something going wrong. Beaven's windup, while not the paradigm, is merely unusual. He's always thrown that way, and his muscles have been sculpted to support this action. The added torso twist in and of itself aint going to hurt him. What will hurt Beaven is the fact that he changes arm angles on his slider. He lowers his forearm which is a big signal to hitters what is coming, now high school hitters couldn't do anything with him because he throws 95 but pros will catch on and Beaven will have to make this, somewhat minor, change.
But the Rangers redeemed themselves with pick 24, right??? No, apparently Porcello is too expensive for the 5th largest market in baseball so the Rangers go with the kid Main from Deland High School (FL.) I could think of at least 50 other players I would rather have here. The most astute of our readers may have noticed that Main was not one of the four HS hurlers that we felt worthy of such a high draft pick, two of the 4 were still on the board. We felt this way because Main does not have good secondary pitches, his fast ball while pretty fast is also pretty straight, and most importantly he is Tommy John surgery waiting to happen. (Click here: and press the "watch now" button to view his mechanics)
To the untrained eye...like the Rangers' scouts... you may not notice much wrong with Main's throwing motion however to a genius...like me... there is something VERY disturbing. Main holds his pitching arm back, still, for a very long time in his delivery. His low leg kick also exacerbates the problem as he tends to fall forward too early. What holding his arm back so long does, is place way too much force on his arm, as it has to catch up to the rest of his body that now has momentum built up towards the plate... in addition too being very ineffective Main's arm action is very dangerous! Notice the hard recoil on his arm after he releases the ball, that is literally a wave of force that is not imparted on the ball now moving towards the plate but trapped in his arm; hitting his muscles, ligaments and tendons.
We give EVEN money odds that Main has a major arm injury before he turns 23.
This leads us to the worst Ranger pick of all time: Julio Borbon.
Lincoln: Tap the brakes, are you forgetting about Drew Meyer?!? Jonathan Johnson?!? Dan Smith?!?
JJ: You've made your point, which saddens me.
All you have to do is scroll back up to see what we thought of Julio. He does have a modicum of skill but his biggest asset, speed is one that is easily removed via injury...he had a freaking leg injury this year!!! What is a really fast guy with a foot injury? Just a guy, and that's all Borbon is.
The above was from our draft PREVIEW! Yes, and your Texas Rangers felt obliged to take a guy who has all of 6 walks this year as a leadoff hitter. Yes, they are regressing.
The first pick isn't terrible, he is a cocky son-of-a-bitch who just might back it up... But probably not. Again, he isn't a terrible pick, it's just when you have Porcello on the board, it is a devalued pick from that aspect. Beavan has a couple attributes I like in a high school pitcher; he has very good command, which is a bit surprising for a guy as tall and lanky as he is. Also, he has performed very well at high-level international competitions. and, he is hyper-competitive. We here at Sportsbullies generally prefer college prospects early in the draft, but Beavan was one of four high school pitchers we thought was worthy of a first round pick (Porcello, Harvey, Aumont, and Beaven -- in that order.) Beaven's mechanics also worry me a bit, but I do think they can be smoothed out by a keen teacher. Much has been made of Blake throwing across his body. He turns his front shoulder very far in in his windup. This added hip rotation increases velocity but also muscle strain and lengthening any mechanical motion increases the odds of something going wrong. Beaven's windup, while not the paradigm, is merely unusual. He's always thrown that way, and his muscles have been sculpted to support this action. The added torso twist in and of itself aint going to hurt him. What will hurt Beaven is the fact that he changes arm angles on his slider. He lowers his forearm which is a big signal to hitters what is coming, now high school hitters couldn't do anything with him because he throws 95 but pros will catch on and Beaven will have to make this, somewhat minor, change.
But the Rangers redeemed themselves with pick 24, right??? No, apparently Porcello is too expensive for the 5th largest market in baseball so the Rangers go with the kid Main from Deland High School (FL.) I could think of at least 50 other players I would rather have here. The most astute of our readers may have noticed that Main was not one of the four HS hurlers that we felt worthy of such a high draft pick, two of the 4 were still on the board. We felt this way because Main does not have good secondary pitches, his fast ball while pretty fast is also pretty straight, and most importantly he is Tommy John surgery waiting to happen. (Click here: and press the "watch now" button to view his mechanics)
To the untrained eye...like the Rangers' scouts... you may not notice much wrong with Main's throwing motion however to a genius...like me... there is something VERY disturbing. Main holds his pitching arm back, still, for a very long time in his delivery. His low leg kick also exacerbates the problem as he tends to fall forward too early. What holding his arm back so long does, is place way too much force on his arm, as it has to catch up to the rest of his body that now has momentum built up towards the plate... in addition too being very ineffective Main's arm action is very dangerous! Notice the hard recoil on his arm after he releases the ball, that is literally a wave of force that is not imparted on the ball now moving towards the plate but trapped in his arm; hitting his muscles, ligaments and tendons.
We give EVEN money odds that Main has a major arm injury before he turns 23.
This leads us to the worst Ranger pick of all time: Julio Borbon.
Lincoln: Tap the brakes, are you forgetting about Drew Meyer?!? Jonathan Johnson?!? Dan Smith?!?
JJ: You've made your point, which saddens me.
All you have to do is scroll back up to see what we thought of Julio. He does have a modicum of skill but his biggest asset, speed is one that is easily removed via injury...he had a freaking leg injury this year!!! What is a really fast guy with a foot injury? Just a guy, and that's all Borbon is.
What really vexes us about the Rangers' top picks is that it really shows either complete ignorance of or disregard for empirical evidence. The great thing about being a baseball fan in this age is that there is so much information, so many smart people working so hard to increase our knowledge of and entertainment in the game. Millions of people now know that drafting a high school pitcher in the first round is usually a bad investment. Even more people know that a leadoff hitter needs to walk more often than 6 freaking times a year. So either the Rangers aren't amongst the millions of people that we could categorize as "knowledgeable" about the game of baseball, or they just don't care.
Passing by Porcello twice in the first round, and especially at #24, troubles me so much because it's not like the organization came out and said that they have a philosophical difference spending that much money on a high schooler...they took 2 in the first round!! They didn't even say that we think giving an 18 year old a major league deal will hinder his development, something I actually disagree with but more on that in a second, they didn't take Porcello because he cost too much. Again this organization and Tom Hicks chose mediocrity over premium.
On a personal note: The Rangers have officially made me crazy. Listening to BaD Radio after the draft Dan made a very good point. He brought up my favorite definition of "crazy": doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Well I was hoping the Rangers would do whatever it took to get a top-level talent. Ever since the A-Rod signing, Tom Hicks has done his best Uncle Scrooge impersonation at every opportunity. The payroll is in the bottom quartile of the league, Texas has a General Manger and Field Manager who both make in the bottom five of their positions in the league. Hicks is far more concerned with turning a profit than doing everything it takes to win, or even more than the bare-freaking-what-can-I-get-away-with minimum. George Stienbrenner was once quoted as saying, "I'd rather over pay for a winner than under pay for a loser." Hicks doesn't share that view. I was crazy for thinking he did.
On giving a major league deal to a high school pitcher: in general it is not an optimum situation for sure, but I think the Rangers would have been in the best possible situation to make it work.
- They have a major need: Not breaking news here but the Rangers, even moreso than most teams, have historically needed high-ceiling young pitching.
- They could spare the roster spot: Oh no! John Reinicker can't stay now because we have Ric Porcello!
- They aren't going to contend soon: which is important when considering whether or not to allocate playing time to young guy. Porcello spends a couple years in the minors then is moved into long relief then the rotation. I don't think that's inherently damaging to a young guys career path.
P.S. Think three years from now the Rangers will spend a Rule 5 pick on someone? Don't know for sure, but the odds are pretty good; JD has already shown that he's not afraid to target Rule 5 guys, i.e. Fabio. So if the Rangers do Rule 5 someone in the next 3 or 4 years they are saying to us, the fans, that they aren't afraid of using a roster spot on a guy who may not contribute right away but that's ok. Now you can send a Rule 5 back down to the minors after the year's over, which you couldn't with Porcello on a major league deal....but Porcello would be 22 or 23 at that point and how much more time would he need in the minors anyway? Not much, that's for sure. The biggest difference?...and the real/only reason the Rangers will Rule 5 someone and never go after the Porcello's of the world = money! Rule 5 guys are cheap.
It's really hard even to fault Jonny Boy, because I'm sure the decision not to go way over slot money was passed down from above.
However it makes no sense to be cheap in player development!!! Teams overpay for mediocre free agents because they don't have anyone in their own farm system available. Going over slot bonus money, while frowned on by the Commish, is smart business. Companies that are continuously innovators in their fields are ones that spend the most on R&D... the Rangers don't spend any money on their R&D...or PR... but that's another rant!
Penny wise and pound foolish!
So now I would like to unveil the team the Rangers should have drafted, with the SportsBullies at GM and an Owner who actually knows baseball and cares about winning!
These crazy Bizzaro-Rangers would have added: Joe Savery RHP Rice, Ric Porcello RHP HS, Brett Cecil LHP Maryland, Wes Roemer RHP CSF, Corey Brown OF OSU, Tony Thomas Jr 2B FSU, Matt Harvey RHP HS, and Kyle Russell OF UT in the first 4 rounds. And Justin Friend RHP OSU, Chance Chapman RHP ORU, Logan Johnson UT UofL, Justin Baum 3B Pacific, Jordan Smith C TTU, Wes Etheridge P UC Irvine, Seth Garrison RHP Texas Christian, Brian Spear IF UK, and Collin DeLome OF Lamar U in the later rounds.
We'll take these guys over all 50+ the Rangers actually drafted.
Tuesday, June 5, 2007
Rangers Draft
I'm going to be pretty busy from now until the Draft, this Thursday, but I wanted to give a few more notes on the Rangers before the big day.
I don't have a great feel for how this draft is actually going to shake down, in terms of who will be picked where. But I'm going to try and give my best shot at a mock Rangers draft...the way it should be, not the way it will. We all know how historically smart the Rangers have been.
17th - Joe Savery LHP Rice : Savery is one of the best all around players in college. A 2-way player for the Owls, Savery posted a 2.91 ERA while leading the team in batting. Joe has a prototypical pitcher's frame, 6'3'' 215, and is very athletic. His fastball and change are far and away his two best pitches at this point, but he already has great control with those two pitches, and if he curve develops into a decent offering he'll have an effective repertoire. Savery is just a baseball player, and I like taking chances on guys like him. He's never focused solely on pitching, which makes you think there's room for some improvement there and he's really come on strong of late. His last few outing have been the best of the season, his velocity has been up after battling through a few injuries early in the season. I really like him, and doubt he'll still be there at 24...he may be gone by the time 17 comes up.
24th - Matt LaPorta 1B Florida : LaPorta might only be #2 on my board and Billy Beane's, that was meant to be a compliment to the Gator slugger. Just look at his current numbers: .423/.579/.853. He gets on base 58% of the time... 58! I realize a lot of you don't pay that much attention to college baseball, and I know they use metal bats...but that is really freakin good! He's top 20 in the country in batting average and runs scored, top 5 in OBP, SLUG, and HRs. I've talked a lot about LaPorta's numbers but here is a very intriguing number...3. Three is how many more times Matt has been hit by pitch than he has struck out. He's been beaned 18 times and only whiffed 15. Patience, Power and Bat Control... I've said it before and I'm sure I'll say it again in this blog and again when he's raking in the show... Matt LaPorta can hit. Despite the glowing review I've just giving him, LaPorta is still seen as a last half of the first round pick. Scouts question his defensive ability at first base, and while he will never win a gold glove I do think he's good enough (and yes I have seen him play multiple times in person and half a dozen more on TV) More pressing are injury issues, oblique strains cost him most of his junior season. He's clearly healthy now... and even if he's not just think of what he can do when he finally does get back to 100%!!! Texas has picks, 17, 24, 35, 44, 54 and 81 in the first two rounds and while everyone knows the Rangers have a constant need for pitching this farm system is anemic when it comes to impact bats. If LaPorta is still there at #24 and they pass him up I may not blog again for a while because I'll probably be wanted for murder.
35th - Corey Brown OF Ok State : Brown hasn't gotten much pub from the few other people covering the draft but this centerfielder's batting line should make people take notice, .358/.512/.791! He does have a high strikeout rate, but he reminds me a lot of a Brad Wilkerson (stop the jokes Ranger's fans...it's a compliment) or young Jeremy Burnitz type player... a guy with good power, good defense, great eye at the plate and decent speed. Very underrated guy who could end up being a 5-6 win player in the show.
44th - Wes Roemer RHP Cal State Fullerton : It really amazes me how one of the greatest pitchers in the history of college baseball has absolutely no buzz at all coming into the draft. Apparently scouts think he's Ty Detmer. Roemer was the Co-National Player of the Year last year, in '06 he started the season going 65.2 innings without issuing a walk. In 155 IP he K'ed 145 while walking 7...that's not a typeo, 7! All he did this year was increase his strikeout rate to 9.6 per 9 innings, but he did lose a lot of his control, he walked 22 in 127 innings this year. Rick Ankiel alert!! I've read that scouts see him as a set up man, not a starter which I really can't understand. He doesn't have ''overpowering stuff'' but he still gets tons of strike outs... he isn't very big (he's listed at 6' , 200 lbs and is probably smaller) but he's still thrown as many innings over the last two years as anyone in college ball, for a top tier team, hell he completed 6 games this year and no major league pitcher is going to do that! I'm sure JD will listen to the scouts who tell him that he can't get big league hitters out and pass on Roemer round after round after round until the A's get him. It really angers up my blood to know that there's a guy right here who will still be there in the 2nd or 3rd round and there is no way the Rangers draft him, but they'll have to deal with him in their own division for years!
54th - Brett Cecil LHP Maryland : Man, there's a bunch of good college lefties! Cecil has a nice fastball, low 90's, and his slider is virtually unhittable. Not very many amateurs have a big league pitch right now, Cecil does! Combine great stuff with flawless, repeatable mechanics, and dominating a high level of college play (8 saves, 62/19 K/BB) and you get a really, really good prospect. Some people view Cecil as just a LOOGY, but he did start for the Turtles late in the season and has the ability to get hitters out multiple times thru the order. Cecil for some reason could be had supplemental round, but he's legit.
80th - Tony Thomas Jr 2B FSU : The 2007 ACC Player of the Year would be the biggest ACC POY draft steal in Dallas since Josh Howard...ok maybe that's a pretty small group, but Thomas is really good! Tony is a great athlete, high school football star, who has really good speed, 30/35 in steal attempts this year. Now not many second basemen get drafted in the first round so position and a bad defensive rep will push him further down the draft boards than his talent would dictate. He really reminds me of Bill Hall, and could very well move to center in the pros. Like Hall, Thomas is a great hitter; .437/.530/.751 and lead D I in doubles with 32. I didn't cover him earlier because when you click on Thomas' name from the Seminole stats page it directs you to another player named Tony Thomas, who is only a freshman. Tony Thomas Jr however is a junior, and thus draft eligible.
110th - Eric Sogard 2B ASU : I have no idea where Sogard is projected to go in the draft, because no one is covering this damn thing and few people that are go with the stock Baseball America list and since I am refusing to buy a BA handbook, not because I don't like their work...they're pretty darned good at what they do but, because I want to see how I draft with a scouting budget of zero dollars. Sogard was the 2007 Pac-10 Defensive Player of the Year, which makes one think that he has the glove to slide over to short or at least be an asset up the middle. But this Sun Devil can hit a little too! Sogard had a line of .382/.483/.613. That combination of a really good eye at the plate and some pop in the bad is very appealing for a guy with a top notch glove. Sogard also has some speed, 17/22 on attempted thefts, and great bat control, just 22 K's in 217 AB's. He's small, 5'10'' 180, but the Phoenix area native went to a high school named Thunderbird, which has to get him some brownie points.
140th - Logan Johnson INF U of L : A guy I haven't covered until now! Johnson was used all over the field at Louisville and is the kind of player I really like, productive college guy with a good eye and little pop. He hit .367/.500/.679 for the Cardinals this year and while he's small, 5'9'' 180, he still hit 13 HRs and 26 Doubles...very respectable totals. Johnson's OBP is elevated due to the fact that he was hit by pitch 30 times this year, yes 30! Normally I would assume that that kind of number is just an outlier, an aberrantly high total, but he was hbp 25 times the year before! This guy could be the next Craig Biggio! Hurray for little scrappy guys who aren't afraid to take one for the team.
Other notes on Logan...his official college bio page lists some very interesting facts about him including: 1) His counts Mike Timlin as one of his favorite athletes. 2) Roush Racing is one his favorite teams. 3) Once wore a Sox cap in the RF bleachers at Yankee Stadium. 4) Collected rocks as a kid. 5) Faced U of L, and current Oakland Raider, footballer Michael Bush three times in HS - the best athlete he has ever faced.
And saving the best for last... his proudest moment 6) He was the 1987 Owensboro three and under Big Wheel champion.
170th - Chance Chapman RHP Oral Roberts : Ok, so maybe I stumbled upon his name after a Google search f-ed up. But I'm glad I found him because Chapman has put up some really sick numbers for the Golden Eagles this year. The 6'4'' senior righty threw 88 innings, splitting time between the bullpen and rotation. In those 88 frames, Chapman K'ed 121 opposing batters while issuing free passes to only 25. Me likey K/BB ratios of nearly 5/1! And guys who only surrender 2 long balls all year while playing in hitter's parks. Maybe that wasn't so eloquent, and I haven't seen anything about Chapman on any other site, meaning that Chance Chapman is a Sports Bully exclusive!
****
These picks only take us up to round 5, other guys I want the Rangers to focus on ... Mitch Canham C Oregon State, Brian Spear 3B Kentucky, Brian Friday SS Rice, Justin Baum 3B Pacific, Blake Stouffer OF TAMU, Trey Sutton 2B USM, Andrew Brackman P NC State, Wes Etheridge P UC Irvine, Seth Garrison RHP Texas Christian, Justin Friend P Ok State, James Adkins P Tenn, Bryan Henry P FSU, Aaron Poreda USF.
In the later rounds they should get toolsy young hitters and hard throwing pitchers in bulk. These guys don't have great success rates but there's so little investment from the organization in a guy drafted after the first few rounds that it pays to take risks. Note I prefer getting these guys after you've scouped up as many productive college players as you can take. In a 50 round draft, there's time to take flyers on enough of those guys so the odds of one of two panning out are decent if you give them good coaching in the low minor leagues.
And some guys I really want the Rangers to avoid! ... Mike Moustakas SS Chatsworth HS (CA), Jarrod Parker RHP Norwell HS (IN), Tim Alderson RHP Horizon HS (AZ), Nick Schmidt LHP Arkansas, Kyle Russell OF Texas, and most of all Julio Borbon OF Tennessee. I've seen Borbon's name attached to the Rangers in several mock drafts and I wouldn't put it past the front office to draft a leadoff hitter who drew 6 walks all season. At best Borbon could be a homeless man's Tom Goodwin...and that's not a big compliment. Now there is a need for a speedy centerfield/lead off hitter but reaching for a scrub like Borbon because you didn't get who you should have a few years ago would just compound the problem.
JJ is going to talk about his man crush before the draft. Hint: his last name rhymes with 'heaven'. I'll prolly be busy until after the draft but don't worry, I'll be here to rip all the decisions the little Rangers make!
Man I really hope they don't F--- this up!
I don't have a great feel for how this draft is actually going to shake down, in terms of who will be picked where. But I'm going to try and give my best shot at a mock Rangers draft...the way it should be, not the way it will. We all know how historically smart the Rangers have been.
17th - Joe Savery LHP Rice : Savery is one of the best all around players in college. A 2-way player for the Owls, Savery posted a 2.91 ERA while leading the team in batting. Joe has a prototypical pitcher's frame, 6'3'' 215, and is very athletic. His fastball and change are far and away his two best pitches at this point, but he already has great control with those two pitches, and if he curve develops into a decent offering he'll have an effective repertoire. Savery is just a baseball player, and I like taking chances on guys like him. He's never focused solely on pitching, which makes you think there's room for some improvement there and he's really come on strong of late. His last few outing have been the best of the season, his velocity has been up after battling through a few injuries early in the season. I really like him, and doubt he'll still be there at 24...he may be gone by the time 17 comes up.
24th - Matt LaPorta 1B Florida : LaPorta might only be #2 on my board and Billy Beane's, that was meant to be a compliment to the Gator slugger. Just look at his current numbers: .423/.579/.853. He gets on base 58% of the time... 58! I realize a lot of you don't pay that much attention to college baseball, and I know they use metal bats...but that is really freakin good! He's top 20 in the country in batting average and runs scored, top 5 in OBP, SLUG, and HRs. I've talked a lot about LaPorta's numbers but here is a very intriguing number...3. Three is how many more times Matt has been hit by pitch than he has struck out. He's been beaned 18 times and only whiffed 15. Patience, Power and Bat Control... I've said it before and I'm sure I'll say it again in this blog and again when he's raking in the show... Matt LaPorta can hit. Despite the glowing review I've just giving him, LaPorta is still seen as a last half of the first round pick. Scouts question his defensive ability at first base, and while he will never win a gold glove I do think he's good enough (and yes I have seen him play multiple times in person and half a dozen more on TV) More pressing are injury issues, oblique strains cost him most of his junior season. He's clearly healthy now... and even if he's not just think of what he can do when he finally does get back to 100%!!! Texas has picks, 17, 24, 35, 44, 54 and 81 in the first two rounds and while everyone knows the Rangers have a constant need for pitching this farm system is anemic when it comes to impact bats. If LaPorta is still there at #24 and they pass him up I may not blog again for a while because I'll probably be wanted for murder.
35th - Corey Brown OF Ok State : Brown hasn't gotten much pub from the few other people covering the draft but this centerfielder's batting line should make people take notice, .358/.512/.791! He does have a high strikeout rate, but he reminds me a lot of a Brad Wilkerson (stop the jokes Ranger's fans...it's a compliment) or young Jeremy Burnitz type player... a guy with good power, good defense, great eye at the plate and decent speed. Very underrated guy who could end up being a 5-6 win player in the show.
44th - Wes Roemer RHP Cal State Fullerton : It really amazes me how one of the greatest pitchers in the history of college baseball has absolutely no buzz at all coming into the draft. Apparently scouts think he's Ty Detmer. Roemer was the Co-National Player of the Year last year, in '06 he started the season going 65.2 innings without issuing a walk. In 155 IP he K'ed 145 while walking 7...that's not a typeo, 7! All he did this year was increase his strikeout rate to 9.6 per 9 innings, but he did lose a lot of his control, he walked 22 in 127 innings this year. Rick Ankiel alert!! I've read that scouts see him as a set up man, not a starter which I really can't understand. He doesn't have ''overpowering stuff'' but he still gets tons of strike outs... he isn't very big (he's listed at 6' , 200 lbs and is probably smaller) but he's still thrown as many innings over the last two years as anyone in college ball, for a top tier team, hell he completed 6 games this year and no major league pitcher is going to do that! I'm sure JD will listen to the scouts who tell him that he can't get big league hitters out and pass on Roemer round after round after round until the A's get him. It really angers up my blood to know that there's a guy right here who will still be there in the 2nd or 3rd round and there is no way the Rangers draft him, but they'll have to deal with him in their own division for years!
54th - Brett Cecil LHP Maryland : Man, there's a bunch of good college lefties! Cecil has a nice fastball, low 90's, and his slider is virtually unhittable. Not very many amateurs have a big league pitch right now, Cecil does! Combine great stuff with flawless, repeatable mechanics, and dominating a high level of college play (8 saves, 62/19 K/BB) and you get a really, really good prospect. Some people view Cecil as just a LOOGY, but he did start for the Turtles late in the season and has the ability to get hitters out multiple times thru the order. Cecil for some reason could be had supplemental round, but he's legit.
80th - Tony Thomas Jr 2B FSU : The 2007 ACC Player of the Year would be the biggest ACC POY draft steal in Dallas since Josh Howard...ok maybe that's a pretty small group, but Thomas is really good! Tony is a great athlete, high school football star, who has really good speed, 30/35 in steal attempts this year. Now not many second basemen get drafted in the first round so position and a bad defensive rep will push him further down the draft boards than his talent would dictate. He really reminds me of Bill Hall, and could very well move to center in the pros. Like Hall, Thomas is a great hitter; .437/.530/.751 and lead D I in doubles with 32. I didn't cover him earlier because when you click on Thomas' name from the Seminole stats page it directs you to another player named Tony Thomas, who is only a freshman. Tony Thomas Jr however is a junior, and thus draft eligible.
110th - Eric Sogard 2B ASU : I have no idea where Sogard is projected to go in the draft, because no one is covering this damn thing and few people that are go with the stock Baseball America list and since I am refusing to buy a BA handbook, not because I don't like their work...they're pretty darned good at what they do but, because I want to see how I draft with a scouting budget of zero dollars. Sogard was the 2007 Pac-10 Defensive Player of the Year, which makes one think that he has the glove to slide over to short or at least be an asset up the middle. But this Sun Devil can hit a little too! Sogard had a line of .382/.483/.613. That combination of a really good eye at the plate and some pop in the bad is very appealing for a guy with a top notch glove. Sogard also has some speed, 17/22 on attempted thefts, and great bat control, just 22 K's in 217 AB's. He's small, 5'10'' 180, but the Phoenix area native went to a high school named Thunderbird, which has to get him some brownie points.
140th - Logan Johnson INF U of L : A guy I haven't covered until now! Johnson was used all over the field at Louisville and is the kind of player I really like, productive college guy with a good eye and little pop. He hit .367/.500/.679 for the Cardinals this year and while he's small, 5'9'' 180, he still hit 13 HRs and 26 Doubles...very respectable totals. Johnson's OBP is elevated due to the fact that he was hit by pitch 30 times this year, yes 30! Normally I would assume that that kind of number is just an outlier, an aberrantly high total, but he was hbp 25 times the year before! This guy could be the next Craig Biggio! Hurray for little scrappy guys who aren't afraid to take one for the team.
Other notes on Logan...his official college bio page lists some very interesting facts about him including: 1) His counts Mike Timlin as one of his favorite athletes. 2) Roush Racing is one his favorite teams. 3) Once wore a Sox cap in the RF bleachers at Yankee Stadium. 4) Collected rocks as a kid. 5) Faced U of L, and current Oakland Raider, footballer Michael Bush three times in HS - the best athlete he has ever faced.
And saving the best for last... his proudest moment 6) He was the 1987 Owensboro three and under Big Wheel champion.
170th - Chance Chapman RHP Oral Roberts : Ok, so maybe I stumbled upon his name after a Google search f-ed up. But I'm glad I found him because Chapman has put up some really sick numbers for the Golden Eagles this year. The 6'4'' senior righty threw 88 innings, splitting time between the bullpen and rotation. In those 88 frames, Chapman K'ed 121 opposing batters while issuing free passes to only 25. Me likey K/BB ratios of nearly 5/1! And guys who only surrender 2 long balls all year while playing in hitter's parks. Maybe that wasn't so eloquent, and I haven't seen anything about Chapman on any other site, meaning that Chance Chapman is a Sports Bully exclusive!
****
These picks only take us up to round 5, other guys I want the Rangers to focus on ... Mitch Canham C Oregon State, Brian Spear 3B Kentucky, Brian Friday SS Rice, Justin Baum 3B Pacific, Blake Stouffer OF TAMU, Trey Sutton 2B USM, Andrew Brackman P NC State, Wes Etheridge P UC Irvine, Seth Garrison RHP Texas Christian, Justin Friend P Ok State, James Adkins P Tenn, Bryan Henry P FSU, Aaron Poreda USF.
In the later rounds they should get toolsy young hitters and hard throwing pitchers in bulk. These guys don't have great success rates but there's so little investment from the organization in a guy drafted after the first few rounds that it pays to take risks. Note I prefer getting these guys after you've scouped up as many productive college players as you can take. In a 50 round draft, there's time to take flyers on enough of those guys so the odds of one of two panning out are decent if you give them good coaching in the low minor leagues.
And some guys I really want the Rangers to avoid! ... Mike Moustakas SS Chatsworth HS (CA), Jarrod Parker RHP Norwell HS (IN), Tim Alderson RHP Horizon HS (AZ), Nick Schmidt LHP Arkansas, Kyle Russell OF Texas, and most of all Julio Borbon OF Tennessee. I've seen Borbon's name attached to the Rangers in several mock drafts and I wouldn't put it past the front office to draft a leadoff hitter who drew 6 walks all season. At best Borbon could be a homeless man's Tom Goodwin...and that's not a big compliment. Now there is a need for a speedy centerfield/lead off hitter but reaching for a scrub like Borbon because you didn't get who you should have a few years ago would just compound the problem.
JJ is going to talk about his man crush before the draft. Hint: his last name rhymes with 'heaven'. I'll prolly be busy until after the draft but don't worry, I'll be here to rip all the decisions the little Rangers make!
Man I really hope they don't F--- this up!
Saturday, June 2, 2007
Even More Baseball Prospects!!
Since hundreds of you are clamoring for more, here it is... more baseball draft prospects!!!! woo!!! For those of you new to this series here at Sports Bullies, I believe that I can scout better for the baseball draft than the Rangers front office. I will make my evaluations only studying for a very small amount of time, and spending no money on "insider" information. It is not that I think I'm the smartest baseball mind on earth, but I'm prolly top 25, I just have no faith in the Rangers' front office. So Sports Bullies is here to give you a guide to baseball.
This post won't be as long as the previous one, just scroll down to check out a lot of the college pitchers, what I want to do in this one is touch one a few guys that I really, really want the Rangers to draft. Guys that would be priority targets if I was running the draft, and I'm sure they will have better careers than the guys the Rangers actually get.
Wes Roemer RHP CSF - It really amazes me how one of the greatest pitchers in the history of college baseball has absolutely no buzz at all coming into the draft. Apparently scouts think he's Ty Detmer. Roemer was the Co-National Player of the Year last year, in '06 he started the season going 65.2 innings without issuing a walk. In 155 IP he K'ed 145 while walking 7...that's not a typeo, 7! All he did this year was increase his strikeout rate to 9.6 per 9 innings, but he did lose a lot of his control, he walked 22 in 127 innings this year. Rick Ankiel alert!! I've read that scouts see him as a set up man, not a starter which I really can't understand. He doesn't have ''overpowering stuff'' but he still gets tons of strike outs... he isn't very big (he's listed at 6' , 200 lbs and is probably smaller) but he's still thrown as many innings over the last two years as anyone in college ball, for a top tier team, hell he completed 6 games this year and no major league pitcher is going to do that! I'm sure JD will listen to the scouts who tell him that he can't get big league hitters out and pass on Roemer round after round after round until the A's get him. It really angers up my blood to know that there's a guy right here who will still be there in the 2nd or 3rd round and there is no way the Rangers draft him, but they'll have to deal with him in their own division for years!
Tony Thomas Jr 2B FSU - The 2007 ACC Player of the Year would be the biggest ACC POY draft steal in Dallas since Josh Howard...ok maybe that's a pretty small group, but Thomas is really good! Tony is a great athlete, high school football star, who has really good speed, 30/35 in steal attempts this year. Now not many second basemen get drafted in the first round so position and a bad defensive rep will push him further down the draft boards than his talent would dictate. He really reminds me of Bill Hall, and could very well move to center in the pros. Like Hall, Thomas is a great hitter; .437/.530/.751 and lead D I in doubles with 32. I didn't cover him earlier because when you click on Thomas' name from the Seminole stats page it directs you to another player named Tony Thomas, who is only a freshman. Tony Thomas Jr however is a junior, and thus draft eligible.
Eric Sogard 2B ASU - I have no idea where Sogard is projected to go in the draft, because no one is covering this damn thing and few people that are go with the stock Baseball America list and since I am refusing to buy a BA handbook, not because I don't like their work...they're pretty darned good at what they do but, because I want to see how I draft with a scouting budget of zero dollars. Sogard was the 2007 Pac-10 Defensive Player of the Year, which makes one think that he has the glove to slide over to short or at least be an asset up the middle. But this Sun Devil can hit a little too! Sogard had a line of .382/.483/.613. That combination of a really good eye at the plate and some pop in the bad is very appealing for a guy with a top notch glove. Sogard also has some speed, 17/22 on attempted thefts, and great bat control, just 22 K's in 217 AB's. He's small, 5'10'' 180, but the Phoenix area native went to a high school named Thunderbird, which has to get him some brownie points.
So there are few guys that won't be first round picks, but still have a great shot of making it to the pros. I'll be back with more sleepers and such as the draft draws nearer and then have a full draft recap complete with the "Who-they-should-have-drafted" pick by pick analysis.
JD, the balls in your court buddy.
This post won't be as long as the previous one, just scroll down to check out a lot of the college pitchers, what I want to do in this one is touch one a few guys that I really, really want the Rangers to draft. Guys that would be priority targets if I was running the draft, and I'm sure they will have better careers than the guys the Rangers actually get.
Wes Roemer RHP CSF - It really amazes me how one of the greatest pitchers in the history of college baseball has absolutely no buzz at all coming into the draft. Apparently scouts think he's Ty Detmer. Roemer was the Co-National Player of the Year last year, in '06 he started the season going 65.2 innings without issuing a walk. In 155 IP he K'ed 145 while walking 7...that's not a typeo, 7! All he did this year was increase his strikeout rate to 9.6 per 9 innings, but he did lose a lot of his control, he walked 22 in 127 innings this year. Rick Ankiel alert!! I've read that scouts see him as a set up man, not a starter which I really can't understand. He doesn't have ''overpowering stuff'' but he still gets tons of strike outs... he isn't very big (he's listed at 6' , 200 lbs and is probably smaller) but he's still thrown as many innings over the last two years as anyone in college ball, for a top tier team, hell he completed 6 games this year and no major league pitcher is going to do that! I'm sure JD will listen to the scouts who tell him that he can't get big league hitters out and pass on Roemer round after round after round until the A's get him. It really angers up my blood to know that there's a guy right here who will still be there in the 2nd or 3rd round and there is no way the Rangers draft him, but they'll have to deal with him in their own division for years!
Tony Thomas Jr 2B FSU - The 2007 ACC Player of the Year would be the biggest ACC POY draft steal in Dallas since Josh Howard...ok maybe that's a pretty small group, but Thomas is really good! Tony is a great athlete, high school football star, who has really good speed, 30/35 in steal attempts this year. Now not many second basemen get drafted in the first round so position and a bad defensive rep will push him further down the draft boards than his talent would dictate. He really reminds me of Bill Hall, and could very well move to center in the pros. Like Hall, Thomas is a great hitter; .437/.530/.751 and lead D I in doubles with 32. I didn't cover him earlier because when you click on Thomas' name from the Seminole stats page it directs you to another player named Tony Thomas, who is only a freshman. Tony Thomas Jr however is a junior, and thus draft eligible.
Eric Sogard 2B ASU - I have no idea where Sogard is projected to go in the draft, because no one is covering this damn thing and few people that are go with the stock Baseball America list and since I am refusing to buy a BA handbook, not because I don't like their work...they're pretty darned good at what they do but, because I want to see how I draft with a scouting budget of zero dollars. Sogard was the 2007 Pac-10 Defensive Player of the Year, which makes one think that he has the glove to slide over to short or at least be an asset up the middle. But this Sun Devil can hit a little too! Sogard had a line of .382/.483/.613. That combination of a really good eye at the plate and some pop in the bad is very appealing for a guy with a top notch glove. Sogard also has some speed, 17/22 on attempted thefts, and great bat control, just 22 K's in 217 AB's. He's small, 5'10'' 180, but the Phoenix area native went to a high school named Thunderbird, which has to get him some brownie points.
So there are few guys that won't be first round picks, but still have a great shot of making it to the pros. I'll be back with more sleepers and such as the draft draws nearer and then have a full draft recap complete with the "Who-they-should-have-drafted" pick by pick analysis.
JD, the balls in your court buddy.
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