Rangers Draft

I'm going to be pretty busy from now until the Draft, this Thursday, but I wanted to give a few more notes on the Rangers before the big day.

I don't have a great feel for how this draft is actually going to shake down, in terms of who will be picked where. But I'm going to try and give my best shot at a mock Rangers draft...the way it should be, not the way it will. We all know how historically smart the Rangers have been.

17th - Joe Savery LHP Rice : Savery is one of the best all around players in college. A 2-way player for the Owls, Savery posted a 2.91 ERA while leading the team in batting. Joe has a prototypical pitcher's frame, 6'3'' 215, and is very athletic. His fastball and change are far and away his two best pitches at this point, but he already has great control with those two pitches, and if he curve develops into a decent offering he'll have an effective repertoire. Savery is just a baseball player, and I like taking chances on guys like him. He's never focused solely on pitching, which makes you think there's room for some improvement there and he's really come on strong of late. His last few outing have been the best of the season, his velocity has been up after battling through a few injuries early in the season. I really like him, and doubt he'll still be there at 24...he may be gone by the time 17 comes up.

24th - Matt LaPorta 1B Florida : LaPorta might only be #2 on my board and Billy Beane's, that was meant to be a compliment to the Gator slugger. Just look at his current numbers: .423/.579/.853. He gets on base 58% of the time... 58! I realize a lot of you don't pay that much attention to college baseball, and I know they use metal bats...but that is really freakin good! He's top 20 in the country in batting average and runs scored, top 5 in OBP, SLUG, and HRs. I've talked a lot about LaPorta's numbers but here is a very intriguing number...3. Three is how many more times Matt has been hit by pitch than he has struck out. He's been beaned 18 times and only whiffed 15. Patience, Power and Bat Control... I've said it before and I'm sure I'll say it again in this blog and again when he's raking in the show... Matt LaPorta can hit. Despite the glowing review I've just giving him, LaPorta is still seen as a last half of the first round pick. Scouts question his defensive ability at first base, and while he will never win a gold glove I do think he's good enough (and yes I have seen him play multiple times in person and half a dozen more on TV) More pressing are injury issues, oblique strains cost him most of his junior season. He's clearly healthy now... and even if he's not just think of what he can do when he finally does get back to 100%!!! Texas has picks, 17, 24, 35, 44, 54 and 81 in the first two rounds and while everyone knows the Rangers have a constant need for pitching this farm system is anemic when it comes to impact bats. If LaPorta is still there at #24 and they pass him up I may not blog again for a while because I'll probably be wanted for murder.

35th - Corey Brown OF Ok State : Brown hasn't gotten much pub from the few other people covering the draft but this centerfielder's batting line should make people take notice, .358/.512/.791! He does have a high strikeout rate, but he reminds me a lot of a Brad Wilkerson (stop the jokes Ranger's fans...it's a compliment) or young Jeremy Burnitz type player... a guy with good power, good defense, great eye at the plate and decent speed. Very underrated guy who could end up being a 5-6 win player in the show.

44th - Wes Roemer RHP Cal State Fullerton : It really amazes me how one of the greatest pitchers in the history of college baseball has absolutely no buzz at all coming into the draft. Apparently scouts think he's Ty Detmer. Roemer was the Co-National Player of the Year last year, in '06 he started the season going 65.2 innings without issuing a walk. In 155 IP he K'ed 145 while walking 7...that's not a typeo, 7! All he did this year was increase his strikeout rate to 9.6 per 9 innings, but he did lose a lot of his control, he walked 22 in 127 innings this year. Rick Ankiel alert!! I've read that scouts see him as a set up man, not a starter which I really can't understand. He doesn't have ''overpowering stuff'' but he still gets tons of strike outs... he isn't very big (he's listed at 6' , 200 lbs and is probably smaller) but he's still thrown as many innings over the last two years as anyone in college ball, for a top tier team, hell he completed 6 games this year and no major league pitcher is going to do that! I'm sure JD will listen to the scouts who tell him that he can't get big league hitters out and pass on Roemer round after round after round until the A's get him. It really angers up my blood to know that there's a guy right here who will still be there in the 2nd or 3rd round and there is no way the Rangers draft him, but they'll have to deal with him in their own division for years!

54th - Brett Cecil LHP Maryland : Man, there's a bunch of good college lefties! Cecil has a nice fastball, low 90's, and his slider is virtually unhittable. Not very many amateurs have a big league pitch right now, Cecil does! Combine great stuff with flawless, repeatable mechanics, and dominating a high level of college play (8 saves, 62/19 K/BB) and you get a really, really good prospect. Some people view Cecil as just a LOOGY, but he did start for the Turtles late in the season and has the ability to get hitters out multiple times thru the order. Cecil for some reason could be had supplemental round, but he's legit.

80th - Tony Thomas Jr 2B FSU : The 2007 ACC Player of the Year would be the biggest ACC POY draft steal in Dallas since Josh Howard...ok maybe that's a pretty small group, but Thomas is really good! Tony is a great athlete, high school football star, who has really good speed, 30/35 in steal attempts this year. Now not many second basemen get drafted in the first round so position and a bad defensive rep will push him further down the draft boards than his talent would dictate. He really reminds me of Bill Hall, and could very well move to center in the pros. Like Hall, Thomas is a great hitter; .437/.530/.751 and lead D I in doubles with 32. I didn't cover him earlier because when you click on Thomas' name from the Seminole stats page it directs you to another player named Tony Thomas, who is only a freshman. Tony Thomas Jr however is a junior, and thus draft eligible.

110th - Eric Sogard 2B ASU : I have no idea where Sogard is projected to go in the draft, because no one is covering this damn thing and few people that are go with the stock Baseball America list and since I am refusing to buy a BA handbook, not because I don't like their work...they're pretty darned good at what they do but, because I want to see how I draft with a scouting budget of zero dollars. Sogard was the 2007 Pac-10 Defensive Player of the Year, which makes one think that he has the glove to slide over to short or at least be an asset up the middle. But this Sun Devil can hit a little too! Sogard had a line of .382/.483/.613. That combination of a really good eye at the plate and some pop in the bad is very appealing for a guy with a top notch glove. Sogard also has some speed, 17/22 on attempted thefts, and great bat control, just 22 K's in 217 AB's. He's small, 5'10'' 180, but the Phoenix area native went to a high school named Thunderbird, which has to get him some brownie points.

140th - Logan Johnson INF U of L : A guy I haven't covered until now! Johnson was used all over the field at Louisville and is the kind of player I really like, productive college guy with a good eye and little pop. He hit .367/.500/.679 for the Cardinals this year and while he's small, 5'9'' 180, he still hit 13 HRs and 26 Doubles...very respectable totals. Johnson's OBP is elevated due to the fact that he was hit by pitch 30 times this year, yes 30! Normally I would assume that that kind of number is just an outlier, an aberrantly high total, but he was hbp 25 times the year before! This guy could be the next Craig Biggio! Hurray for little scrappy guys who aren't afraid to take one for the team.

Other notes on Logan...his official college bio page lists some very interesting facts about him including: 1) His counts Mike Timlin as one of his favorite athletes. 2) Roush Racing is one his favorite teams. 3) Once wore a Sox cap in the RF bleachers at Yankee Stadium. 4) Collected rocks as a kid. 5) Faced U of L, and current Oakland Raider, footballer Michael Bush three times in HS - the best athlete he has ever faced.

And saving the best for last... his proudest moment 6) He was the 1987 Owensboro three and under Big Wheel champion.

170th - Chance Chapman RHP Oral Roberts : Ok, so maybe I stumbled upon his name after a Google search f-ed up. But I'm glad I found him because Chapman has put up some really sick numbers for the Golden Eagles this year. The 6'4'' senior righty threw 88 innings, splitting time between the bullpen and rotation. In those 88 frames, Chapman K'ed 121 opposing batters while issuing free passes to only 25. Me likey K/BB ratios of nearly 5/1! And guys who only surrender 2 long balls all year while playing in hitter's parks. Maybe that wasn't so eloquent, and I haven't seen anything about Chapman on any other site, meaning that Chance Chapman is a Sports Bully exclusive!

****

These picks only take us up to round 5, other guys I want the Rangers to focus on ... Mitch Canham C Oregon State, Brian Spear 3B Kentucky, Brian Friday SS Rice, Justin Baum 3B Pacific, Blake Stouffer OF TAMU, Trey Sutton 2B USM, Andrew Brackman P NC State, Wes Etheridge P UC Irvine, Seth Garrison RHP Texas Christian, Justin Friend P Ok State, James Adkins P Tenn, Bryan Henry P FSU, Aaron Poreda USF.

In the later rounds they should get toolsy young hitters and hard throwing pitchers in bulk. These guys don't have great success rates but there's so little investment from the organization in a guy drafted after the first few rounds that it pays to take risks. Note I prefer getting these guys after you've scouped up as many productive college players as you can take. In a 50 round draft, there's time to take flyers on enough of those guys so the odds of one of two panning out are decent if you give them good coaching in the low minor leagues.

And some guys I really want the Rangers to avoid! ... Mike Moustakas SS Chatsworth HS (CA), Jarrod Parker RHP Norwell HS (IN), Tim Alderson RHP Horizon HS (AZ), Nick Schmidt LHP Arkansas, Kyle Russell OF Texas, and most of all Julio Borbon OF Tennessee. I've seen Borbon's name attached to the Rangers in several mock drafts and I wouldn't put it past the front office to draft a leadoff hitter who drew 6 walks all season. At best Borbon could be a homeless man's Tom Goodwin...and that's not a big compliment. Now there is a need for a speedy centerfield/lead off hitter but reaching for a scrub like Borbon because you didn't get who you should have a few years ago would just compound the problem.

JJ is going to talk about his man crush before the draft. Hint: his last name rhymes with 'heaven'. I'll prolly be busy until after the draft but don't worry, I'll be here to rip all the decisions the little Rangers make!

Man I really hope they don't F--- this up!