Early Baseball Look

Just had my 2008 College Baseball Draft Rankings posted up on Project Prospect.

I was proud of the work I was able to do last year leading up to the MLB draft and this year the draft coverage will be much, MUCH deeper. There are a few guys I already think I missed on (underrating Jarrod Parker and Jordan Zimmerman and overrating Wes Roemer.) I will still have my Ranger based coverage on here but the majority of the work will be on Project Prospect.

It's Finally Done

One really funny note from Cuban's blog : "The difficult. Saying goodbye to Devin, Gana and Trenton. All 3 are great guys in every way...I also think this will be a great chance for Mo Ager to start fresh."

Not so much Ager love huh? I guess they wanted Less Ager!!!!!! hahahahahahahahhahaahahahah!

I'm hilarious

**Sorry. This entire situation has driven me insane.**

I love the Mavericks for their player development philosophy and progressive attitudes in every facet of the game as much as for their success, or affinity for players, or Avery, or the fact that their my home town team.

I love the Mavs. I will always love the Mavs. It angers me when I see something that I've invested so much emotionally in doing something that hurts it.

Jason Kidd is at best a small marginal upgrade at PG and quite possibly a small downgrade. This teams' offense was an elite unit...when everyone was healthy.

January 27th may be the worst day in recent Maverick history. On that day Devin Harris got hurt.

Stack, Damp, Josh, Diop, and Dirk have all missed time and/or been at <100% for almost all of the time between now and then. Since that time Dallas has struggled some on the court. The half court offense has stagnated with JJB running the point. Defense has suffered. There has seemed to be less joy. LA and Pheonix both made splashy moves that got the talking heads on ESPN gushing about their new improved - or "improved" in the case of the Suns' - rosters and all but gaven them the trophy.

I believe Cuban and Donnie and the rest of the Mavs brass got suckered into making a panic move. At least half of the top 8 guys were banged up or MIA, they didn't play as well as they are capable - but still better than anyone in Miami or New York or half a dozen other NBA cities wish their teams could play - they wanted to get back into the limelight.

More from Cubes, "I think the spark and excitement that JKidd will bring is more than just what his talent offers. There is a reason why Kobe and Lebron were lobbying management to bring JKidd in. We think he will recharge the batteries of not just our players, but the organization, fans, media and even merchandise and advertising sales."

I'm not mad at Cuban for saying that. He's a business man so of course this a good short term move for him.

I can't just look at the trade with those green colored glasses though.

The idea that once the deal Mavs and Nets played just the tip with the deal, and it was reported as "imment" that they couldn't go back. I call bullshit. Mo Ager is the only guy in the deal that hasn't been traded in his career...is it really going to effect his game that much?

Maybe Devin sulked upon first hearing the news. Would you want a leader on your team to be happy about going from a team with a legit shot of winning it all to a team where the 6K fans in their old high school gym every night are just wondering about ping pong balls? He's a pro, he could have been just fine back here. Pandora's box wasn't opened. Ask Tony Parkder how it feels to be a young PG on a championship level team and your organization almost bring in Jason Kidd to usurp you.

I love Jason Kidd. I honestly think that he may be the greatest point guard of all time, at least top 3 and in the discussion. He's unquestionablly the best all around 1 of my generation. Him being a former Mav I got to see him up close at the beginning of his career and have followed him closely ever since.

He's a much better passer than Devin. But that's the only spot where we can expect a huge improvement. J-Kidd is the best rebounding PG who's not 6'9'' of all time, but almost all of those boards are defense and Dallas is a really good defensive rebounding team. Maybe loosing Diop - a fantastic rebounder - the Mavs will send Dirk upcourt faster leaving open boards for Kidd to try and start a fast break. Do you really think Avery is going to tell Dirk not to rebound? Me either. Kidd's rebounding numbers are already way down since Josh Boone has been back in the lineup; without him NJ was one of the worst rebounding teams in the league...lots of loose boards for Kidd to pick up.

As bad a shooter as Harris is, Kidd is worse. He releases the ball too low and too far out in front of him, he has a line drive stroke that has always kept down his FG%. Kidd doesn't have the speed to drive past really quick guards anymore, so people leave him space to brick 20 footers. Kidd is still a good defender but will have problems against the Tony Parkers, Chris Pauls, and Steve Nashs of the world. He can D up bigger guards like nobody's business and post up smaller guards offensivley but the Mavs just traded away the best defensive 1 in the league for a guy who was better...5 years ago. Kidd's turnover rate has spiked significantly this year.

Maybe Jason will hope in the 'Juvination Machine and be amped up to play D against the elite guards in the West. Maybe Dallas will get out and run more, and actually be able to run a pick and roll in a halfcourt set. Maybe Kidd will hit those shots in clutch times like he's done so often before. Maybe his playoff savy-ness and guts and heart and determination and sheer strength of will will take this team to the promise land. Maybe Dallas has another trade in the shadows to bring in some depth on the front line, a defensive presense down low. I sure hope.

But I wouldn't have traded a 24 year old PG who's one of the top 6-7 in the league with potential to be top 3 AS WELL AS my best low post defender - in the conference where I could concievably have to play some combination of David West, Tyson Chandler, Carlos Boozer, Amare, Shaq, Bynum, Gasol, and Tim Duncan just to get to the finals - AND two first round picks just to find out when my team was already championship caliber and my window in which I could realistically win it all was at least 3 years longer before the trade than after.

2008 MVP

Devean George!

The Return of J-Kidd

This from Devin Harris' wiki page "Devin Lamar Harris (born February 27, 1983, in Milwaukee, Wisconsin) is an American basketball player for the New Jersey Nets." at 2:39pm on 2/13. Hurray for the immediate news cycle we now live in. Before this trade is done, it is done.

ESPN: "Although sources say that the teams are still sorting out final details, this deal was described as "imminent" by multiple sources close to the process after negotiations moved to an advanced stage Tuesday night. The deal -- salvaged from talks on a three-way trade with Portland that developed and fizzled quickly two weeks ago -- has Dallas sending 24-year-old point guard Devin Harris, veteran swingman Jerry Stackhouse, the expiring contracts of center DeSagana Diop and swingman Devean George and guard Maurice Ager to New Jersey for Kidd and forward Malik Allen. "

Devin, Diop, George, Mo and Stack for Kidd and Malik Allen.

I don't like this trade. I don't like getting 10 years older at the 1 spot. Even though Kidd is an upgrade over Devin, Devin is really good and has taken a huge step forward this season after being given the big contract extension. Devin Harris kills Tony Parker. This team was developed in order to beat the Spurs, and this team would beat the Spares in a 7 game series. I have total faith in that. I think that this team, pre trade, is a championship calliber team. Apparently Donnie Nelson doesn't. I hate making a panic move. The Lakers and Suns add big names but Shaq is 50 years old and a terrible fit for their scheme, Pau is soft and has never won a playoff game - not series....GAME! in his life. The Mavs may have opened the window a little larger for themselves this year, but they slammed it shut 3 years from now.

I don't like loosing Diop, who plays D on Duncan better than almost anyone in the league. The Lakers and Suns just added bigs and we're now stuck with Erica Dampier, and .... Ju Ho?? Bass who would stomped by Shaq... Malik Allen - who apparently is an professional basketball player?

I hate losing Stack. He gives us scoring and toughness off the bench. The Nets may buy him out - and I assume that there is a tacit agreement in place for this deal to go through that the Nets will buy out Stack's contract and he will return to the Mavs after 30 days.

Lets look at the crux of this deal... Kidd and Devin.

While Mr Triple Double is approaching is 35th year on earth, he's still a great, GREAT point guard.

Kidd's passing ability is legendary but his rebounding is his most remarkable skill. Last season he set a modern era record for short guy rebouding, grabbing 13.2 % of his teams boards, while his rate is down slightly this year (12.6) it is still the good for 4th on the list.

The Nets are not a very good team, they have been outscored by 3.6 points per 100 possesions with Kidd on the floor. With Kidd sitting on the bench they have been outscored by 10.6 pp100p. With Kidd on the floor the Nets have scored an average of 105.6 pp100p, without Kidd just 96.8.

Despite Kidd's defensive rep, he has lost at least half of step over the years. He now longer has the footspeed to stay in front of the quickest guards. He can switch onto big SG's ... Kobe?

Kidd however has always been a poor shooter, and is having a really bad season shooting the ball. The Nets as a team shoot much better when Kidd's on the floor than not (47.8% - 44.9%)

** Question from JJ, "How were the Nets able to acquire Kidd for Stephon Marbary, and we have to give up sooooo much for an older Kidd who's now about to be past his prime???"

Kidd's not the problem...in two years Kidd's the problem.

Devin is one of the best young PG's in the league. He's a human blur, he consistantly gets to the rack -- something Kidd doesn't do -- and he's actually an elite defender. He's a solid passer, but a great drive and dish PG who's just getting better.

If Dirk was three years older I think this move makes sense (like Pheonix adding an old Shaq to team with old Nash...didn't we not sign Nash because we didn't want an old PG?!??!?!?!?!?????) Dallas was set to make a run over the next 4-6 years but now we're just looking at the next 1-2 years.

If we win a ring this year the deal is ok. But there will always be the what if's with Devin making East All-Star teams over the next decade and in 2 years when JJB is our starting PG all we can do is look to the rafters, reflect, and then ponder why we are now wasting the last few years of Dirk and Josh's prime.

Suns' New Offense

Via a secret hookup I've been able to get my hands on the Pheonix Suns' new offensive plays.

When I think European, fast-break offense...I think Shaq!

Great day in Mavs land as the Steve Kerr seems hell bent on destroying the Suns. Pheonix was on it's last legs before the trade and make themselves marginally worse in the abstract and much worse given the specific schemes of Mike Dan Tony and the Suns krewe - sorry, missing Mardi Gras.

The Massive Luminous Balls of Plasma Burning Due to Nuclear Fusion's have never had a deep squad and just depleted it while symotaniously getting older, slower, and one of the worst contracts in the game.

The guys at Basketball Prospectus shared their view of the trade and had generally the same outlook...What was Steve Kerr doing? Miami now has a really good rebuilding oppurtunity.


February 6, 2008Court VisionShaq to the Suns
by Bradford Doolittle
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With the move of Shaquille O’Neal to Phoenix for Shawn Marion apparently only a
doctor’s word away from fruition, a strange season in the tightly-packed Western Conference just got a whole lot goofier.

As teams jockey for position in a circuit ripe for the picking, GMs may be losing their heads. The Lakers’ Mitch Kupchak, savvy veteran of the front office wars that he is, took a logical risk in taking on Pau Gasol from Memphis. This was the first year of contention for this group of Lakers anyway and they had the Andrew Bynum injury with which to deal.

Kupchak didn’t have to break up his core to make his deal; bringing in Gasol merely rearranges his components. The chemistry might not work as well as LA hopes, but there is no denying that from a talent standpoint, the trade was a boost for the Lakers.

With the trade of Shaquille O’Neal to Phoenix for Shawn Marion, the Suns have become a brand-spanking-new team, yet a much older team, and a team facing a steep dropoff at some point within the next couple of years—a Miami-style tumble.

With the Suns and Lakers both having stepped up to the plate, the Mavericks now are at the dish. Dallas’ dilemma is more similar to Phoenix than LA. With the Mavs’ already nearly $40 million over the cap, they will have to part with productive young talent to make any significant acquisition. Jason Kidd rumors have suggested that he would cost Dallas Devin Harris. Shaq-to-Dallas speculation said that Josh Howard would have been headed to Miami. The Kidd deal probably makes more sense, at least if you believe that that there is a significant difference in productivity between Harris and Kidd at this point in their careers—and that the difference favors Kidd. As much as it pains Mark Cuban to be an idle bystander, the Mavericks might be better off sitting out the current trade bazaar.

** SPORTSBULLIES NOTE WE COMPLETELY AGREE AND WHILE BEING HUGE J KIDD FANS DO NOT WANT TO GIVE UP HARRIS **

As for the Suns, their focus in making this deal was obviously short term. Steve Nash just turned 34, Raja Bell is 31, and Grant Hill is 35, and that’s three-fifths of the Suns’ starting lineup. But I'm not sure that even taking into account the necessity of adopting a win-now stance justifies Steve Kerr’s thinking.

** I DON'T REALLY BUY THE WHOLE "RAJA BELL IS OVER 30...WE'D BETTER WIN NOW" ARGUMENT BUT NASHTY IS IN HIS DECLINE AND AS HE GOES SO GO THE SUNS **

It’s true that Marion, for whatever reason, was not happy in Phoenix. Getting to run the floor, fire up threes, and catch alley-oop passes from Nash must really suck, and Marion apparently thinks basketball nirvana is shooting at will for a bad team.

** ASK HIS BUDDY JOE JOHNSON **

While Marion has been a little off his game from last season, he still rates as one of the 15 best players in the NBA. Whatever attitude problems he may have been having, it was not impacting the Suns’ ability to win games. Marion can opt out of his contract after the season, leaving over $17 million on the table in the process. But that’s after the season.

In the meantime, the Suns could have kept a core group intact that was probably an Amare Stoudemire suspension away from winning the NBA title last season. Yes, there are some differences from last season’s roster. The loss of Kurt Thomas last offseason for cap reasons left Phoenix short of quality interior defenders. The Suns get absolutely killed by opposing centers, who have a collective 23.2 PER against Phoenix. But that is a relatively small quibble, a little roster tweak that Kerr could have addressed in a much more low-key manner than by trading for one of the NBA’s preeminent characters.

But in Kerr’s defense, the danger is that Marion ultimately walks after the season. Since Phoenix would still be slightly over the cap even with Marion’s contract off the books, the Suns would have to fill his spot with a mid-level exception and then would be stuck with a combination of that middling free agent and Boris Diaw at the four spot. Perhaps that was a risk Kerr wasn’t
willing to take. Instead, he’s gambling that O’Neal, with two more years on his contract after this one, at $20 million per annum, will buy Phoenix an extra year at the top of the NBA ladder before a complete overhaul takes place in 2010.

Nevertheless, you have to think that the key motivation for Kerr is to maximize the Suns’ opportunity to win the title this season. So before making this trade, he had to ask: “Does this make us better now?”

Needless to say, the swap of Marion for O’Neal completely changes the dynamic of the Suns.
First, the notion should be dispelled that Shaq—if healthy—can no longer play. O’Neal is a shell of his former self. But his shell is still an above-average NBA big man and brings a defensive skill set that Phoenix lacked almost entirely. O’Neal is averaging 19.9 points and 10.9 rebounds per 40 minutes, and despite playing for a Miami team devoid of offensive options, he shot 58.1 percent from the field for the Heat. For players with at least 500 minutes played, O’Neal still has one of the top 15 foul-drawing rates in the game. He still blocks over two shots per 40 minutes
and, digging into my defensive numbers, opposing centers have operated at an efficiency rate of 96.8 percent of their typical output in their matchups with O’Neal: He’s still an above-average defender.

So Shaq can still play, but can he play in Phoenix’s system?

**NOTE: SHORT ANSWER, NO**

What the Suns have to hope for is that gains in their halfcourt offense can neutralize the losses in their transition game. Make no mistake about it—there will be a dropoff in Phoenix’s fast break attack. Marion is one of the fastest players in the league from baseline to baseline and the advantage he had in footspeed over opposing power forwards is not likely to be compensated
for.

That’s not to say that the Suns’ fastbreak is dead. Amare Stoudemire, who will shift to his natural position at the four, is no slouch at running the floor, himself. He may not be able to consistently outrun teams with small-ball offenses, like Golden State, but for the most part, he’ll still be a plus for Phoenix in this aspect. O’Neal should give a modest boost to the Suns’ performance on the boards, as well, though Marion is a terrific rebounder in his own right. Still, if Phoenix is able to do a better job of controlling the defensive boards, that only enhances its ability to get into a fast break mode.

There is actually a long tradition of plodding centers functioning well on fast break teams. The ’72 Lakers were the highest-scoring team in the league with 35-year-old Wilt Chamberlain averaging 42 minutes per game. Chamberlain shot less than 10 times per contest, content to lead the league in rebounding and start the LA break. The “Showtime” Lakers of the ‘80s featured an aging Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. So I’m not concerned about whether the Suns’ uptempo attack can still function with O’Neal in the middle.

** I AM. SHAQ CAN'T LEAD THE LEAGUE IN REBOUNDING ANYMORE, EVEN IF HE COULD I DOUBT HE'D BE "HAPPY TO" WHILE GETTING NO SHOTS. THIS TEAM IS NOT IN THE SAME STRATOSPHERE AS THE SHOW TIME LAKERS **

I am concerned, however, about what happens to Phoenix’s dangerous halfcourt offense. Right now, the Suns generally spread the floor, with Nash controlling the ball up top and the two, three, and four players planting themselves on the perimeter. Stoudamire sets the offense in motion with a high screen and Nash will either dish the ball to Stoudamire as he rolls to the
basket or, if someone helps from the outside, he’ll dish to the open man for a three or a drive to the hoop or, if the defense sags off of Nash and tries to deny an entry pass to Stoudamire, Nash will simply pop a three-point shot with deadly accuracy. There’s more to it than that, but that’s the basic foundation.

Now, O’Neal will clog things up. He is far too slow afoot at this juncture of his career to run the high pick-and-roll, and when Nash runs the play with Stoudamire, O’Neal will have to clear out of the way. But, of course, he’s not a candidate to shoot a jump shot, so when that happens, O’Neal will be effectively removed from the offense. Suddenly the mismatches for Phoenix’s
outside shooters become harder to come by.

So Mike D’Antoni is going to have to reconfigure things a little bit, likely to his chagrin. O’Neal, a plodding brute of a center, doesn’t really fit into the European-style attack that D’Antoni favors. If he wants to maximize O’Neal on the defensive end, then perhaps he’ll have to use Leandro Barbosa even more than he does now to give Phoenix another guy that can break down the
defense. But that weakens the Suns’ perimeter defense, which will already be hurting because of the switch from Marion to Stoudemire guarding opposing power forwards. Think Dirk Nowitzki is happy today?

** LIST OF THINGS THAT WOULD MAKE DIRK VERY HAPPY:

1. David Hasselhoff
2. Streudel
3. Tanting the Bucks over how much better he is than Tractor Traylor
4. His hair
5. Fat blunts
6. David Hasselhoff
7. Some good sax
8. This picture
9. This picture
10. Invading Poland
11. Feeling Steve Nash's boobie
12. One-on-one (note: the other guy in the picture is 6'4'')
13. Flying over Bruch Bowen
14. The glory and power of Germany
15. Pimp clothes

Like I said, this trade changes the whole dynamic in Phoenix. Steve Kerr might have felt backed against a wall, with Marion’s desire to bail and the much-ballyhooed move of Gasol to LA. But if the only consideration for Kerr was winning this year, he probably would have been better off standing pat. And none of this even addresses the concerns about O’Neal’s health, and that’s probably the biggest issue of all. If O’Neal is unable to stay on the court, then this trade turns out to be an absolute disaster for Phoenix.

The bottom line is that the Suns were probably the odds-on favorite to win the championship before this trade was made. They were far from an overwhelming favorite, but the favorite nonetheless. But now, who knows?

In the end, the trade changes the modus operandi of the Suns, both from the standpoint of their efficiencies on both ends of the court and their overall style of play. What they already had worked—they were on the cusp of beating the Spurs last season, and there is no reason they couldn’t go even further this season. Yes, they needed another interior defender to fill the Kurt Thomas role, but this is the answer? The Suns’ starting lineup now includes three players
aged 34 or older. Their window for success just got a lot smaller.

As for the Heat …

This was a real coup for Pat Riley, who can suddenly reshape the woebegone Heat much faster than anyone could have hoped for. I, for one, thought that O’Neal’s albatross of a contract would be immovable this season and probably next season, as well. But now, with that money off the books, he has a half-season to audition Marion, and perhaps more if the mercurial forward likes
what he sees in south Florida and exercises his option to play for Miami next year.

Meanwhile, Riley has a top-five lottery pick coming up and will be shedding Jason Williams, Ricky Davis, and Alonzo Mourning from his payroll. He should be in a position to pursue some of the ample bounty in the next free-agent crop, and if Marion opts out, he may be able to fit in two impact talents. With a little craftiness and a lot of luck, next year’s Heat lineup could include a healthier Dwyane Wade, Marion, Michael Beasley, and somebody like Jermaine O’Neal.
The long dark age that appeared to be descending over Miami may not come at all. How quickly things can change in a day.

Bradford Doolittle is an author of Basketball Prospectus. You can contact Bradford by clicking here or click here to see Bradford's other articles.

Eli Just Pooped in the Fridge

After the go-ahead TD pass to Plexiglass Eli was overheard saying, "What happened? I just blacked out for a minute."

Who knew that there was something to JJ's dad refering to Eli as a 'Mongol Child'??

Super Bowl Pick

Lincoln back to bail all you out after a losing season -- assuming you haven't taken are advice in the past.

New York Giants @ New England Patriots (-12.5)

Mark it down, championship!

2008 Rangers

BP just released their PECOTA predictions for the 2008 season. Here's a look at the Ranger's starting lineup.

Woo!!! ... I mean... yeah, that's... not that great.

I'll take the over on Ian Kinsler's line as well as Blalock's - but I doubt he'll be able to stay healthy for a whole season.

There's a LOT of injury risk with this team...Blalock, Milton, Josh Hamilton, MY...or basically the middle of the order.

Gimme the under on Byrd.

Few other notes -- PECOTA isn't particularlly enammared with any of our pitchers but doesn't seem to really hate any of them either. Francisco Cruceta get's a strang amount of PECOTA love -- I have no idea why.

The system is down on Chris Davis - sharing my opinoin - but has his #2 comp as a young David Ortiz!! His #1 comp is Jose Oliva. Russell Branyon takes bronze and seems like a happy medium.

Texas Ranger Baseball: Gettin' ready to hoist another thrid place banner in 2008!

He Drives a Dodge Stratus!

Funny link I found on College Humor:

Everybody stop moving!! Chris Berman is talking!!!!!!!!!