On 'Roids

Giambi's apology to the fans has riled up those sitting in the big comfy chairs in the Commish's office. However, for some reason (that we'll discuss later), Bud doesn't seem to care if owners call out players with no evidence... The same owner who signed Sammy Sosa and glorified his assent into the arbitrary 600 home run club.... But hey, if your team is that bad you need something for the fans to cheer about, right? More proof that he cares more about profit than winning...but that's a different rant.

There's tons of propaganda and misinformation about the steroids era in baseball. Nothing beats the baseball life out of me like people talking about Performance Enhancing Drugs, PED's. I've been putting off writing this column for a long time, but I think there needs to be some real facts and intelligent information out there on this issue.

My first point: BASEBALL CREATED THIS PROBLEM. Maybe it's the sociology major in me coming out but I tend to look at all drug use (steroids, cocaine, alcohol) as symptoms of larger, institutional problems. Baseball players take steroids because they believe they will be rewarded for it. Beyond Jason Giambi's 7/120 deal he signed with the Evil Empire, baseball as a whole promoted the long ball after the 1994 strike as an attempt to get the fans back as quick as possible. No one cared if it was dirty, or seedy, or morally wrong as long as fans got their butt's in the seats.

Tom Hicks' comments about Juan Gonzalez express this point very clearly. "[A]fter he came off of steroids, probably" he wasn't upset that Juan Gone used steroids he was upset that he didn't use steroids!! Tom Hicks is not anti PED's, he wants players to give him good return on investment. Hicks said nothing of Juan in his previous stint with the Rangers, when he was productive. Juan was coming off of a great year in Cleveland, John Hart had some ties there. The Rangers knew of Juan's PED usage, but as long as he was a good player they looked the other way. No worrying out his health, just performance. If Juan juiced, Hicks was happy... and Selig wants to make this out to be all the players fault...

Selig is coercing Giambi to testify in the Mitchell Investigation because he tried to apologize. A prominent owner outright accuses a player of using steroids and blames him for stopping, yet the commish says no punishment will come for Hicks. This is the same reason Bud doesn't want to go any of Bonds' games as he nears #756, because he wants to make the players out to be the bad guys in all of this.

Quick question, Mr. Selig... did anyone ever tell you that players were using steroids prior to 2005, or 1998 or 1995? I know for a fact the answer is yes. That person, former Commish Fay Vincent. Vincent said in an ESPN interview that he knew players were taking steroids when he was in charge, but he looked the other way because he thought roids wouldn't be of any great benefit to baseball players. Baseball knew of this problem for decades!

But if attendance dips...because of a strike that you were largely responsible Mr Selig...you do every thing you can to make the game more exciting. You encourage the owners to build smaller parks, intentionally juice the balls and turn a blind eye while the players themselves juice.

My second point: THIS IS A PROBLEM EXACERBATED BY THE MEDIA. Now, that's not to say that nobody in baseball used PEDs and that this whole rigamarole is made up by the media. What I'm saying is that ESPN and national/local baseball writers have made people believe that every person in baseball in on the Juice...correct that: that ever slugger in baseball is on the juice. Media speculates on the effects of steroids and HGH as if they are magic elixirs that turn any Juan Pierre into Adam Dunn. There is almost zero effort on the part of national media outlets to get any truth, because the truth isn't near as sexy as the story they're perpetuating now.

The Truth: On May 6th of this year Juan Salas, a middle reliever for the Devil Rays, became the fourth player suspended under the revamped testing system. That's right, the great Juan Salas!!! A 28 year old with all of 23 innings on his major league resume. Juan Salas is the typical steroid user, not Barry Bonds. Your Juan Salas' of the world have the most to gain by using steroids, a major league roster spot. The difference between pitching in AA and the MLB is so huge that a guy, too old to be considered a prospect anymore, would be willing to try just about anything to achieve his goal. It's simple prospect theory.

Salas is the fourth player nabbed under the new testing system, and the fourth relief pitcher. That’s right - in the one-plus years of what many consider the gold standard of professional testing, all four positive tests came with relievers. (Debate Yusaku Iriki as much as you want. If he’d made it, he likely would have been a reliever.) Eight of fifteen players popped have been pitchers, with only Ryan Franklin a “starter.” (Again, here’s a point for debating role … and quality.) Knowing that steroids, used properly, could really aid a player’s recovery more than it could his fastball or power numbers, this shouldn’t surprise people.

In 2003 when the first confidential testing was done, only about 6% of players tested positive. In 2005 that number was about 1.5%, only 11 players were in the major leagues. Only 1 had ever made an All-Star team, Rafeal Palmerio...but the truth will come out about that one day. Of the 65 minor leaguers only ever made a Baseball America Top 100 prospect list (Javier Herrera #68 in 2005.) Very few players use, and the ones that do are mostly scrubs.

Most people think that they only things players are on is steroids or HGH. I don’t see anyone outraged about the use of insulin, IGF-r1, MGF, or nootropics. In fact, I don’t see anyone talking about them. While people are busy raging against what was done last year or two years ago, players have moved on. The drug creators and distributors have moved on. Guys like Dr. David Black, the top tester in the world, Dr. Don Catlin, the top researcher in the world, and Rabin and his WADA crew, could use the funding not just to catch up, but to actually get in step with what’s actually happening. That's the actual problem, but no one cares about reality.

THE AMOUNT PEDs ACTUALLY ENHANCE PERFORMANCE IS EXAGGERATED. If someone tells you HGH works, he clearly missed David Laurila’s informative interview with Andy Andres, where the topic came up:

DL: A hot topic is Human Growth Hormone (HGH), which is reportedly replacing anabolic steroids in a lot of locker rooms. How effective is HGH?

AA: Conventional wisdom says that everyone is on HGH now because there’s no test to detect it, but what they don’t realize is that there’s a night and day difference between HGH and anabolic-androgenic steroids. Studies have shown that HGH supplementation will increase muscle mass; but there is little, if any, evidence of strength gains in these studies. In other words, when HGH supplementation has been studied in normal males, there are reports of small gains in muscle mass, but there seems to be no evidence from a randomized, double-blind study that you gain strength from HGH alone. If there is any effect of HGH, it is likely to be a small effect, especially compared to how anabolic steroids improve strength and baseball performance.

If HGH “works”, but doesn’t have the strength gains expected, how is it working? We have to look no further than the scientific evidence. HGH is most commonly used in two populations: short kids and people rich enough to try and buy their way out of aging. It doesn't help people play baseball.

Baseball Prospectus' book Baseball Between the Numbers: Why Everything You Know About the Game is Wrong. Tackled the problem of steroids by looking at statistical evidence...what a shocking and novel concept! Actually see what happened, not just make random guesses and assumptions. In 2005 76 players were suspended for testing positive for the use of steroids or other performance enhancing drugs, 65 minor league and 11 major leaguers.

The great Nate Silver then took all of those players statistics and compared the year they tested positive and the year after when, presumably, they would be off the juice. Using the equivalent triple slash stats and EqA, which adjust for park and league effects to get a better look what a player actually did himself, and applying a PECOTA aided growth curve, to account for any natural progression of skill, Silver found the effects of steroids.

Weighted Average Change in Performance Among Suspended Position Players:

Batting Average: -.010
On-Base Percentage: -.014
Slugging Average: -.006
Equivalent Average: -.006

For pitchers, which made up the majority of the sample, equivalent DIPS stats were used as well as EqERA.

Weighted Average Change in Performance Among Suspended Pitchers:

Walk Rate: +0.3 per 9 IP
Strikeout Rate: -0.1 per 9 IP
Home-Run Rate: +0.2 per 9 IP
Earned Run Average: +0.13

So there is a measurable difference, but it is very tiny and unquestionably not statistically significant.

The work by Nate Silver and the rest of the Baseball Prospectus gang is the most definitive work I've come across on the subject, and they only thing that approaches the problem objectively and analytically. Their conclusion: There is no significant difference in the performance of professional baseball players on steroids or off.

WHAT SELIG SHOULD HAVE DONE: As linked to above, the Mitchell Investigation is a sham that should be immediately disbanded; or better yet never started! Any investigation that needs players to be blackmailed into talking to them is a farce, put on by the Commish's buddy.

I remember watching TV when Bud Selig held a big press conference announcing the formation of the investigation and shouting at my TV. I'm still shouting...although now maybe someone other than my neighbors will hear.

What Selig should have done, for the best interest of the game, would have been to say, "We now have the most cutting-edge testing in all of sports. We will work tirelessly to keep on the cutting-edge and pioneer new testing technologies. We have the by far the strictest punishments in place, in any sport. This was a problem, that we are correcting. I, as the Commissioner of Baseball, take responsibility for the problem getting out of control under my watch. That problem is being rectified. The game is at its strongest point ever. The quality of play and the quality of player are now beyond reproach. Let's look towards the future of a clean game. History will be the ultimate judge of what happened, I'm not here to talk about the past."

***Thanks to Will Carroll, Nate Silver, Joe Sheehan, and all the other guys doing real, actual, good work on this subject***