1 - Sedgefield (M/L Odds 50-1)
Sedgfield landed in the tough inside post for trainer Darrin Miller and young super-stud jockey Julien Leparoux. Sedgefield has several factors going against him:
- Post Position
- Four week layoff
- Yet to run on dirt
- Coming off of a bad last race
- Bad recent work out numbers
Other than that, there's a lot to like about Sedgefield!
2 - Curlin (7/2*)
Asmussen's coddled super horse has been nothing short of dominate in each of his three previous career races. Curlin has averaged winning by just over 9.5 lengths. Curlin's toughest trip came in the Grade III Rebel at Oaklawn a month and a half ago. The official chart for the race reads:
CURLIN did not break all that well, second flight early outside, settled, swept toward the front four wide late in the secondturn, put a head in front when straightened for home, kicked clear and was kept to task.
He won by 5.5 lengths in that race. That is the only time that Curlin had any dirt kicked in his face, so its difficult to say how the virtually untested Curlin will react with 70,000 people cheering and 19 other horses banging him around, but maybe he's just too good and will be able to get off clear. If starts poorly again, he will be swallowed up by this massive field. Derby favorites tend to show very poorly and another reason to stay away from Curlin is that he never raced as a 2 year old so history is up against him.
3 - Zanjero (30/1)
I actually like the Asmussen trained horse at this price. He's at his best when he can save his energy for a late charge, but that means that he will need a good pace and a great trip for everything to break his way. One big factor against Zanjero is his jockey, Shaun Bridgmohan, his mounting only his 2nd Derby horse (He rode in his first Derby last year, finishing 15th aboard Private Vow.) His last time out in the dramatic Blue Grass (GI):
ZANJERO, up close from the outset, made a bold run to poke his head in front briefly in the final sixteenth but was outfinished.
Big Z drew the 1 hole in that race and was forced to show more early than he wanted, the same fate may away him on Derby Day. Still, Zanjero finished the Blue Grass within a length of Dominican and Street Sense and showed that he has enough to run with the big boys at an extended distance.
4 - Storm In May (30/1)Storm In May, who's blind in his right eye, has never won beyond 7 furlongs on dirt for trainer Bill Kaplan, and most of his top efforts have come on grass. His claim to fame at this point is his victory in the Sunshine Millions Dash at Gulfstream Park, a race restricted to Florida and California-breds. He ran 2nd to Curlin in the Arkansas Derby, but it’s tough to imagine he can make up the 10+ lengths needed to turn the tables on that one and all the others. He will probably be trying to come from off the pace in here, and if they go too fast up front, that style will help. Still, he seems to be a notch or two below on his best day, and it’s tough to imagine a board finish for this guy.
5 - Imawildandcrazyguy (50/1)
Bill Kaplan's second big dappled grey is coming off of a really bad race last time out, Florida Derby (GI) where he finished well back in 6th place. He did have a couple good showings, finishing a fast-closing 2nd in the Risen Star (GIII) at Fair Grounds and a respectable 4th in the Louisiana Derby (GII). Imawildandcrazyguy really has not been much of a threat against top company this year, and it will take a very big step up for him to give this group a run for it’s money. He should be near the back of the pack early, and unless he has turned into a completely new horse in the last five weeks, he’ll probably stay there. Imawildandcrazyguy does holds off the 12 - Nobiz Like Showbiz and 14 - Scat Daddy for the best name in this year's Derby. So he's got that going for him, which is nice.
6 - Cowtown Cat (20/1)
One of trainer Todd Pletcher's 37 horses in this years race, I personally think Cowtown Cat is the most underrated horse in this field. Cowtown Cat is coming off of two straight graded stakes wins, Illinois Derby (GII) and the Gotham (GIII.) He finished 3rd in the grade 2 Swale after getting pushed wide and just not having enough race track left to chase down the leaders in the sprint at Gulfstream. However, the fields he beat have been considered rather weak and the fractions he posted aren't overwhelming so the Derby is definitely a jump up in class. One other thing to like about this pricey son of Distorted Humor is the way he has been training recently; his two five furlongs drills over the synthetic surface at Keeneland each stopped the clock in 58 seconds and change. He has shown the ability to perform well in various circumstances but will be asked to adapt once again in this race against much better horses.
7 - Street Sense (4/1)
Despite his distinction of being the second choice on the morning-line, there is reason to believe that Street Sense will go off as the post-time favorite for the race. Last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile (Grade 1) winner and champion 2-year-old has done little wrong in his 3-year-old season. He made his seasonal bow with a gut-wrenching nose victory over Any Given Saturday in the Tampa Bay Derby (Grade 3) before finishing second by just a nose in an oddly run edition of the Toyota Blue Grass (Grade 1). Since that effort he has posted two sharp works over the Churchill Downs strip. He seems to have grown physically and mentally from last year and his trainer, Carl Nafzger, seems to be coming into the race full of confidence. He obviously possesses an immense amount of talent, which he put on display by decimating the Breeders' Cup Juvenile field by a record 10-lengths. It is easy to endorse this dark bay colt as the most likely candidate to wear roses this year.
8 - Hard Spun (15/1)
Hard Spun was the buzz of the backside on April 30 after he tore through a five furlong workout in :57.53, a move many found to be much to quick just five days prior to the Kentucky Derby; trainer Larry Jones seems unconcerned about the sharp move. Hard Spun has won five of his six lifetime starts but has never met the quality type horses he will encounter in the Derby. His 3 ¼-length win in the Lanes End (Grade 2) was visually impressive but saw its credibility diminish with the subsequent defeats of Sedgefield in the Transylvania (Grade 3) and Joe Got Even in the Lexington (Grade 2). It seems more than likely that jockey Mario Pino will take advantage of post eight and stay close to the pacesetters. After that, it simply becomes a question of how good Hard Spun really is and how far he can keep going when the fight gets tough turning for home.
9 - Liquidity (30/1)
Like Giacomo, Liquidity is a Southern California based runner who has consistently run good races but enters the Derby still eligible to participate in a first level allowance race; finding the winner's circle has been a tough task for this Tiznow colt. Both Giacomo and Liquidity finished second in the Hollywood Futurity (Grade 1), placed in the money in the Sham (Grade 3), and entered the Kentucky Derby off a fourth place finish in the Santa Anita Derby (Grade 1). Liquidity has stood in the shadows of his more accomplished stable mate Great Hunter, who also hangs his halter in the Doug O'Neill barn. One of the major concerns regarding Liquidity is his ability to run well outside of California; he has been well beaten in both attempts outside of his home state. Based on his recent performances and poor shipping record, it is tough to make a strong argument for endorsing him as a win candidate.
10 - Teuflesberg (30/1)
Teuflesberg's most recent effort was a fourth place finish in the Toyota Blue Grass (Grade 1) when he was beaten by just a neck for all the money after setting glacier like fractions. It is tough to knock this horse's iron constitution, but there is reason to be skeptical of his abilities to succeed at this level. Despite an obvious lack of serious speed in this edition of the Kentucky Derby, he will certainly not be allowed to set pedestrian fractions when pressed by the likes of Hard Spun, Stormello, and Curlin. Whatever the pace scenario, it is tough to imagine Teuflesberg hanging tough when the top 3-year-olds come running at him on the final turn.
11 - Bwana Bull (50/1)
Bwana Bull will be one of the longest shots in the field come post time Saturday. This could be for a few reasons: he was supposed to run in the Derby Trial last weekend, but had to scratch after getting an ugly looking, but luckily superficial cut on his hind leg; he’s a Grade 3 winner, but that came against admittedly lighter competition in northern California; and his Speed Figures, though on the improve, don’t match up well with most of his foes.
12 - Nobiz Like Showbiz (8/1)
Nobiz Like Showbiz co-third choice (with Circular Quay) at 8-1. Barclay Tagg’s horse has been one of the most scrutinized 3-year-olds throughout the Derby trail, probably because of his obvious talent and show-stopping looks. That could be one of the reasons that Tagg waited until Wednesday to ship to Churchill Downs, making his colt the last contender to get to Louisville. He did the same thing with Funny Cide four years ago, and we all know how that turned out. However, Funny Cide seemed to be progressing through the spring preps, while Nobiz has appeared to run the same race each time, at least by the numbers. Drawing post 12 was ideal for his stalking style, particular with a few speedier types just to his inside, which should help clear the way for him to get to a good spot before the first turn. He should be included in your exotics.
13 - Sam P. (20/1)
This chestnut colt has immaculate breeding, Cat Theif and Affirmed Legacy (Affirmed), and was named after a man named Sam P. He’s 20-1 in the morning line, and will probably drift higher than that off his troubling effort in the Santa Anita Derby. He seemed to fight his jock Ramon Dominguez for most of the trip, when he was wearing blinkers for the first time. He will run without them this time, another indication that was part of the problem. A good second in the Robert Lewis (GII) probably landed him in this spot, because the rest of his resume is fairly light.
14 - Scat Daddy (10/1)
I really like Scat Daddy because what he really is is a grinder that can stay no matter what the pace, finishing strongly every time. He was fourth at Churchill Downs in the Breeders’ Cup, but obviously no threat to a runaway winner. Pletcher has gone on record as saying that he wasn’t in an ideal position going into that race, so that tosses the “dislike the course” theory. Like a lot of these, he’s yet to run a triple digit Beyer Speed Figure, something that it almost always takes to win this race (Giacomo’s 100 in 2005 was the lowest in recent times). Pletcher has always been high on this son of Johannesburg, keeping him in graded company after an ultra-impressive maiden debut at Belmont last June. 2006 Derby winning rider Edgar Prado will ride after picking up the mount for the Florida Derby (GI) win. There is so much to like here, but the Beyer's Rating is holding me back from picking him.
15 - Tiago (15/1)
Tiago was actually a maiden when he won the Santa Anita Derby (GI), as he was placed first following disqualification of the winner in an earlier maiden race. One thing that shouldn’t hurt is the post 15, since he likes to drop back and make a late run anyway. That style could be his undoing here, since there is not a ton of speed in the race, unless a few riders get nervous and press unnecessarily. In a race with two favorites (Curlin and Street Sense), then looks wide open after that and you’re sure to get a decent price of 15-1 or better on a recent Grade 1 winner and half-brother of Giacomo.
16 - Circular Quay (8/1)
Circular Quay will be trying to buck some history by coming into the Derby without having raced in two months; some three weeks longer than Barbaro did last year. Despite his record of being worse than second just once in seven starts (and that was because a horse fell in front of him) and being co-third choice at 8-1 on the morning line, he has become a forgotten horse during the Derby hoopla. He was well backed in all three future wagers, never closing higher than 12-1. Drawing post 16 isn’t as bad as it sounds for this late closing son of 1995 Derby winner Thunder Gulch, who should be well back in the field early. That’s really the bigger issue, as you can almost guarantee he’s going to need some racing luck to weave through the majority of 20 horses. He’ll surely get some play since John Velazquez wound up here after having his choice of Pletcher’s five runners, but will still offer plenty of value when he goes off at somewhere around 10-1.
17 - Stormello (30/1)
Stormello is one of those horses that is going to make plenty of people mad if he manages to score here. He seemed to be an improving horse, and his gameness was without question, earlier in the prep season. That all went by the wayside when he wound up a bad fourth, looking like a tired horse, in the Florida Derby (GI). His trainer Bill Currin admitted that the cross-country trips got to him and the horse, so he took him back to Hollywood Park to regroup. The headstrong colt likes to break running, so Currin has spent the last month trying to get him to relax so he has something left for the finish of these longer races. Though it’s late in the game to be changing tactics, his workouts look like he’s taken to the change. Strangely enough, this Derby doesn’t have a ton of early speed, so Desormeaux will in all likelihood have him near the front when they pass the wire for the first time, and his hand is kind of forced as they break from post 17, one of two positions that have never produced a Derby winner (the other is 19). This colt is definitely battle-tested and will not give up easily, even if he’s not really bred to handle the 10 furlongs. I think his Kentucky Derby run will look a lot like his Florida Derby run:
sprinted clear, set pace to quarter pole, battled to mid stretch, weakened.
18 - Any Given Saturday (12/1)
He took a slight step backward when 3rd in the Wood Memorial last out. That will only serve to help the price. He has shown since his career debut that he is an immensely talented horse, and trainer Todd Pletcher certainly has him ready for his best effort. He has lost two of three this year, but one defeat was to Street Sense when that one just nosed him out on the wire. He ran a strong 2nd in a Grade 2 last fall at Churchill, so there is reason to believe that he likes the surface. The wide post is a concern, but Any Given Saturday is no stranger to being way off the rail. He is by Distorted Humor, who has already sired a Derby winner in Funny Cide. So you know the breeding is right. John Velazquez chooses stablemate Circular Quay instead of this guy, but Garret Gomez is no slouch. There is a lot to like, and he should be 12-1 or higher. Major player who may be able to overcome is bad post position if Pacino doesn't give him a pep talk right before the race.
19 - Dominican (20/1)
This horse may be coming into the race as one of the most blatantly ignored winners of the Toyota Blue Grass (Grade 1). While that race was an oddly run event, Dominican displayed huge strides at the end as he closed an intimidating gap on horses that had already gotten the jump on him, flying home his final furlong in 11 seconds flat. That makes this Darrin Miller trainee 2-for-2 this year and undefeated since being gelded following his 2-year-old campaign. His stock fell a bit when he was allotted the final selection at the post position draw, but an outside post in the Kentucky Derby is not reason to draw a line through a horse's name when you consider the long run into the first turn and the inevitable traffic jam that will be faced by every horse to his inside.
20 - Great Hunter (15/1)
Great Hunter was slated to be one of the Derby favorites before his 5th place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes. He has mild trouble that day, but his rider claimed he was done before the incident and would not have won. He is trying to win the Derby off of just two starts in six months, one of which was a win over a weak field in the Robert Lewis Stakes. He finished 3rd in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile over this track, but he crossed the wire 12+ lengths behind Street Sense. There’s no question that he fits with this bunch on class, but the light schedule and the strange final prep leave a lot of questions unanswered.
I will have my final picks Sat mornin', no sense telling you all now and driving down the odds.
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