Sorry, I know it has been a while since my last post, but I had to take my little cousin hunting. Anyway, let's get down to business. With the Rangers' season pulling a Terry Schiavo...too soon?.... and the draft fast approaching I figure its time for me to focus on the hurlers in this year's draft class. Check out what I said about some of the hitters.
Texas has 5 of the first 54 picks in next weekend's draft. With the system anemic at virtually every position, the Rangers should...I emphasis should because this is a team that historically doesn't do what it should, hence my reason for writing these columns... just focus on taking the best players available....A major cliche, I know, but it is more true baseball than in any other sport.
The last time the Rangers were in a similar position was in 1996, when they had four of the first 53 picks and used them all on pitchers. The Rangers ended up taking R.A. Dickey, Sam Marsonek, Corey Lee and Derrick Cook. Dickey, who has 16 Major League victories, is the only one of the four who pitched more than one game in the Major Leagues.
This is why I'm continuing my quest to spend no money and only a couple days researching/ranking players so I can give better player personnel advise than the Rangers scouting department with their far more time/resources/ability to actually see the players. Obviously since I have far fewer resources I won't be complaining about who the Rangers grab in the 42nd round. I'm focusing on the top picks, the money picks! where teams need to succeed. I also want to be the baseball Mel Kiper!
David Price LHP Vanderbilt - He's the Calvin Johnson of this draft, absolute stud in every way you can measure. He's going to go #1 to the D-Rays...which is great because if you add him to Kaz and Shields all of a sudden they have a strong front of the rotation to combine with the best collection of high upside young position players in the game. Yankees fans need to worry about the D-Rays.... I can't believe I just typed that, it makes me happy on several levels!
Andrew Brackman RHP NC State - Brackman is a really interesting guy in this draft. He's not the kind of guy I normally love going into a draft, but I think he makes sense for the Rangers on a couple of different levels. With so many picks at/near the top of this draft I think it makes more sense for Texas to have a higher risk tolerance than normal. Brackman is a risk. The Rangers also perennially have a need for top of the rotation pitching. Brackman can be an ace. Brackman is nearly 7 feet tall and as with virtually all very tall pitchers, they have problems with their mechanics early on which lead to bouts of wildness (37BB in 78IP) and even more problematic, injuries. I believe that pitching a baseball, done correctly, can result in a healthy arm. However done incorrectly, i.e. bad mechanics, and injuries will occur. Brackman pitches from low arm slot, slightly below 3/4, and he would be best served to increase his arm slot slightly, becoming more of a true 3/4 arm slot pitcher. When his arm drops low he loses break on his off speed stuff and downward movement on his fastball. With such long arms, it's easier for a guy like Brackman to make a tiny mistake. He has also faced some fatigue, missing his last couple starts...but personally I would rather see him sit out and not risk further damage to that million dollar arm. In terms of just pure stuff, nobody can match Brackman in this draft. He hits 97 with late downward movement with his fastball, he features a very effective knuckle curve that he throws 78-81 mph, Brackman throws his changeup in the 82-84 mph zone. It's an average offering he keeps around the strike zone. When he's on, he's unhittable. UUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUPPPPPPPSSSSSSSIIIIIIIDDDDDDDEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!! He's a Boras guy, and his recent "tired arm" have caused him to slip in the draft...on upside/talent alone there aren't 5 guys better. He very well could be there when the Rangers pick...the second time.
Ross Detwiler LHP Missouri State - Widely considered the 2nd best college lefty, to Price, Detwiler has 2 plus pitches, fb and the old uncle Charley. However I won't spend much time on him since he's going to be a top 10 pick.
Daniel Moskos LHP Clemson - The guy I personally think is the 2nd best pitcher. But, alas, he too should be drafted before the Rangers are on the clock. Watch for him to be in the bigs in short order.
Brett Cecil LHP Maryland - Man, there's a bunch of good college lefties! Cecil has a nice fastball, low 90's, and his slider is virtually unhittable. Not very many amateurs have a big league pitch right now, Cecil does! Combine great stuff with flawless, repeatable mechanics, and dominating a high level of college play (8 saves, 62/19 K/BB) and you get a really, really good prospect. Some people view Cecil as just a LOOGY, but he did start for the Turtles late in the season and has the ability to get hitters out multiple times thru the order. Cecil for some reason could be had supplemental round, but he's legit.
Joe Savery LHP Rice - He may not have good enough stuff to succeed in the bigs, but Savery is one of the best all around players in college. A 2-way player for the Owls, Savery posted a 2.91 ERA while leading the team in batting. Joe has a prototypical pitcher's frame, 6'3'' 215, and is very athletic. His fastball and change are far and away his two best pitches at this point, but he's also never focused solely on being a pitcher. He already has great control with those two pitches, and if he curve develops into a decent offering he'll have an effective repertoire. Savery is just a baseball player, and I like taking chances on guys like him.
Sean Morgan RHP Tulane - I had a Spanish class with Sean, so **HOMER PICK ALERT**!!
But Sean also had 122K's which make him a legit prospect. Morgan has excellent movement on all of his pitches; fb, duce, slider. Sean also have very deceptive mechanics, he's very much "all arms and legs" flying at the hitter. Really the only thing stopping Sean from being one of the top prospects in the game is his control he walked 49 this year, which is way too many. If you can straighten out his mechanics, Morgan has the stuff and the makeup/desire/passion for the game to succeed.
Chance Chapman RHP Oral Roberts - Ok, so maybe I stumbled upon his name after a google search f-ed up. But I'm glad I found him because Chapman has put up some really sick numbers for the Golden Eagles this year. The 6'4'' senior righty threw 88 innings, splitting time between the bullpen and rotation. In those 88 frames, Chapman K'ed 121 opposing batters while issuing free passes to only 25. Me likey K/BB ratios of nearly 5/1! And guys who only surrender 2 long balls all year while playing in hitter's parks. Maybe that wasn't so eloquent, and I haven't seen anything about Chapman on any other site, meaning that Chance Chapman is a Sports Bully exclusive!
Justin Friend RHP Ok State - Another fellow that absolutely no one is talking about. Friend is pretty similar to Chapman in that despite posting amazing numbers while splitting time between closing and starting they haven't garnered much national attention. That's how I like my prospects, let's me know I'm onto somethin'. In the 53.2 innings that Friend pitched this last season he struck out 74 while only walking 13! Like Chapman, I have not seen any video of Justin pitching so I can not attest to his mechanics...but both of their remarkable control abilities lead me to believe that they have sound, repeatable mechanics.
James Simmons RHP UC Riverside - This is one guy whose eye popping stats have actually gotten noticed by others. A third team All-American by Baseball America, Simmons is a top-notch command right hander. He doesn't have over powering stuff, the scouts say, but he still somehow managed to strike out 113 batters while walking just 21. Simmons has a big pitcher's body, 6'4'' 215, which makes you think he could add a few more mph's onto his fastball which currently sits in the low 90's. Simmons deals with a low leg kick, making him quick to the plate which discourages the few who do reach on him from stealing, and keeps his leg fairly straight throughout the delivery. He has great arm position in the windup and a nice loose release.
Casey Weathers RHP Vanderbilt - We'll end this one alphabetically. Weathers was the closer for the #1 ranked Commodores this year. Weathers appeared in nearly half of the teams games, 28 of 62, and racked up an 11-2 record, not bad for a closer huh? Weathers also had 7 saves, probably representing the only 7 close games Vandy played all year. In 44.1 IP 67 opposing batters got a K next to their name in the scoresheet and only 18 got BB. If a guy was that dominate at that high a level you must think that he has great stuff, and with Weathers you'd be right. When the catcher throws down 1 finger the ball comes in at 95-97 mph and when he calls for the slide piece, he gets an 84-86 mph offering that breaks hard late and leaves hitters baffled. Casey hides the ball well in this delivery, with a very high leg kick that confuses hitters because he swings his glove side elbow along with it. While somewhat unconventional, I like Weathers' motion. He has good arm placement and despite a herky-jerky look, his head remains perfectly still. The mid-late first round pick projects as a potential closer in the Show.
I'll be back with a few high schoolers that I've seen enough to actually make an evaluation on, and my world famous 'Oh-my-God-I-really-really-hope-the-Rangers-aren't-stupid-enough-to-actually-pick-these-guys-but-I-kinda-think-they-are' picks. 'Til then.
Smell ya later.
Thursday, May 31, 2007
Friday, May 25, 2007
College Baseball Prospects
I wanted to clear up something I mentioned in a recent article. I said that I would put my player evaluating skills up to those of the Rangers front office brass. So what I will do is go thru and look up players by myself. I will spend no money to do this! I will not pay for any ESPN Insider information or Baseball America Top Tools lists. I will spend a few hours a week researching players, and focus on guys that the Rangers could draft... I know David Price P from Vandy is amazing but unless you're a Devil Ray fan you won't see your team get him.
I already brought you up to date on the greatness of Matt Wieters and Matt LaPorta. So here is a quick look at some of the other top collegiate hitters in this year's draft...according to me.
Beau Mills 3B LCSC - LCSC is Lewis and Clark State College, btw. Mills is a transfer from Fresno State, where he had academic issues (which should raise a few ?'s.) But, Mills is hitting .459/.553/1.000... no that isn't a typeo he's slugging 1.000!!! That's how a guy who plays NAIA ball gets a chance to go in the top 5 of the draft. He broke the school single season record for homers, 30, in 20 fewer games than it took the previous record holder. Mills has also only struck out 17 times so far this year, meaning he can crush while consistently making contact! I do have some concerns about the level of competition, there's a long way to go from the Frontier Confrenece to MLB. The lefthanded hitting Mills had some rather troubling splits this year while he killed righties like me with Ken Griffey Jr on SNES, his average against southpaws was nearly 200 points lower, .503 vRH/.339 vLH. He'll prolly shift to 1B in the pros, since he made 11 errors at 3B this year, but his bat could be for real.
Todd Frazier SS Rutgers - Simply, Frazier is one of the best hitters in college and the fact that he plays a premium defensive position doesn't hurt. Frazier absolutely raked this year to the tune of a .375/.502/.751 line for the Nappy Headed Hoes. Frazier complimented his 50 BB's by going 21/25 on steal attempts. There aren't a ton of SS's in this years draft and his bat will carry him even if he moves to third or second base.
Corey Brown OF OkState - Brown hasn't gotten much pub from the few other people covering the draft but this centerfielder's batting line should make people take notice, .358/.512/.791! He does have a high strikeout rate, but he reminds me a lot of a Brad Wilkerson (stop the jokes Ranger's fans...it's a compliment) or young Jeremy Burnitz type player... a guy with good power, good defense, great eye at the plate and decent speed. Very underrated guy who could end up being a 5-6 win player in the show.
Matt Mangini 3B OkState - No mention of the OSU Cowboys would be complete without Mr Mangini. This hot corner...er? lead the 06 Cape Cod league in batting. While his numbers this season have been somewhat short of dominate, .343/.445/.566, they're still pretty darned good and he's already proven he can hit with the wood bat.
Kyle Russell OF UT - This longhorn right fielder lead DI in slugging this year, .877! Very tall and fairly thin, Russell has a very quick bat and big time power. Russell has a decent eye, 35BB in 187AB's, but swings and misses an awful lot, 32% of the time over the last two years. Russell also lead the 06 Cap Cod League in K's. I could see him being somewhat of a Shawn Green type player.
Mitch Canham C OrSt - Canham is the kind of college player I really like, accomplished college player, who plays a premium defensive position, who has a great eye at the plate, and a little bit of pop. Canham hit .352/.478/.593 for the Beavers this year.
Danny Payne OF GaTech - Along with Canham and Brown, Payne is another vastly underrated player in this year's draft. Payne has the patience at the plate to carry him all the way to the bigs. He's small and over looked by a lot of scouts but I'll take a guy who hit .393/.522/.582 on my team.
Now I have a sneaking suspicion that none of these guys will be Rangers, but all of them stand a good chance at being good big leaguers...and most of them will. JD the challenge is officially on, see what you can do with an entire scouting department a multi-million dollar budget and far more time than I have. I still think I'm the favorite in this.
Anyway I'm off to the Temple to see Dice-K v B-Mac. I'll be back with more hitters, the pitchers and the few high school players I've seen enough to make a recommendation about.
I already brought you up to date on the greatness of Matt Wieters and Matt LaPorta. So here is a quick look at some of the other top collegiate hitters in this year's draft...according to me.
Beau Mills 3B LCSC - LCSC is Lewis and Clark State College, btw. Mills is a transfer from Fresno State, where he had academic issues (which should raise a few ?'s.) But, Mills is hitting .459/.553/1.000... no that isn't a typeo he's slugging 1.000!!! That's how a guy who plays NAIA ball gets a chance to go in the top 5 of the draft. He broke the school single season record for homers, 30, in 20 fewer games than it took the previous record holder. Mills has also only struck out 17 times so far this year, meaning he can crush while consistently making contact! I do have some concerns about the level of competition, there's a long way to go from the Frontier Confrenece to MLB. The lefthanded hitting Mills had some rather troubling splits this year while he killed righties like me with Ken Griffey Jr on SNES, his average against southpaws was nearly 200 points lower, .503 vRH/.339 vLH. He'll prolly shift to 1B in the pros, since he made 11 errors at 3B this year, but his bat could be for real.
Todd Frazier SS Rutgers - Simply, Frazier is one of the best hitters in college and the fact that he plays a premium defensive position doesn't hurt. Frazier absolutely raked this year to the tune of a .375/.502/.751 line for the Nappy Headed Hoes. Frazier complimented his 50 BB's by going 21/25 on steal attempts. There aren't a ton of SS's in this years draft and his bat will carry him even if he moves to third or second base.
Corey Brown OF OkState - Brown hasn't gotten much pub from the few other people covering the draft but this centerfielder's batting line should make people take notice, .358/.512/.791! He does have a high strikeout rate, but he reminds me a lot of a Brad Wilkerson (stop the jokes Ranger's fans...it's a compliment) or young Jeremy Burnitz type player... a guy with good power, good defense, great eye at the plate and decent speed. Very underrated guy who could end up being a 5-6 win player in the show.
Matt Mangini 3B OkState - No mention of the OSU Cowboys would be complete without Mr Mangini. This hot corner...er? lead the 06 Cape Cod league in batting. While his numbers this season have been somewhat short of dominate, .343/.445/.566, they're still pretty darned good and he's already proven he can hit with the wood bat.
Kyle Russell OF UT - This longhorn right fielder lead DI in slugging this year, .877! Very tall and fairly thin, Russell has a very quick bat and big time power. Russell has a decent eye, 35BB in 187AB's, but swings and misses an awful lot, 32% of the time over the last two years. Russell also lead the 06 Cap Cod League in K's. I could see him being somewhat of a Shawn Green type player.
Mitch Canham C OrSt - Canham is the kind of college player I really like, accomplished college player, who plays a premium defensive position, who has a great eye at the plate, and a little bit of pop. Canham hit .352/.478/.593 for the Beavers this year.
Danny Payne OF GaTech - Along with Canham and Brown, Payne is another vastly underrated player in this year's draft. Payne has the patience at the plate to carry him all the way to the bigs. He's small and over looked by a lot of scouts but I'll take a guy who hit .393/.522/.582 on my team.
Now I have a sneaking suspicion that none of these guys will be Rangers, but all of them stand a good chance at being good big leaguers...and most of them will. JD the challenge is officially on, see what you can do with an entire scouting department a multi-million dollar budget and far more time than I have. I still think I'm the favorite in this.
Anyway I'm off to the Temple to see Dice-K v B-Mac. I'll be back with more hitters, the pitchers and the few high school players I've seen enough to make a recommendation about.
Wednesday, May 23, 2007
Crazy Athlete of the Week
This week's award goes to Tampa Bay Devil Rays rookie Elijah Dukes. Pretty wheels off story. So congrats to Mr. Dukes, the inaugural winner of this prestigious award.
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
Pretty Nice little Tuesday
Pretty major sports Tuesday, several topics to cover. We'll get to what we can but I doubt we can cover everything...I don't know if we'll have enough time.
Big news, that you heard first here, North Texas will host Super Bowl XLV
Since you come to Sports Bullies for all the most up to date information on the web, here are the VERY FIRST Super Bowl XLV Predictions:
JJ: The Dallas Cowboys defeat the Cincinnati Bengals. Bill Cower coaches the Boys to his second Super Bowl victory.
KC: Cowboys over Cleveland Browns. Da Boys win "the Battle for Brady Quinn", as Tony Romo out duels Quinn who had an off day due to his on going custody battle with now ex-wife Scarlett Johannson. Score Dallas 137 Cleveland -4
Brian: Redskins beat San Diego 27-14. The Redskins philosophy of spending tons of money on over the hill superstars finally pays off as a new technology is discovered that reverses physical aging. The Redskins, lead by a resurgent John Elway and Jerry Rice, demolish the competition in route to thier super bowl win. (Jerry Rice actually did not use any age reducing cream, he simply doubled his offseason training regiment). A young looking coach Joe Gibbs dismisses questions about use of the age reducing technology by saying the team won simply because they were "super smart". Super Bowl MVP Clinton Portis says he is going to use his super bowl earnings to buy a dog training and fighting facility. Roger Godell upon hearing the news crys and itches his sandy vagina.
Dallas the pre season favorite to win the super bowl fell short due to Tony "Homo" Romo botching an extra point hold for the 5th season in a row. Dallas Coach Wade "son of bum" Phillips defends his decision to keep Romo in as the extra point holder by saying "My man boobs are not as big as Parcells but they still have power!!!!"
KC: Who wins in a fight, Wade Phillips vs a Hurricane?
Lincoln & JJ: Wade Phillips!!
KC: Not so fast my friends, the name of the hurricane is hurricane Wade Phillips.
Lincoln: Oooohh
JJ: That is a tough one...
Brian: I don't think you can actually say Super Bowl, we might get sued by the NFL for saying it. Look out for Goodell!
Sorry that we have to cut this blog short...JJ made the kitchen explode...no time to explain.
Big news, that you heard first here, North Texas will host Super Bowl XLV
Since you come to Sports Bullies for all the most up to date information on the web, here are the VERY FIRST Super Bowl XLV Predictions:
JJ: The Dallas Cowboys defeat the Cincinnati Bengals. Bill Cower coaches the Boys to his second Super Bowl victory.
KC: Cowboys over Cleveland Browns. Da Boys win "the Battle for Brady Quinn", as Tony Romo out duels Quinn who had an off day due to his on going custody battle with now ex-wife Scarlett Johannson. Score Dallas 137 Cleveland -4
**Correction KC informs me that his prediction was 137 to -5 because "how could you get -4??!!?" **
Lincoln: Dallas beats New England. The Cowboys end the Pats back to back Super Bowl run as Wade Phillips out coaches Bill Belicheck with Tony Romo catching the game winning touchdown on a half back pass from the leagues leading rusher, Darren McFadden. Coach Philips' use of the single wing offense will earn him a spot in football lore. Despite the late game heroics, Super Bowl XLV will always be remembered for the half time show when Hanna Montana experiences another infamous 'wardrobe malfunction.'Brian: Redskins beat San Diego 27-14. The Redskins philosophy of spending tons of money on over the hill superstars finally pays off as a new technology is discovered that reverses physical aging. The Redskins, lead by a resurgent John Elway and Jerry Rice, demolish the competition in route to thier super bowl win. (Jerry Rice actually did not use any age reducing cream, he simply doubled his offseason training regiment). A young looking coach Joe Gibbs dismisses questions about use of the age reducing technology by saying the team won simply because they were "super smart". Super Bowl MVP Clinton Portis says he is going to use his super bowl earnings to buy a dog training and fighting facility. Roger Godell upon hearing the news crys and itches his sandy vagina.
Dallas the pre season favorite to win the super bowl fell short due to Tony "Homo" Romo botching an extra point hold for the 5th season in a row. Dallas Coach Wade "son of bum" Phillips defends his decision to keep Romo in as the extra point holder by saying "My man boobs are not as big as Parcells but they still have power!!!!"
KC: Who wins in a fight, Wade Phillips vs a Hurricane?
Lincoln & JJ: Wade Phillips!!
KC: Not so fast my friends, the name of the hurricane is hurricane Wade Phillips.
Lincoln: Oooohh
JJ: That is a tough one...
Brian: I don't think you can actually say Super Bowl, we might get sued by the NFL for saying it. Look out for Goodell!
Sorry that we have to cut this blog short...JJ made the kitchen explode...no time to explain.
2011 SUPER BOWL
BREAKING NEWS!!!
Dallas will host the 2011 Super Bowl in their new stadium.
Hotels and restaurants are starting to jack up prices as we speak.
Thanks Stauback.
Dallas will host the 2011 Super Bowl in their new stadium.
Hotels and restaurants are starting to jack up prices as we speak.
Thanks Stauback.
Sunday, May 20, 2007
A Shocking Sports Week
There are quite a lot of hot sports topics to hit on this post: the Bavarian Blitzkrieg taking home some major hardware, Blalock becoming a dinosaur, the Rangers... yeah the Rangers, the Yankees reverting to pre-1920's status, Goodell's Guiltiness Gamut, and the OS (Obscure Sport) of the week: Women's College Water Polo. Let's take these from the back to the front. Just like with your mom... Last night... In your bed... Sorry, these just keep coming to me...
Women's College... Moving on.
Goodell's Guiltiness Gamut* (Also the name of our upcoming Neo-classical Hard rock/techno band featuring guest vocals from Willie Nelson.)
*Gamut really reminded us of the X-Men character Gambit who, in some kind of cruel sick joke, hasn't been in any of the 3 previous movies. How is that possible. You have Quill but not Gambit!?!? His renegade style and New-Orleans based character should be enough.
The legal system is based on precedent. So we are trying to come up with a scale, or a gamut have you, of offenses and their corresponding punishments. Here is what our hard-working, under-paid researchers have come up with
0 games: Killing someone. Some examples would include Ray-Ray Lewis, and Leonard Little straight up murdering someones ass.
2 games: Unnecessary roughness. An example would be Martin v. McMahon.
JJ: Wow, unnecessary roughness, sounds like my Friday night.
Lincoln: You were in Temple Friday night.
4 games: Forming an army large enough to fortify Lesotho. Examples: Tank Johnson actually owning a tank or some other highly illegal weapon, Rocket Ismail, his brother Missile Ismail, and not to be forgotten Rifles McGee.
5 games: Stomping a mud hole in someones goofy ass because your team was getting owned and you were getting destroyed by the player that you repeatedly stomped in the face after you ripped off his helmet. Example being Albert "Look who we've got our Haynes(worth) on now."
JJ: (Shaking head in disgust) "Your better than that."
Lincoln: Sorry had a little Berman in me. I can see that you have that look in your eye. I'm gonna go back, back, back. back...
JJ: Btw, we need to party with that guy.
8 games: Contributing to the delinquency of a minor. Example Chris Henry, who's 4,000 other arrests don't help his case.
JJ: Wow, "contributing to the delinquency of a minor", sounds like my Friday night.
Lincoln: You think your cool, with your little Jew 'fro?
1 year: Making it RAIN!! Unless you are English or retarded you know who we are talking about.
As Yankee haters world-wide have rejoiced, the Yankees have decided to put up the white flag already. As evident of this, is the many mysterious injuries to their players. Hughes; which saddened the Merkins, C-Piddy, and over half the roster. I mean really, how many hamstring injuries can you have in a week? 10 1/2 back in the division (to the 2007 World Series Champs), 8 1/2 back in the Wild Card, behind 7 other teams in said Wild Card which is 1 fewer than the number of pitchers who have made their MLB debut this season including Tyler Clippard making him the "Yankee Clippard" and only ahead of 4 teams in the American League.
Speaking of one of those teams, your 2007 Texas Rangers.
JJ: Isn't their slogan "You could use some baseball"?
Lincoln: No. They now changed it to "We Suck." or "You could use some baseball- open tryouts June 2-4."
JJ: Nice!!
So to try and put a little positive spin on this, the Rangers DID win 2 of 3 and kinda captured the Silver Boot for now. They are now off pace for 100 loses!!! Call Laura Miller, get a parade planned. I'm officially putting my skills as a talent evaluator against those in the Rangers front office.
In other Rangers news, Blalock was diagnosed with Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. We can't decide if that means he is the God of Thunder or a dinosaur. All we know is he is getting a rib removed, presumably by doctor God Shammgod.
Finally, and most importantly, Dirka Dirka, MVP.
JJ: Today redemption is spelled D-I-R-K. Also, gay is spelled C-U-B-A-N.
Lincoln: Actually, I thought it was beautiful that he was able to express his emotions in such a beautiful and heartwarming way. To tell another man what he truly means is all too rare in the world of sports and I for one applaud him for it. (Sniff)
JJ: (Blank look) FAG!!!
I for one wasn't sad or ashamed Dirk won because its a FREAKIN' REGULAR SEASON AWARD. Dirk was amazing and there is no denying that. And for all those Suns homers that say the Suns can't win without Nash as evident from their record and that the Mavs could win without Dirk just because he could stay healthy, just know that Nash is no where near the caliber of Russell, Bird, and Chamberlin. He isn't a 3 time MVP, so get off your high horse. Also, he got the Suns 1 freakin' round further than Dirk did. Not a lot to brag about there. So in closing, congrats Dirk, and piss off Suns retards.
Women's College... Moving on.
Goodell's Guiltiness Gamut* (Also the name of our upcoming Neo-classical Hard rock/techno band featuring guest vocals from Willie Nelson.)
*Gamut really reminded us of the X-Men character Gambit who, in some kind of cruel sick joke, hasn't been in any of the 3 previous movies. How is that possible. You have Quill but not Gambit!?!? His renegade style and New-Orleans based character should be enough.
The legal system is based on precedent. So we are trying to come up with a scale, or a gamut have you, of offenses and their corresponding punishments. Here is what our hard-working, under-paid researchers have come up with
0 games: Killing someone. Some examples would include Ray-Ray Lewis, and Leonard Little straight up murdering someones ass.
2 games: Unnecessary roughness. An example would be Martin v. McMahon.
JJ: Wow, unnecessary roughness, sounds like my Friday night.
Lincoln: You were in Temple Friday night.
4 games: Forming an army large enough to fortify Lesotho. Examples: Tank Johnson actually owning a tank or some other highly illegal weapon, Rocket Ismail, his brother Missile Ismail, and not to be forgotten Rifles McGee.
5 games: Stomping a mud hole in someones goofy ass because your team was getting owned and you were getting destroyed by the player that you repeatedly stomped in the face after you ripped off his helmet. Example being Albert "Look who we've got our Haynes(worth) on now."
JJ: (Shaking head in disgust) "Your better than that."
Lincoln: Sorry had a little Berman in me. I can see that you have that look in your eye. I'm gonna go back, back, back. back...
JJ: Btw, we need to party with that guy.
8 games: Contributing to the delinquency of a minor. Example Chris Henry, who's 4,000 other arrests don't help his case.
JJ: Wow, "contributing to the delinquency of a minor", sounds like my Friday night.
Lincoln: You think your cool, with your little Jew 'fro?
1 year: Making it RAIN!! Unless you are English or retarded you know who we are talking about.
As Yankee haters world-wide have rejoiced, the Yankees have decided to put up the white flag already. As evident of this, is the many mysterious injuries to their players. Hughes; which saddened the Merkins, C-Piddy, and over half the roster. I mean really, how many hamstring injuries can you have in a week? 10 1/2 back in the division (to the 2007 World Series Champs), 8 1/2 back in the Wild Card, behind 7 other teams in said Wild Card which is 1 fewer than the number of pitchers who have made their MLB debut this season including Tyler Clippard making him the "Yankee Clippard" and only ahead of 4 teams in the American League.
Speaking of one of those teams, your 2007 Texas Rangers.
JJ: Isn't their slogan "You could use some baseball"?
Lincoln: No. They now changed it to "We Suck." or "You could use some baseball- open tryouts June 2-4."
JJ: Nice!!
So to try and put a little positive spin on this, the Rangers DID win 2 of 3 and kinda captured the Silver Boot for now. They are now off pace for 100 loses!!! Call Laura Miller, get a parade planned. I'm officially putting my skills as a talent evaluator against those in the Rangers front office.
In other Rangers news, Blalock was diagnosed with Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. We can't decide if that means he is the God of Thunder or a dinosaur. All we know is he is getting a rib removed, presumably by doctor God Shammgod.
Finally, and most importantly, Dirka Dirka, MVP.
JJ: Today redemption is spelled D-I-R-K. Also, gay is spelled C-U-B-A-N.
Lincoln: Actually, I thought it was beautiful that he was able to express his emotions in such a beautiful and heartwarming way. To tell another man what he truly means is all too rare in the world of sports and I for one applaud him for it. (Sniff)
JJ: (Blank look) FAG!!!
I for one wasn't sad or ashamed Dirk won because its a FREAKIN' REGULAR SEASON AWARD. Dirk was amazing and there is no denying that. And for all those Suns homers that say the Suns can't win without Nash as evident from their record and that the Mavs could win without Dirk just because he could stay healthy, just know that Nash is no where near the caliber of Russell, Bird, and Chamberlin. He isn't a 3 time MVP, so get off your high horse. Also, he got the Suns 1 freakin' round further than Dirk did. Not a lot to brag about there. So in closing, congrats Dirk, and piss off Suns retards.
Saturday, May 19, 2007
Preakness Picks
Lincoln here to win you money.
The exact box is fairly easy on this one:
4 - Curlin
8 - Street Sense
It won't pay much, but the odds of it hitting are extremely good.... As I'm writing this the odds on Street Sense are just 7-5 which is a little high, I expect those odds to go down, he should go off at even money.... and that's still not a bad bet!
So now that you've got the 4 and 8 boxed and next month's rent on Street Sense straight up... Here's how to retire early it's a big ticket but if it doesn't hit I'll give away a special free three year subscription to Sports Bullies!
Superfecta:
Win: 4/8
Place: 3/4/8
Show: 2/3/4/5/7
Fourth: 2/3/5/7
Count it! Championship!
The exact box is fairly easy on this one:
4 - Curlin
8 - Street Sense
It won't pay much, but the odds of it hitting are extremely good.... As I'm writing this the odds on Street Sense are just 7-5 which is a little high, I expect those odds to go down, he should go off at even money.... and that's still not a bad bet!
So now that you've got the 4 and 8 boxed and next month's rent on Street Sense straight up... Here's how to retire early it's a big ticket but if it doesn't hit I'll give away a special free three year subscription to Sports Bullies!
Superfecta:
Win: 4/8
Place: 3/4/8
Show: 2/3/4/5/7
Fourth: 2/3/5/7
Count it! Championship!
Wednesday, May 16, 2007
Teaming with Basebally Goodness
I was planning on writing a big article with JJ, but he couldn't do it because he had to go to the store and pick up more cranberry juice.
Anyway I figure I'll spend a little time talking about the most underrated sporting event of the year...the MLB Draft!!! Draft!!!!! Maybe I just like any draft way too much, maybe I just like baseball way too much, but I'm stoked about the baseball draft actually being on tv this year. I also noticed that outside of Baseball America there is virtually no body covering this thing. Never fear baseball fans, especially fans of shitty teams, Sports Bullies is here!
Each week up until the draft I'll take some time to go over a few prospects, rankings, yadda yadda...onto the good stuff.
I'm going to start off slow and gradually work my way up, I don't want to pull a hammy writing this stuff. Here's a look at the top 2 college hitters in this draft:
Anyway I figure I'll spend a little time talking about the most underrated sporting event of the year...the MLB Draft!!! Draft!!!!! Maybe I just like any draft way too much, maybe I just like baseball way too much, but I'm stoked about the baseball draft actually being on tv this year. I also noticed that outside of Baseball America there is virtually no body covering this thing. Never fear baseball fans, especially fans of shitty teams, Sports Bullies is here!
Each week up until the draft I'll take some time to go over a few prospects, rankings, yadda yadda...onto the good stuff.
I'm going to start off slow and gradually work my way up, I don't want to pull a hammy writing this stuff. Here's a look at the top 2 college hitters in this draft:
- Matt Wieters C Georgia Tech
Learn this name quick, because he could be starting for the Cubs in 2010, OK so you have some time to figure out if it's a "W" sound or a "V" ( I will reveal the answer in 2009.) But why is Wieters so good? Well as one scouting director put it, "Look, he's a switch-hitter, he can really hit, and he has huge power as well. What's not to like?" How many switch hitting catchers are there with real power? Not many, and this guy's legit. Wieters is currently hitting .355/.480/.606 for the Jackets with 56 walks to only 39 K's. His bat control and plate discipline are almost unprecedented for a 6'5'' catcher with power. Wieters is also known for being a defensively advanced catcher, with an outstanding arm. Over the last two seasons Weiters has stuck out just 71 times at the plate in 486 ABs, while striking out 67 in 72 inning as GT's closer. There are some downsides to this super stud prospect however, he is represented by the Antichrist, Scott Boras, which could result in a Brady Quinn like wait on Draft Day. Unlike Quinn, Wieters will still get paid like a top 5 pick, even if goes in the late teens. In a perfect Ranger fan world he's still there at #17...and we actually take him. M-Wie is taller than virtually every catcher ever. Most feel that at 6'5'' 230lbs there is simply too much pressure and force placed on the knees to allow for a long healthy career so he may switch positions down the road... but Mike Piazza is of similar size and I really can't think of a better comparison. When you think of Wieters think Piazza who can throw.
2. Matt LaPorta 1B Florida
LaPorta might only be #2 on my board and Billy Beane's, that was meant to be a compliment to the Gator slugger. Just look at his current numbers: .423/.579/.853. He gets on base 58% of the time... 58! I realize a lot of you don't pay that much attention to college baseball, and I know they use metal bats...but that is really freakin good! He's top 20 in the country in batting average and runs scored, top 5 in OBP, SLUG, and HRs. I've talked a lot about LaPorta's numbers but here is a very intriguing number...3. Three is how many more times Matt has been hit by pitch than he has struck out. He's been beaned 18 times and only whiffed 15. Patience, Power and Bat Control... I've said it before and I'm sure I'll say it again in this blog and again when he's raking in the show... Matt LaPorta can hit. Despite the glowing review I've just giving him, LaPorta is still seen as a last half of the first round pick. Scouts question his defensive ability at first base, and while he will never win a gold glove I do think he's good enough (and yes I have seen him play multiple times in person and half a dozen more on TV) More pressing are injury issues, oblique strains cost him most of his junior season. He's clearly healthy now... and even if he's not just think of what he can do when he finally does get back to 100%!!! Texas has picks, 17, 24, 35, 44, 54 and 81 in the first two rounds and while everyone knows the Rangers have a constant need for pitching this farm system is anemic when it comes to impact bats. If LaPorta is still there at #24 and they pass him up I may not blog again for a while because I'll probably be wanted for murder.
I should lay low for a while... I'll hit y'all up with some more knowledge when the coast is clear. Peace.
Friday, May 11, 2007
New Favorite Athlete
...No it's not "Old Hoss" Radbourn star pitcher for the 1884 Providence Grays (book coming soon) it's Allison Stokke (pronounced stow-key.)After several minutes, some of my most astute readers may have noticed that there is a large pole in the picture, that's because Allison...I call her Allison because we're on a first name basis, I mean I know we just met, but it feels like we've known each other for such a long time doesn't it? It just feels right... is a champion girls high school pole vaulter in California, that's right I can't make this stuff up!
No worries though fellas, she is 18! Take that Dateline!
The crazy thing is that she's actually good. She set the U.S. record for a freshman girl at 12'8", and her present personal best is a couple inches off the best high school girls mark.
I really can't believe that someone so hot can have break the Unintentional Sexual Humor Scale, I mean I didn't even have to type any of it...just add any "pole vaulting" joke or "Oh yeah", "I'll bet", "That's what she said" to the end of virtually any sentence to get pure comic gold.
Al is also a YouTube sensation, no doubt because she's accomplished in her sport. But the best part of her YouTube Interview, is when the interviewer asks if she has "any big meets coming up?" I think we all know the answer.
NOTE: This is the first picture on this site, mostly because the nerd that I make do all the technical stuff didn't show me how until just now. But I think it's something more, something special, like destiny...Seriously, why won't you return my phone calls? And what happened to that puppy I sent you? I don't have it and I know you're not raising that damn thing. I want to wear your skin...I mean, like, if you're not doin' anything Saturday maybe we could, like, hang out...If that's cool, I mean, if not that's cool too, just whatever. Maybe? SWEET! So you're tellin' me there's a chance.
PPS: If you can name all the movie references in there, leave you're answer in the comment section and you'll be put in a raffle to win a free years subscription to SportsBullies!
THIS JUST IN
Ricky Williams likes pot.
I know ESPN has had some really obvious "BREAKING NEWS" stories recently (Kevin Durant going pro?)...but wow. If the dude would rather smoke weed than run 10 miles a day and get tackled by Ray Lewis, I really can't say I blame him.
I know ESPN has had some really obvious "BREAKING NEWS" stories recently (Kevin Durant going pro?)...but wow. If the dude would rather smoke weed than run 10 miles a day and get tackled by Ray Lewis, I really can't say I blame him.
Tuesday, May 8, 2007
Mavs Moves to Success
The Mavs just completed one of the most shocking exits in the history of sport. I'm still not right, but picking the trifecta box and Pretty Boy over the Golden Boy helped pick me up...I really need to start charging for those picks...we're giving away your bookies money here at Sports Bullies! But I still can't fathom basketball in May and June without the beloved Mavs. Now this ship needs to be righted, not blown up. Here are the 3 trades, as well as draft picks and signings, the Mavs should make to become the champions they really are.
First off, the players that won't be going anywhere:
Dirk
There's been a lot of Dirk bashing given his playoff performance, but he's one of the five best players in the association. Period. They got to the finals last year with him as the #1 and won 67 games with Dirk as Kaiser. Dirk goes off every year and focus on improving one part of his game, my guess is this year it is his low post game. Fear not Mavs fans, Dirk will drown his sorrows, get over it and come back as good as new... Man, it's lonely on the bandwagon now, at least I have lots of elbow room.
Harris
He can be maddeningly inconsistent, but that's only because his tremendous potential is so obvious. He's the future at PG, and the future is good. He should have starting point guard duties to himself next year...but more on that later...
Ager
I really thought he made great strides in his game. Sure it took him half the season to figure out that the secret to more playing time isn't jacking up crazy shots every time the ball gets in your hands, but he has all the tools to develop into a really good, dynamic player.
J-Ho
He's got crazy game. He can play D, or make it rain.
Pops
I have an unbridled man crush on Pops. He has all the size, athleticism, skill, and desire to be a player.
Diop
Athletic, good rebounding, defensive minded centers don't grow on trees. Sure he's about as comfortable with the rock in his hands as this kid is talking to girls... but what he does, he does well. Along with Dirk, Harris and Howard, Gana is part of the Mavericks core that can...WILL win multiple championships.
Mbenga
Like I said, athletic, good rebounding, defensive minded centers don't grow on trees. DJ gives Dallas two of them. Plus with Popeye Jones too old to play, the Mavs need to fill their quota of goofy looking centers with giant ears.
Stack**
I note that Stack is a free agent and NEEDS to be brought back. He has heart, can drive to the hole, and is a leader that bring legit toughness to a roster that has a growing problem of being labeled soft. The Mavs must bring him back first and foremost.
Trades
Abdur-Rahim for Buckner,Barea,and George(George can't be traded till the end of the season hence the reason we have Mbenga here as his salary is almost identical.)
This deal would provide the Mavs with one of their biggest needs; a true PF to back up the Big German. Abdur-Rahim is no superstar anymore but he is still a viable option coming off the bench. Injuries have been a problem in the past but last year he played in 80 games, starting 35+ so that is encouraging. He is a 10/5/2 guy that is gritty and can play a little D, especially in the kind of D played here in Dallas. Abdur-Rahim is a tough cover because he can take big men away from the basket and beat them off the dribble, but he also has a low-post game centered around an extremely effective right-hand jump hook. When he plays away from the basket, he shoots a line drive jump shot that's surprisingly effective from mid-range, and unlike most American big men he's deadly from the foul line at 81.5 percent for his career. He fills a HUGE NEED for the Mavs, a guy who can actually play in the paint and actually force people to cover him offensively. The whole point of having a 4 like Dirk who can stretch D's is if you have someone down low that is also a threat, forcing opponents to try and cover way too much ground. As currently constituted, Dallas is just a bunch of perimeter players, SAR would give Dallas it's best low post player since the glory days of Roy Tarpley. For Sac this has to be an appealing deal. They get a young PG with lots of upside in a time when the future of Bibby is uncertain. They also get two veteran defenders, one of whom is a proven champion. They might even throw in a second rounder. Odds on a scale of 1-10 this deal can be done: 9.
Caron Butler, Etan Thomas, and Brendan Haywood for Terry, Damp, and 2008 1st round pick.
A deal that makes the Mavs instant favorites. Butler is a proven scorer and slasher at the 2-guard position, a place of sore need for the Mavs. (The Sports Bullies have nothin but love for Jet Terry, but he's just not a great fit here in Dallas anymore.) He also is big and athletic and can guard the likes of Wade, B-Diddy, ect. Etan Thomas is a former Mav that has about half of Damp's numbers for half the price: makes sense to me. Haywood would be shipped off in a later trade. The big question here is, "would Washington trade Butler?" Although the pick would be a late first rounder, it's a nice start. Brendan Haywood as asked to be traded, it is definitely not out of the realm of possibility that a trade starts with Haywood and turns into something much, much bigger. Also, the idea of teaming Jet and Agent Zero up is intriguing. Terry would instantly replace the scoring that Butler gave the Wiz while also giving them the closest thing to a true starting point guard they'd have on their roster. And while Damp is overpaid and somewhat of a bust, he is no Shawn Bradley. (Quick aside here, I miss Bradley. Yeah I know I sound crazy, but I miss him from a pure comedic standpoint. A guy that is know as both "the Praying Mantis" and "the Stormin' Mormin" has to have a place on this team. Can't he be like height coach or something?) Odds of this deal going through: 6.5.
Ty Lue for Haywood
Pretty straight forward deal here. Mavs need a back-up PG and the Hawks could use a big body. Assuming they address guard issues via the draft, Acie Law IV?, a better than zero chance, then this deal makes sense for both teams. Lue is a decent backup with great quickness that can play some D for the Mavs. This deal would have to wait until after the draft because if Hotlanta got lucky enough to draft Oden, then there's no way they'd want Haywood. As a general rule I'm against trading big for small, but this deal would be trading a luxury for a need which takes priority. Odds of this deal going through: 8.73 (...and 1.27 that they get Oden)
Draft
The Mavs have 3 2nd rounders, which is a good thing in one of the deepest drafts in years. Pick 34 from the portly point guard trade this year, pick 50 from the underrated 2006 draft day Pinnick deal, and our own pick 60.
With the 34th pick the Mavs should take Sophomore phenom Kareem...ur...Brandon Rush from Kansas (I would also trade Johnson for Kareem Rush. Mizzo Pride!) The SG/SF is a 6-6, 202 lb. scoring machine that plays huge in crunch time. He is quick, fearless, and a player in the mold of a Josh Howard mixed with the good parts of Rashard Lewis. I have no idea how he could slip this far in the draft, but this is a phenomenally deep year. Would provide instant help to the Mavs.
With the 50th pick the Mavs should trade down 5 spots and pick up an extra 2nd rounder next year. With the 55th pick, the Mavs need to take Boston College SF Jared Dudley. The kid is a big time prospect that can score and play great D. He fits the Mavs scheme very well. A great fit behind J-Ho and Rush. Scouts think that he's too slow to play the 3 and too small to be a 4, but he's a very, very smart player with polished offensive skills. He would immediately be the Mavs best passer off the block.
With the 60th pick the Mavs should trade up 3 spots with this pick and the extra 2nd ronder acquired in the Dudley deal. With the 57th pick, the Mavs should go with the National Champs PG, Taurean Green. Kid is the real deal; passes well, drives to the hoop, and leads well, as is evident from his college hardware. He may never be an all-star or even a starter, but he would be a terrific glue guy coming off the bench. Everyone have tons of credit and attention to Noah, Harfod and Brewer on those Gators squads, but Taurean made them go.
I would like to note it is tuff to pass on Nick Fazekas but the need for a PF has been addressed. Also Reyshawn Terry is a Stephen Jackson clone from Chapel Hill, minus the thug image. He and Dudley are a coin flip but I think Dudley is more polished. Another name to keep an eye on come draft day is Avis Wyatt from Virginia State. He's a 6'10'' forward with great quickness and ball skills who will need to get stronger and adjust to playing at a MUCH higher level of competition, but dude's got skills.
So the line ups would look something like this:
Starters
PG- Devin Harris
SG- Caron Butler
SF- Josh Howard
PF- Dirk Nowitzki
C- DeSagana Diop
2nd Team
PG- Tyronn Lue
SG- Jerry Stackhouse
SF- Brandon Rush
PF- Shareef Abdur-Rahim
C- Etan Thomas
3rd Team
PG- Taurean Green
SG- Maurice Ager
SF- Jared Dudley
PF- Pops Mensah-Bonsu
C- D.J. Mbenga
Mark it down. Championship. I should really be a GM because this team would win a minimum of 5 straight championships, while the 3rd string guys would be the favs to stop Florida's run of dominance in the NCAA tourney. They are that good.
First off, the players that won't be going anywhere:
Dirk
There's been a lot of Dirk bashing given his playoff performance, but he's one of the five best players in the association. Period. They got to the finals last year with him as the #1 and won 67 games with Dirk as Kaiser. Dirk goes off every year and focus on improving one part of his game, my guess is this year it is his low post game. Fear not Mavs fans, Dirk will drown his sorrows, get over it and come back as good as new... Man, it's lonely on the bandwagon now, at least I have lots of elbow room.
Harris
He can be maddeningly inconsistent, but that's only because his tremendous potential is so obvious. He's the future at PG, and the future is good. He should have starting point guard duties to himself next year...but more on that later...
Ager
I really thought he made great strides in his game. Sure it took him half the season to figure out that the secret to more playing time isn't jacking up crazy shots every time the ball gets in your hands, but he has all the tools to develop into a really good, dynamic player.
J-Ho
He's got crazy game. He can play D, or make it rain.
Pops
I have an unbridled man crush on Pops. He has all the size, athleticism, skill, and desire to be a player.
Diop
Athletic, good rebounding, defensive minded centers don't grow on trees. Sure he's about as comfortable with the rock in his hands as this kid is talking to girls... but what he does, he does well. Along with Dirk, Harris and Howard, Gana is part of the Mavericks core that can...WILL win multiple championships.
Mbenga
Like I said, athletic, good rebounding, defensive minded centers don't grow on trees. DJ gives Dallas two of them. Plus with Popeye Jones too old to play, the Mavs need to fill their quota of goofy looking centers with giant ears.
Stack**
I note that Stack is a free agent and NEEDS to be brought back. He has heart, can drive to the hole, and is a leader that bring legit toughness to a roster that has a growing problem of being labeled soft. The Mavs must bring him back first and foremost.
Trades
Abdur-Rahim for Buckner,Barea,and George(George can't be traded till the end of the season hence the reason we have Mbenga here as his salary is almost identical.)
This deal would provide the Mavs with one of their biggest needs; a true PF to back up the Big German. Abdur-Rahim is no superstar anymore but he is still a viable option coming off the bench. Injuries have been a problem in the past but last year he played in 80 games, starting 35+ so that is encouraging. He is a 10/5/2 guy that is gritty and can play a little D, especially in the kind of D played here in Dallas. Abdur-Rahim is a tough cover because he can take big men away from the basket and beat them off the dribble, but he also has a low-post game centered around an extremely effective right-hand jump hook. When he plays away from the basket, he shoots a line drive jump shot that's surprisingly effective from mid-range, and unlike most American big men he's deadly from the foul line at 81.5 percent for his career. He fills a HUGE NEED for the Mavs, a guy who can actually play in the paint and actually force people to cover him offensively. The whole point of having a 4 like Dirk who can stretch D's is if you have someone down low that is also a threat, forcing opponents to try and cover way too much ground. As currently constituted, Dallas is just a bunch of perimeter players, SAR would give Dallas it's best low post player since the glory days of Roy Tarpley. For Sac this has to be an appealing deal. They get a young PG with lots of upside in a time when the future of Bibby is uncertain. They also get two veteran defenders, one of whom is a proven champion. They might even throw in a second rounder. Odds on a scale of 1-10 this deal can be done: 9.
Caron Butler, Etan Thomas, and Brendan Haywood for Terry, Damp, and 2008 1st round pick.
A deal that makes the Mavs instant favorites. Butler is a proven scorer and slasher at the 2-guard position, a place of sore need for the Mavs. (The Sports Bullies have nothin but love for Jet Terry, but he's just not a great fit here in Dallas anymore.) He also is big and athletic and can guard the likes of Wade, B-Diddy, ect. Etan Thomas is a former Mav that has about half of Damp's numbers for half the price: makes sense to me. Haywood would be shipped off in a later trade. The big question here is, "would Washington trade Butler?" Although the pick would be a late first rounder, it's a nice start. Brendan Haywood as asked to be traded, it is definitely not out of the realm of possibility that a trade starts with Haywood and turns into something much, much bigger. Also, the idea of teaming Jet and Agent Zero up is intriguing. Terry would instantly replace the scoring that Butler gave the Wiz while also giving them the closest thing to a true starting point guard they'd have on their roster. And while Damp is overpaid and somewhat of a bust, he is no Shawn Bradley. (Quick aside here, I miss Bradley. Yeah I know I sound crazy, but I miss him from a pure comedic standpoint. A guy that is know as both "the Praying Mantis" and "the Stormin' Mormin" has to have a place on this team. Can't he be like height coach or something?) Odds of this deal going through: 6.5.
Ty Lue for Haywood
Pretty straight forward deal here. Mavs need a back-up PG and the Hawks could use a big body. Assuming they address guard issues via the draft, Acie Law IV?, a better than zero chance, then this deal makes sense for both teams. Lue is a decent backup with great quickness that can play some D for the Mavs. This deal would have to wait until after the draft because if Hotlanta got lucky enough to draft Oden, then there's no way they'd want Haywood. As a general rule I'm against trading big for small, but this deal would be trading a luxury for a need which takes priority. Odds of this deal going through: 8.73 (...and 1.27 that they get Oden)
Draft
The Mavs have 3 2nd rounders, which is a good thing in one of the deepest drafts in years. Pick 34 from the portly point guard trade this year, pick 50 from the underrated 2006 draft day Pinnick deal, and our own pick 60.
With the 34th pick the Mavs should take Sophomore phenom Kareem...ur...Brandon Rush from Kansas (I would also trade Johnson for Kareem Rush. Mizzo Pride!) The SG/SF is a 6-6, 202 lb. scoring machine that plays huge in crunch time. He is quick, fearless, and a player in the mold of a Josh Howard mixed with the good parts of Rashard Lewis. I have no idea how he could slip this far in the draft, but this is a phenomenally deep year. Would provide instant help to the Mavs.
With the 50th pick the Mavs should trade down 5 spots and pick up an extra 2nd rounder next year. With the 55th pick, the Mavs need to take Boston College SF Jared Dudley. The kid is a big time prospect that can score and play great D. He fits the Mavs scheme very well. A great fit behind J-Ho and Rush. Scouts think that he's too slow to play the 3 and too small to be a 4, but he's a very, very smart player with polished offensive skills. He would immediately be the Mavs best passer off the block.
With the 60th pick the Mavs should trade up 3 spots with this pick and the extra 2nd ronder acquired in the Dudley deal. With the 57th pick, the Mavs should go with the National Champs PG, Taurean Green. Kid is the real deal; passes well, drives to the hoop, and leads well, as is evident from his college hardware. He may never be an all-star or even a starter, but he would be a terrific glue guy coming off the bench. Everyone have tons of credit and attention to Noah, Harfod and Brewer on those Gators squads, but Taurean made them go.
I would like to note it is tuff to pass on Nick Fazekas but the need for a PF has been addressed. Also Reyshawn Terry is a Stephen Jackson clone from Chapel Hill, minus the thug image. He and Dudley are a coin flip but I think Dudley is more polished. Another name to keep an eye on come draft day is Avis Wyatt from Virginia State. He's a 6'10'' forward with great quickness and ball skills who will need to get stronger and adjust to playing at a MUCH higher level of competition, but dude's got skills.
So the line ups would look something like this:
Starters
PG- Devin Harris
SG- Caron Butler
SF- Josh Howard
PF- Dirk Nowitzki
C- DeSagana Diop
2nd Team
PG- Tyronn Lue
SG- Jerry Stackhouse
SF- Brandon Rush
PF- Shareef Abdur-Rahim
C- Etan Thomas
3rd Team
PG- Taurean Green
SG- Maurice Ager
SF- Jared Dudley
PF- Pops Mensah-Bonsu
C- D.J. Mbenga
Mark it down. Championship. I should really be a GM because this team would win a minimum of 5 straight championships, while the 3rd string guys would be the favs to stop Florida's run of dominance in the NCAA tourney. They are that good.
Saturday, May 5, 2007
Predictions
Here is my prediction for the Derby:
Win - 2 Curlin
I think he's the one horse with a real shot of being a super horse and winning the triple crown. If he breaks clean and is able to sit in stalking distance of the leaders no one will be able to catch him down the home stretch. Though he also may get swallowed up by the field and finish in the bottom 5, but that's why they call it gambling.
Place - 8 Hard Spun
All this horse does is win. I'm hoping that trainer Larry Jones knows his horse better than I do and that the blazing workout times Hard Spun has posted are a sign that the horse is in excellent condition, not that he'll be worn out by race time. I just think he's not quite the horse Curlin is.
Show - 7 Street Sense
Yeah, I know this tri wouldn't pay much but Street Sense is a very fast horse. You want some long shots to include in your tri and superfecta boxes? Ok, you've got to add 3 - Zanjero, 6 - Cowtown Cat, 10 - Tueflesburg, 20 - Great Hunter.
Bonus Pick!!!
Mayweather over Dela Hoya in a decision
Win - 2 Curlin
I think he's the one horse with a real shot of being a super horse and winning the triple crown. If he breaks clean and is able to sit in stalking distance of the leaders no one will be able to catch him down the home stretch. Though he also may get swallowed up by the field and finish in the bottom 5, but that's why they call it gambling.
Place - 8 Hard Spun
All this horse does is win. I'm hoping that trainer Larry Jones knows his horse better than I do and that the blazing workout times Hard Spun has posted are a sign that the horse is in excellent condition, not that he'll be worn out by race time. I just think he's not quite the horse Curlin is.
Show - 7 Street Sense
Yeah, I know this tri wouldn't pay much but Street Sense is a very fast horse. You want some long shots to include in your tri and superfecta boxes? Ok, you've got to add 3 - Zanjero, 6 - Cowtown Cat, 10 - Tueflesburg, 20 - Great Hunter.
Bonus Pick!!!
Mayweather over Dela Hoya in a decision
Thursday, May 3, 2007
Kentucky Derby
Lincoln here and as the resident horse racing expert I figure it's my duty to break down the field in the run for the roses. As always the Kentucky Derby has a huge field so grab a mint juleb, sit back, and read up.
1 - Sedgefield (M/L Odds 50-1)
Sedgfield landed in the tough inside post for trainer Darrin Miller and young super-stud jockey Julien Leparoux. Sedgefield has several factors going against him:
Storm In May, who's blind in his right eye, has never won beyond 7 furlongs on dirt for trainer Bill Kaplan, and most of his top efforts have come on grass. His claim to fame at this point is his victory in the Sunshine Millions Dash at Gulfstream Park, a race restricted to Florida and California-breds. He ran 2nd to Curlin in the Arkansas Derby, but it’s tough to imagine he can make up the 10+ lengths needed to turn the tables on that one and all the others. He will probably be trying to come from off the pace in here, and if they go too fast up front, that style will help. Still, he seems to be a notch or two below on his best day, and it’s tough to imagine a board finish for this guy.
5 - Imawildandcrazyguy (50/1)
Bill Kaplan's second big dappled grey is coming off of a really bad race last time out, Florida Derby (GI) where he finished well back in 6th place. He did have a couple good showings, finishing a fast-closing 2nd in the Risen Star (GIII) at Fair Grounds and a respectable 4th in the Louisiana Derby (GII). Imawildandcrazyguy really has not been much of a threat against top company this year, and it will take a very big step up for him to give this group a run for it’s money. He should be near the back of the pack early, and unless he has turned into a completely new horse in the last five weeks, he’ll probably stay there. Imawildandcrazyguy does holds off the 12 - Nobiz Like Showbiz and 14 - Scat Daddy for the best name in this year's Derby. So he's got that going for him, which is nice.
6 - Cowtown Cat (20/1)
One of trainer Todd Pletcher's 37 horses in this years race, I personally think Cowtown Cat is the most underrated horse in this field. Cowtown Cat is coming off of two straight graded stakes wins, Illinois Derby (GII) and the Gotham (GIII.) He finished 3rd in the grade 2 Swale after getting pushed wide and just not having enough race track left to chase down the leaders in the sprint at Gulfstream. However, the fields he beat have been considered rather weak and the fractions he posted aren't overwhelming so the Derby is definitely a jump up in class. One other thing to like about this pricey son of Distorted Humor is the way he has been training recently; his two five furlongs drills over the synthetic surface at Keeneland each stopped the clock in 58 seconds and change. He has shown the ability to perform well in various circumstances but will be asked to adapt once again in this race against much better horses.
7 - Street Sense (4/1)
Despite his distinction of being the second choice on the morning-line, there is reason to believe that Street Sense will go off as the post-time favorite for the race. Last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile (Grade 1) winner and champion 2-year-old has done little wrong in his 3-year-old season. He made his seasonal bow with a gut-wrenching nose victory over Any Given Saturday in the Tampa Bay Derby (Grade 3) before finishing second by just a nose in an oddly run edition of the Toyota Blue Grass (Grade 1). Since that effort he has posted two sharp works over the Churchill Downs strip. He seems to have grown physically and mentally from last year and his trainer, Carl Nafzger, seems to be coming into the race full of confidence. He obviously possesses an immense amount of talent, which he put on display by decimating the Breeders' Cup Juvenile field by a record 10-lengths. It is easy to endorse this dark bay colt as the most likely candidate to wear roses this year.
8 - Hard Spun (15/1)
Hard Spun was the buzz of the backside on April 30 after he tore through a five furlong workout in :57.53, a move many found to be much to quick just five days prior to the Kentucky Derby; trainer Larry Jones seems unconcerned about the sharp move. Hard Spun has won five of his six lifetime starts but has never met the quality type horses he will encounter in the Derby. His 3 ¼-length win in the Lanes End (Grade 2) was visually impressive but saw its credibility diminish with the subsequent defeats of Sedgefield in the Transylvania (Grade 3) and Joe Got Even in the Lexington (Grade 2). It seems more than likely that jockey Mario Pino will take advantage of post eight and stay close to the pacesetters. After that, it simply becomes a question of how good Hard Spun really is and how far he can keep going when the fight gets tough turning for home.
9 - Liquidity (30/1)
Like Giacomo, Liquidity is a Southern California based runner who has consistently run good races but enters the Derby still eligible to participate in a first level allowance race; finding the winner's circle has been a tough task for this Tiznow colt. Both Giacomo and Liquidity finished second in the Hollywood Futurity (Grade 1), placed in the money in the Sham (Grade 3), and entered the Kentucky Derby off a fourth place finish in the Santa Anita Derby (Grade 1). Liquidity has stood in the shadows of his more accomplished stable mate Great Hunter, who also hangs his halter in the Doug O'Neill barn. One of the major concerns regarding Liquidity is his ability to run well outside of California; he has been well beaten in both attempts outside of his home state. Based on his recent performances and poor shipping record, it is tough to make a strong argument for endorsing him as a win candidate.
10 - Teuflesberg (30/1)
Teuflesberg's most recent effort was a fourth place finish in the Toyota Blue Grass (Grade 1) when he was beaten by just a neck for all the money after setting glacier like fractions. It is tough to knock this horse's iron constitution, but there is reason to be skeptical of his abilities to succeed at this level. Despite an obvious lack of serious speed in this edition of the Kentucky Derby, he will certainly not be allowed to set pedestrian fractions when pressed by the likes of Hard Spun, Stormello, and Curlin. Whatever the pace scenario, it is tough to imagine Teuflesberg hanging tough when the top 3-year-olds come running at him on the final turn.
11 - Bwana Bull (50/1)
Bwana Bull will be one of the longest shots in the field come post time Saturday. This could be for a few reasons: he was supposed to run in the Derby Trial last weekend, but had to scratch after getting an ugly looking, but luckily superficial cut on his hind leg; he’s a Grade 3 winner, but that came against admittedly lighter competition in northern California; and his Speed Figures, though on the improve, don’t match up well with most of his foes.
12 - Nobiz Like Showbiz (8/1)
Nobiz Like Showbiz co-third choice (with Circular Quay) at 8-1. Barclay Tagg’s horse has been one of the most scrutinized 3-year-olds throughout the Derby trail, probably because of his obvious talent and show-stopping looks. That could be one of the reasons that Tagg waited until Wednesday to ship to Churchill Downs, making his colt the last contender to get to Louisville. He did the same thing with Funny Cide four years ago, and we all know how that turned out. However, Funny Cide seemed to be progressing through the spring preps, while Nobiz has appeared to run the same race each time, at least by the numbers. Drawing post 12 was ideal for his stalking style, particular with a few speedier types just to his inside, which should help clear the way for him to get to a good spot before the first turn. He should be included in your exotics.
13 - Sam P. (20/1)
This chestnut colt has immaculate breeding, Cat Theif and Affirmed Legacy (Affirmed), and was named after a man named Sam P. He’s 20-1 in the morning line, and will probably drift higher than that off his troubling effort in the Santa Anita Derby. He seemed to fight his jock Ramon Dominguez for most of the trip, when he was wearing blinkers for the first time. He will run without them this time, another indication that was part of the problem. A good second in the Robert Lewis (GII) probably landed him in this spot, because the rest of his resume is fairly light.
14 - Scat Daddy (10/1)
I really like Scat Daddy because what he really is is a grinder that can stay no matter what the pace, finishing strongly every time. He was fourth at Churchill Downs in the Breeders’ Cup, but obviously no threat to a runaway winner. Pletcher has gone on record as saying that he wasn’t in an ideal position going into that race, so that tosses the “dislike the course” theory. Like a lot of these, he’s yet to run a triple digit Beyer Speed Figure, something that it almost always takes to win this race (Giacomo’s 100 in 2005 was the lowest in recent times). Pletcher has always been high on this son of Johannesburg, keeping him in graded company after an ultra-impressive maiden debut at Belmont last June. 2006 Derby winning rider Edgar Prado will ride after picking up the mount for the Florida Derby (GI) win. There is so much to like here, but the Beyer's Rating is holding me back from picking him.
15 - Tiago (15/1)
Tiago was actually a maiden when he won the Santa Anita Derby (GI), as he was placed first following disqualification of the winner in an earlier maiden race. One thing that shouldn’t hurt is the post 15, since he likes to drop back and make a late run anyway. That style could be his undoing here, since there is not a ton of speed in the race, unless a few riders get nervous and press unnecessarily. In a race with two favorites (Curlin and Street Sense), then looks wide open after that and you’re sure to get a decent price of 15-1 or better on a recent Grade 1 winner and half-brother of Giacomo.
16 - Circular Quay (8/1)
Circular Quay will be trying to buck some history by coming into the Derby without having raced in two months; some three weeks longer than Barbaro did last year. Despite his record of being worse than second just once in seven starts (and that was because a horse fell in front of him) and being co-third choice at 8-1 on the morning line, he has become a forgotten horse during the Derby hoopla. He was well backed in all three future wagers, never closing higher than 12-1. Drawing post 16 isn’t as bad as it sounds for this late closing son of 1995 Derby winner Thunder Gulch, who should be well back in the field early. That’s really the bigger issue, as you can almost guarantee he’s going to need some racing luck to weave through the majority of 20 horses. He’ll surely get some play since John Velazquez wound up here after having his choice of Pletcher’s five runners, but will still offer plenty of value when he goes off at somewhere around 10-1.
17 - Stormello (30/1)
Stormello is one of those horses that is going to make plenty of people mad if he manages to score here. He seemed to be an improving horse, and his gameness was without question, earlier in the prep season. That all went by the wayside when he wound up a bad fourth, looking like a tired horse, in the Florida Derby (GI). His trainer Bill Currin admitted that the cross-country trips got to him and the horse, so he took him back to Hollywood Park to regroup. The headstrong colt likes to break running, so Currin has spent the last month trying to get him to relax so he has something left for the finish of these longer races. Though it’s late in the game to be changing tactics, his workouts look like he’s taken to the change. Strangely enough, this Derby doesn’t have a ton of early speed, so Desormeaux will in all likelihood have him near the front when they pass the wire for the first time, and his hand is kind of forced as they break from post 17, one of two positions that have never produced a Derby winner (the other is 19). This colt is definitely battle-tested and will not give up easily, even if he’s not really bred to handle the 10 furlongs. I think his Kentucky Derby run will look a lot like his Florida Derby run:
sprinted clear, set pace to quarter pole, battled to mid stretch, weakened.
18 - Any Given Saturday (12/1)
He took a slight step backward when 3rd in the Wood Memorial last out. That will only serve to help the price. He has shown since his career debut that he is an immensely talented horse, and trainer Todd Pletcher certainly has him ready for his best effort. He has lost two of three this year, but one defeat was to Street Sense when that one just nosed him out on the wire. He ran a strong 2nd in a Grade 2 last fall at Churchill, so there is reason to believe that he likes the surface. The wide post is a concern, but Any Given Saturday is no stranger to being way off the rail. He is by Distorted Humor, who has already sired a Derby winner in Funny Cide. So you know the breeding is right. John Velazquez chooses stablemate Circular Quay instead of this guy, but Garret Gomez is no slouch. There is a lot to like, and he should be 12-1 or higher. Major player who may be able to overcome is bad post position if Pacino doesn't give him a pep talk right before the race.
19 - Dominican (20/1)
This horse may be coming into the race as one of the most blatantly ignored winners of the Toyota Blue Grass (Grade 1). While that race was an oddly run event, Dominican displayed huge strides at the end as he closed an intimidating gap on horses that had already gotten the jump on him, flying home his final furlong in 11 seconds flat. That makes this Darrin Miller trainee 2-for-2 this year and undefeated since being gelded following his 2-year-old campaign. His stock fell a bit when he was allotted the final selection at the post position draw, but an outside post in the Kentucky Derby is not reason to draw a line through a horse's name when you consider the long run into the first turn and the inevitable traffic jam that will be faced by every horse to his inside.
20 - Great Hunter (15/1)
Great Hunter was slated to be one of the Derby favorites before his 5th place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes. He has mild trouble that day, but his rider claimed he was done before the incident and would not have won. He is trying to win the Derby off of just two starts in six months, one of which was a win over a weak field in the Robert Lewis Stakes. He finished 3rd in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile over this track, but he crossed the wire 12+ lengths behind Street Sense. There’s no question that he fits with this bunch on class, but the light schedule and the strange final prep leave a lot of questions unanswered.
I will have my final picks Sat mornin', no sense telling you all now and driving down the odds.
1 - Sedgefield (M/L Odds 50-1)
Sedgfield landed in the tough inside post for trainer Darrin Miller and young super-stud jockey Julien Leparoux. Sedgefield has several factors going against him:
- Post Position
- Four week layoff
- Yet to run on dirt
- Coming off of a bad last race
- Bad recent work out numbers
Other than that, there's a lot to like about Sedgefield!
2 - Curlin (7/2*)
Asmussen's coddled super horse has been nothing short of dominate in each of his three previous career races. Curlin has averaged winning by just over 9.5 lengths. Curlin's toughest trip came in the Grade III Rebel at Oaklawn a month and a half ago. The official chart for the race reads:
CURLIN did not break all that well, second flight early outside, settled, swept toward the front four wide late in the secondturn, put a head in front when straightened for home, kicked clear and was kept to task.
He won by 5.5 lengths in that race. That is the only time that Curlin had any dirt kicked in his face, so its difficult to say how the virtually untested Curlin will react with 70,000 people cheering and 19 other horses banging him around, but maybe he's just too good and will be able to get off clear. If starts poorly again, he will be swallowed up by this massive field. Derby favorites tend to show very poorly and another reason to stay away from Curlin is that he never raced as a 2 year old so history is up against him.
3 - Zanjero (30/1)
I actually like the Asmussen trained horse at this price. He's at his best when he can save his energy for a late charge, but that means that he will need a good pace and a great trip for everything to break his way. One big factor against Zanjero is his jockey, Shaun Bridgmohan, his mounting only his 2nd Derby horse (He rode in his first Derby last year, finishing 15th aboard Private Vow.) His last time out in the dramatic Blue Grass (GI):
ZANJERO, up close from the outset, made a bold run to poke his head in front briefly in the final sixteenth but was outfinished.
Big Z drew the 1 hole in that race and was forced to show more early than he wanted, the same fate may away him on Derby Day. Still, Zanjero finished the Blue Grass within a length of Dominican and Street Sense and showed that he has enough to run with the big boys at an extended distance.
4 - Storm In May (30/1)Storm In May, who's blind in his right eye, has never won beyond 7 furlongs on dirt for trainer Bill Kaplan, and most of his top efforts have come on grass. His claim to fame at this point is his victory in the Sunshine Millions Dash at Gulfstream Park, a race restricted to Florida and California-breds. He ran 2nd to Curlin in the Arkansas Derby, but it’s tough to imagine he can make up the 10+ lengths needed to turn the tables on that one and all the others. He will probably be trying to come from off the pace in here, and if they go too fast up front, that style will help. Still, he seems to be a notch or two below on his best day, and it’s tough to imagine a board finish for this guy.
5 - Imawildandcrazyguy (50/1)
Bill Kaplan's second big dappled grey is coming off of a really bad race last time out, Florida Derby (GI) where he finished well back in 6th place. He did have a couple good showings, finishing a fast-closing 2nd in the Risen Star (GIII) at Fair Grounds and a respectable 4th in the Louisiana Derby (GII). Imawildandcrazyguy really has not been much of a threat against top company this year, and it will take a very big step up for him to give this group a run for it’s money. He should be near the back of the pack early, and unless he has turned into a completely new horse in the last five weeks, he’ll probably stay there. Imawildandcrazyguy does holds off the 12 - Nobiz Like Showbiz and 14 - Scat Daddy for the best name in this year's Derby. So he's got that going for him, which is nice.
6 - Cowtown Cat (20/1)
One of trainer Todd Pletcher's 37 horses in this years race, I personally think Cowtown Cat is the most underrated horse in this field. Cowtown Cat is coming off of two straight graded stakes wins, Illinois Derby (GII) and the Gotham (GIII.) He finished 3rd in the grade 2 Swale after getting pushed wide and just not having enough race track left to chase down the leaders in the sprint at Gulfstream. However, the fields he beat have been considered rather weak and the fractions he posted aren't overwhelming so the Derby is definitely a jump up in class. One other thing to like about this pricey son of Distorted Humor is the way he has been training recently; his two five furlongs drills over the synthetic surface at Keeneland each stopped the clock in 58 seconds and change. He has shown the ability to perform well in various circumstances but will be asked to adapt once again in this race against much better horses.
7 - Street Sense (4/1)
Despite his distinction of being the second choice on the morning-line, there is reason to believe that Street Sense will go off as the post-time favorite for the race. Last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile (Grade 1) winner and champion 2-year-old has done little wrong in his 3-year-old season. He made his seasonal bow with a gut-wrenching nose victory over Any Given Saturday in the Tampa Bay Derby (Grade 3) before finishing second by just a nose in an oddly run edition of the Toyota Blue Grass (Grade 1). Since that effort he has posted two sharp works over the Churchill Downs strip. He seems to have grown physically and mentally from last year and his trainer, Carl Nafzger, seems to be coming into the race full of confidence. He obviously possesses an immense amount of talent, which he put on display by decimating the Breeders' Cup Juvenile field by a record 10-lengths. It is easy to endorse this dark bay colt as the most likely candidate to wear roses this year.
8 - Hard Spun (15/1)
Hard Spun was the buzz of the backside on April 30 after he tore through a five furlong workout in :57.53, a move many found to be much to quick just five days prior to the Kentucky Derby; trainer Larry Jones seems unconcerned about the sharp move. Hard Spun has won five of his six lifetime starts but has never met the quality type horses he will encounter in the Derby. His 3 ¼-length win in the Lanes End (Grade 2) was visually impressive but saw its credibility diminish with the subsequent defeats of Sedgefield in the Transylvania (Grade 3) and Joe Got Even in the Lexington (Grade 2). It seems more than likely that jockey Mario Pino will take advantage of post eight and stay close to the pacesetters. After that, it simply becomes a question of how good Hard Spun really is and how far he can keep going when the fight gets tough turning for home.
9 - Liquidity (30/1)
Like Giacomo, Liquidity is a Southern California based runner who has consistently run good races but enters the Derby still eligible to participate in a first level allowance race; finding the winner's circle has been a tough task for this Tiznow colt. Both Giacomo and Liquidity finished second in the Hollywood Futurity (Grade 1), placed in the money in the Sham (Grade 3), and entered the Kentucky Derby off a fourth place finish in the Santa Anita Derby (Grade 1). Liquidity has stood in the shadows of his more accomplished stable mate Great Hunter, who also hangs his halter in the Doug O'Neill barn. One of the major concerns regarding Liquidity is his ability to run well outside of California; he has been well beaten in both attempts outside of his home state. Based on his recent performances and poor shipping record, it is tough to make a strong argument for endorsing him as a win candidate.
10 - Teuflesberg (30/1)
Teuflesberg's most recent effort was a fourth place finish in the Toyota Blue Grass (Grade 1) when he was beaten by just a neck for all the money after setting glacier like fractions. It is tough to knock this horse's iron constitution, but there is reason to be skeptical of his abilities to succeed at this level. Despite an obvious lack of serious speed in this edition of the Kentucky Derby, he will certainly not be allowed to set pedestrian fractions when pressed by the likes of Hard Spun, Stormello, and Curlin. Whatever the pace scenario, it is tough to imagine Teuflesberg hanging tough when the top 3-year-olds come running at him on the final turn.
11 - Bwana Bull (50/1)
Bwana Bull will be one of the longest shots in the field come post time Saturday. This could be for a few reasons: he was supposed to run in the Derby Trial last weekend, but had to scratch after getting an ugly looking, but luckily superficial cut on his hind leg; he’s a Grade 3 winner, but that came against admittedly lighter competition in northern California; and his Speed Figures, though on the improve, don’t match up well with most of his foes.
12 - Nobiz Like Showbiz (8/1)
Nobiz Like Showbiz co-third choice (with Circular Quay) at 8-1. Barclay Tagg’s horse has been one of the most scrutinized 3-year-olds throughout the Derby trail, probably because of his obvious talent and show-stopping looks. That could be one of the reasons that Tagg waited until Wednesday to ship to Churchill Downs, making his colt the last contender to get to Louisville. He did the same thing with Funny Cide four years ago, and we all know how that turned out. However, Funny Cide seemed to be progressing through the spring preps, while Nobiz has appeared to run the same race each time, at least by the numbers. Drawing post 12 was ideal for his stalking style, particular with a few speedier types just to his inside, which should help clear the way for him to get to a good spot before the first turn. He should be included in your exotics.
13 - Sam P. (20/1)
This chestnut colt has immaculate breeding, Cat Theif and Affirmed Legacy (Affirmed), and was named after a man named Sam P. He’s 20-1 in the morning line, and will probably drift higher than that off his troubling effort in the Santa Anita Derby. He seemed to fight his jock Ramon Dominguez for most of the trip, when he was wearing blinkers for the first time. He will run without them this time, another indication that was part of the problem. A good second in the Robert Lewis (GII) probably landed him in this spot, because the rest of his resume is fairly light.
14 - Scat Daddy (10/1)
I really like Scat Daddy because what he really is is a grinder that can stay no matter what the pace, finishing strongly every time. He was fourth at Churchill Downs in the Breeders’ Cup, but obviously no threat to a runaway winner. Pletcher has gone on record as saying that he wasn’t in an ideal position going into that race, so that tosses the “dislike the course” theory. Like a lot of these, he’s yet to run a triple digit Beyer Speed Figure, something that it almost always takes to win this race (Giacomo’s 100 in 2005 was the lowest in recent times). Pletcher has always been high on this son of Johannesburg, keeping him in graded company after an ultra-impressive maiden debut at Belmont last June. 2006 Derby winning rider Edgar Prado will ride after picking up the mount for the Florida Derby (GI) win. There is so much to like here, but the Beyer's Rating is holding me back from picking him.
15 - Tiago (15/1)
Tiago was actually a maiden when he won the Santa Anita Derby (GI), as he was placed first following disqualification of the winner in an earlier maiden race. One thing that shouldn’t hurt is the post 15, since he likes to drop back and make a late run anyway. That style could be his undoing here, since there is not a ton of speed in the race, unless a few riders get nervous and press unnecessarily. In a race with two favorites (Curlin and Street Sense), then looks wide open after that and you’re sure to get a decent price of 15-1 or better on a recent Grade 1 winner and half-brother of Giacomo.
16 - Circular Quay (8/1)
Circular Quay will be trying to buck some history by coming into the Derby without having raced in two months; some three weeks longer than Barbaro did last year. Despite his record of being worse than second just once in seven starts (and that was because a horse fell in front of him) and being co-third choice at 8-1 on the morning line, he has become a forgotten horse during the Derby hoopla. He was well backed in all three future wagers, never closing higher than 12-1. Drawing post 16 isn’t as bad as it sounds for this late closing son of 1995 Derby winner Thunder Gulch, who should be well back in the field early. That’s really the bigger issue, as you can almost guarantee he’s going to need some racing luck to weave through the majority of 20 horses. He’ll surely get some play since John Velazquez wound up here after having his choice of Pletcher’s five runners, but will still offer plenty of value when he goes off at somewhere around 10-1.
17 - Stormello (30/1)
Stormello is one of those horses that is going to make plenty of people mad if he manages to score here. He seemed to be an improving horse, and his gameness was without question, earlier in the prep season. That all went by the wayside when he wound up a bad fourth, looking like a tired horse, in the Florida Derby (GI). His trainer Bill Currin admitted that the cross-country trips got to him and the horse, so he took him back to Hollywood Park to regroup. The headstrong colt likes to break running, so Currin has spent the last month trying to get him to relax so he has something left for the finish of these longer races. Though it’s late in the game to be changing tactics, his workouts look like he’s taken to the change. Strangely enough, this Derby doesn’t have a ton of early speed, so Desormeaux will in all likelihood have him near the front when they pass the wire for the first time, and his hand is kind of forced as they break from post 17, one of two positions that have never produced a Derby winner (the other is 19). This colt is definitely battle-tested and will not give up easily, even if he’s not really bred to handle the 10 furlongs. I think his Kentucky Derby run will look a lot like his Florida Derby run:
sprinted clear, set pace to quarter pole, battled to mid stretch, weakened.
18 - Any Given Saturday (12/1)
He took a slight step backward when 3rd in the Wood Memorial last out. That will only serve to help the price. He has shown since his career debut that he is an immensely talented horse, and trainer Todd Pletcher certainly has him ready for his best effort. He has lost two of three this year, but one defeat was to Street Sense when that one just nosed him out on the wire. He ran a strong 2nd in a Grade 2 last fall at Churchill, so there is reason to believe that he likes the surface. The wide post is a concern, but Any Given Saturday is no stranger to being way off the rail. He is by Distorted Humor, who has already sired a Derby winner in Funny Cide. So you know the breeding is right. John Velazquez chooses stablemate Circular Quay instead of this guy, but Garret Gomez is no slouch. There is a lot to like, and he should be 12-1 or higher. Major player who may be able to overcome is bad post position if Pacino doesn't give him a pep talk right before the race.
19 - Dominican (20/1)
This horse may be coming into the race as one of the most blatantly ignored winners of the Toyota Blue Grass (Grade 1). While that race was an oddly run event, Dominican displayed huge strides at the end as he closed an intimidating gap on horses that had already gotten the jump on him, flying home his final furlong in 11 seconds flat. That makes this Darrin Miller trainee 2-for-2 this year and undefeated since being gelded following his 2-year-old campaign. His stock fell a bit when he was allotted the final selection at the post position draw, but an outside post in the Kentucky Derby is not reason to draw a line through a horse's name when you consider the long run into the first turn and the inevitable traffic jam that will be faced by every horse to his inside.
20 - Great Hunter (15/1)
Great Hunter was slated to be one of the Derby favorites before his 5th place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes. He has mild trouble that day, but his rider claimed he was done before the incident and would not have won. He is trying to win the Derby off of just two starts in six months, one of which was a win over a weak field in the Robert Lewis Stakes. He finished 3rd in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile over this track, but he crossed the wire 12+ lengths behind Street Sense. There’s no question that he fits with this bunch on class, but the light schedule and the strange final prep leave a lot of questions unanswered.
I will have my final picks Sat mornin', no sense telling you all now and driving down the odds.
Wednesday, May 2, 2007
NFL Draft Review: NFC West
Lincoln back again to start our Draft Review series, we will break down each team's draft division by division.
Arizona Cardinals
With the 5th pick in the first round Arizona grabed Levi Brown LT Penn State and on the Live Blog I wrote : The first "wow" of the draft. I like Brown, but he's not the 5th best player in this, or any, draft. If they really wanted a left tackle they should have traded up to get Thomas or down for Levi. REACH.
I still feel that way.
I wrote this about Levi in my OT rankings:
Brown is #2 on most boards, but I've flip flopped the normal 2-3, not because I don't like Brown (as you will soon see I do) but only because I have a bit of a hetero man crush on Staley. This large Nitny Lion was a four year starter who continuously played at a high level for some very good Joe Pa teams. Brown plays with a large base and uses his very long arms to engulf opposing rushers. Despite what his fourty time, 5.4, might lead you to believe, Brown is quick off the ball virtually never let a collegiate speed rusher beat him off the edge. Prototypical size, 6'5'', 320, and strong. In college he dominated by being much bigger and stronger than everybody else. He does need technical work, his hand placement is a problem and will cause him to get beat by vetern pass rushers at the next level. Brown's footwork can get whaupi-jawed from time to time, causing him to lose balance and one on one battles. Has the size, quickness and strength the play on the left side of the line in the pros. Brown could go as high as #10 to Houston (think they need a tackle?) and would be very nice value for any team in the mid to late first round.
He's a good player, with a chance to be really good, but it was not good value.
I really like most of the Cardinals' other picks though, Alan Branch has a chance to be an absolute monster! Here is what Krevor thought of Mr. Branch in his D-line rankings:
Alan Branch is a massive presence on the defensive line and he helped Michigan shut down opposing teams running games. After the college football season ended Branch was considered a top 5 pick. His stock has plummeted after concerns about him being out of shape and some people who weren’t impressed with his workouts. I have to disagree. I was very impressed by his workouts and his very fast 5.1 40-yard dash. Amazing for a 330 pound man. Although I have him at #4 he very well could be the best lineman in the draft. He clogs up running lanes and has the athleticism to pressure the QB. He may not rack up the best stats but he could have the greatest impact of any defensive player chosen in the draft by taking on double teams and ruining the running games of many teams.
Branch was a steal in the second round, Arizona was smart to trade up for him. They need to take some risks on guys with really high ceilings like Branch.
Buster Davis, the Florida State middle linebacker one, wasn't a bad pick with the 69th overall selection. He's a little small and slow but was very productive at a high level in college, plays with great instincts, and is very tough. Guys like that have a very nice track record. There is better than a 50/50 chance that he's their starting Mike linebacker next year.
In the 5th round Zona nabbed their 2nd Michigan Wolverine of the Draft when they selected wide receiver Steve Breaston. Breaston is a big play threat who can be another Bryant Johnson for them.
At the top of the 7th round the Cardinals made maybe the best pick of the entire draft, Ben Patrick TE Delaware who I thought was the #4 TE in the Draft and a Day 1 pick:
Big time receiving threat with really good hands and natural ball skills. Plays hard. Is very smart, started his college career at Duke, graduated early then transfered to Delaware and dominated on the lower level. A little short, 6'3'', and might not be able to add much to his frame. Still has room to improve as a blocker. Plays much smaller than he is. There was a lot of talk about him being a breakout star at the Combine, that didn't really happen. His 40 time was average, 4.75, and raised doubts over whether he is quite as athletic as some made him out to be. Has tons of skill. Third round pick with a chance to be a real good pro.
Teaming him with Leonard Pope a bigger, better blocking tight end will allow Patrick to play to his strengths as a fast pass catching tight end. He's the one 7th rounder that I feel safe in saying will start for his team this year.
San Francisco 49ers
San Fran had a thousand picks in this draft with their first one, 11th overall, they got P-Willie. Willis is a strong, fast, aggressive, smart linebacker who should move right into a starting spot. He's gonna be really good.
Frisco also traded back up into the back end of the 1st round to nab Joe Staley, they have up a lot for him, a #1 next year, but they got a heck of a player. Here's what I wrote about Staley in the OT rankings:
Could be the fastest tackle ever to enter in the draft, 4.8. Staley's physical abilities, and relative newness to the position, give him a ridiculously high ceiling. According to Bill Parcell's "Planet Theory" huge, athletic, dominate tackles (on both sides of the ball) are so rare that they are immensely valuable. Staley isn't all potential though, he plays with a great motor and good technique. Tremdously naturally strong, Staley still can add 15-20 pounds of muscle to his frame in his first year or two in the pros which will ameliorate scouts major consern, size. He will sometimes be beaten by bull rushers (but adding muscle and staying lower will correct the problem.) The 6'6'' 305lb Staley is by no means a small man, but adding the extra size and strength without compromising his greatest assest (speed/lateral quickness) will make Staley a standout for years to come. The left tackle position requires guys who can move well in space while occuping defensive ends and linebackers. Guys like Staley and Thomas who can be left one on one allow for tight ends and backs to take on other responsibilities (routes/blocking other defenders) which hugely helps an offensive. Staley would be perfect for the Denver Broncos who value smaller, mobile linemen. However they seem to have their sights aimed else where. Joe seems to be one of the prospects moving up teams boards the quickest in the days before the draft so pinpointing where he will go is hard. He is definately be the highest selected Central Michigan alumnus since the unfrozen caveman center. Staley will be a great pick for any team in the mid to late first round.
Half way thru the 3rd round the 9ers grabbed Jason Hill WR Washinton State, a guy a really liked in this draft. I had Hill rated as the 9th best WR in this very deep class and wrote:
Good route runner who gets open alot. Good hands. Very athletic. Decent size, 6'.5'', 204 but top notch speed, 4.32. Very productive as a sophomore and junior, but his numbers fell in his senior season. 18.3 ypc and 32 TD's for his career at WSU. Seemed to loose focus last year, playing for a contending pro team could change that. Not a special athlete. Could be a very nice third round pick.
I do think he was a very nice third round pick for Frisco. They also grabbed Darrell Jackson in a trade from Seattle, for one of their 92 fourth round picks. Last year only 2 wide receivers caught more than 10 passes, only 2!!!, Antonio Bryant and Arnaz Battle. The 9ers cut ties with Bryant, whose headaches have always out weighed his usefullness, and signed Ashley Lelie who, depsite having a girl's name, will give Alex Smith a receiver who's actually faster than his tight end to throw to. Now factor in acquiring Darrell Jackson and Jason Hill on Draft Day and suddenly there are offensive playmakers at the skill positions to go with Frank Gore and Vernon Davis.
The 1849ers ended their fantastic Day 1 by getting Bryant Young's eventual replacement at defensive end. Ray McDonald was a first round talent to slipped into the third because of injury conserns, he missed most of the 2005 season with two different knee injuries. I thought McyD wouldn't fall past the 2nd round, and he represents a very nice value pick as he will fit perfectly at defensive end in the 3-4.
San Fran spent Day 2 getting a couple guys who will add valuable depth and special teams ability, Jay Moore DE Nebraska and Dashon Goldson S Washington. Then the used their last couple picks on talented guys with some character conserns, Tarell Brown CB Texas and Thomas Clayton RB Kansas State. If those guys don't play or live up to their potential then oh well, they only wasted a couple late Day 2 picks.
St Louis Rams
With pick 13 StL chose Adam Carriker DE Nebraska, while JJ and I had slightly differening opinions on this pick in the Live Blog:
JJ: Not to be outdone by the Dolphins, the Rams take the giant white kid from Nebraska. I think this is a terrible pick, especially with some of the other available players here. Time will tell I suppose.
LH: I really like Carriker, I can't believe they didn't get Bulger's replacement though.
Krevor talked about the giant Nebraskan, 6'6'' 300, in his defensive line rankings:
Carriker is country strong and has excellent size. I do not think he is the greatest pass rusher in the world but his versatility will make him a good player in this league. He can either play end in a 4-3 or a 3-4. Some believe he could move inside in a 4-3 but I think that would not maximize his production. He will probably be someone who will get around 5 sacks a year and be very strong against the run. I think Anthony Spencer could turn out to be better then Carriker but he could be a very valuable piece of a defense. He is defiantly not the sexiest pick one could make in the draft but he has the potential to be an impact player in the NFL. Look for him to get strong interest from a 3-4 team in the middle of the first round.
Carriker is a nice player but I still think corner (Darrelle Revis was the very next pick) was more of a need than a defensive end who can't rush the passer and that Brady Quinn was the best value on the board... especially when you consider the Rams current backup QB.
In round 2 they did make a nice value pick, but maybe one that doesn't fill a huge need, in Brain Leonard RB/FB/TE from Rutgers. I wrote about Leonard in my running back rankings:
One of the most interesting players in this draft. Will be interesting to see what position(s)? he plays in the NFL, maybe just a hair to slow to be any every down RB, doesn't have prototypical size for a FB or TE, 6'1.5'', 225, 4.5. But he's just a football player. 45 TD's in 47 career games for the Scarlet Knights and really helped get the program off the ground. Took a back seat his senior year to potential first round pick Ray Rice but didn't complain. Team Captain. Great balance and natural instincts. Best hands of any back in the draft, 207 career receptions for 1,800 yards and 13 TDs. Best fullback in the draft since Mike Alstott, and could have a very similar career, maybe cross between Alstott and Chris Cooley in the right sytem. Great all around player with maybe the best intangibles in the draft. Doesn't do anything great, but everything well. Won't stretch the field verticallly in the NFL, not a big play threat but will get you first downs. Wants to be a RB. Would be an absolutely perfect fit for the Patriots late in round 1.
Still they spent a #2 pick on a back up running back, although I'm sure Steven Jackson will be happy that he won't have to get 436 touches next year.
The Rams finally addressed their glarring need at corner in the 3rd round by selecting Jonathan Wade from Tennessee, a very raw, risky player.
Day 2 was spent by the former Greatest Show on Turf drafting a whole bunch of guys who won't ever become good players. A marginal Day 1 was really messed up by Day 2, there were 10 guys who went undrafted better than any player the Rams selected.
St Louis would have been much better off if they got Darrelle Revis or Lawrence Timmons OLB Florida State (I really just wanted to show that pic) in round 1, Josh Wilson CB Maryland in round 2, Tony Hunt RB Penn State in round 3 and staying home on Day 2.
Seattle Seahawks
After trading their #1 for Deon Branch earlier this season, Seattle was forced to wait until pick number 55 overall for their first selection, Josh Wilson CB Maryland. I wrote about Wilson as a possible round 2 target for Dallas in my Cowboys Draft Preview:
Josh Wilson is a workout warrior (Maryland has a lot of those, don't they?) who had a very good year last year, but is under sized, 5'9''. He is however very strong for his size and blazingly fast, 4.35. Wilson doesn't shy away from contact but doesn't have very good hands, only one pick last year, still his ceiling could be as kind of the next Antoine Winfield.
Late in round 3 Seattle got Brandon Mebane DT Cal who ESPN Insider accurately sums up as:
A versatile, explosive, high-energy defensive tackle that made lots of big plays throughout his collegiate career. Unfortunately, he does not possess the size, strength or athleticism to translate that production to the NFL game. In fact, Mebane will likely max out as a situational one-gap defensive tackle that contributes in a rotation. He is likely to come off the board late on Day 1.
Seattle coaches will be very busy in rookie mini camps this summer as Mebane, Baraka Atkins DE The U, and Masfield Wrotto OG Georgia Tech (and member of the 2007 Draft All-Name Team) all come with the baggage of not processing or maintianing information well and being very raw in their respective techniques. Note: all those guys were first day picks for the 'Hawks.
In round 5 and 6 Seattle nabbed two former Auburn Tigers, OLB Will Herring (161 overall) and WR Courtney Taylor (197 overall.) Taylor was a steal he's a big time player who's always banged up but Herring didn't deserve to be drafted at all.
I did like their 7th rounder, Steve Vallos OT Wake Forest, though! He'll prolly never amount to anything, but he plays hard and could make a decent transition to the interior of the line... Seattle can't go wrong getting someone to play guard for them. They really needed to trade up into the top of the 2nd round to get Justin Blalock OG Texas, Steve Hutchinson leaving hurt them so much and Blalock is the one guy in this draft capable of replacing most of what Hutch game them.
Arizona Cardinals
With the 5th pick in the first round Arizona grabed Levi Brown LT Penn State and on the Live Blog I wrote : The first "wow" of the draft. I like Brown, but he's not the 5th best player in this, or any, draft. If they really wanted a left tackle they should have traded up to get Thomas or down for Levi. REACH.
I still feel that way.
I wrote this about Levi in my OT rankings:
Brown is #2 on most boards, but I've flip flopped the normal 2-3, not because I don't like Brown (as you will soon see I do) but only because I have a bit of a hetero man crush on Staley. This large Nitny Lion was a four year starter who continuously played at a high level for some very good Joe Pa teams. Brown plays with a large base and uses his very long arms to engulf opposing rushers. Despite what his fourty time, 5.4, might lead you to believe, Brown is quick off the ball virtually never let a collegiate speed rusher beat him off the edge. Prototypical size, 6'5'', 320, and strong. In college he dominated by being much bigger and stronger than everybody else. He does need technical work, his hand placement is a problem and will cause him to get beat by vetern pass rushers at the next level. Brown's footwork can get whaupi-jawed from time to time, causing him to lose balance and one on one battles. Has the size, quickness and strength the play on the left side of the line in the pros. Brown could go as high as #10 to Houston (think they need a tackle?) and would be very nice value for any team in the mid to late first round.
He's a good player, with a chance to be really good, but it was not good value.
I really like most of the Cardinals' other picks though, Alan Branch has a chance to be an absolute monster! Here is what Krevor thought of Mr. Branch in his D-line rankings:
Alan Branch is a massive presence on the defensive line and he helped Michigan shut down opposing teams running games. After the college football season ended Branch was considered a top 5 pick. His stock has plummeted after concerns about him being out of shape and some people who weren’t impressed with his workouts. I have to disagree. I was very impressed by his workouts and his very fast 5.1 40-yard dash. Amazing for a 330 pound man. Although I have him at #4 he very well could be the best lineman in the draft. He clogs up running lanes and has the athleticism to pressure the QB. He may not rack up the best stats but he could have the greatest impact of any defensive player chosen in the draft by taking on double teams and ruining the running games of many teams.
Branch was a steal in the second round, Arizona was smart to trade up for him. They need to take some risks on guys with really high ceilings like Branch.
Buster Davis, the Florida State middle linebacker one, wasn't a bad pick with the 69th overall selection. He's a little small and slow but was very productive at a high level in college, plays with great instincts, and is very tough. Guys like that have a very nice track record. There is better than a 50/50 chance that he's their starting Mike linebacker next year.
In the 5th round Zona nabbed their 2nd Michigan Wolverine of the Draft when they selected wide receiver Steve Breaston. Breaston is a big play threat who can be another Bryant Johnson for them.
At the top of the 7th round the Cardinals made maybe the best pick of the entire draft, Ben Patrick TE Delaware who I thought was the #4 TE in the Draft and a Day 1 pick:
Big time receiving threat with really good hands and natural ball skills. Plays hard. Is very smart, started his college career at Duke, graduated early then transfered to Delaware and dominated on the lower level. A little short, 6'3'', and might not be able to add much to his frame. Still has room to improve as a blocker. Plays much smaller than he is. There was a lot of talk about him being a breakout star at the Combine, that didn't really happen. His 40 time was average, 4.75, and raised doubts over whether he is quite as athletic as some made him out to be. Has tons of skill. Third round pick with a chance to be a real good pro.
Teaming him with Leonard Pope a bigger, better blocking tight end will allow Patrick to play to his strengths as a fast pass catching tight end. He's the one 7th rounder that I feel safe in saying will start for his team this year.
San Francisco 49ers
San Fran had a thousand picks in this draft with their first one, 11th overall, they got P-Willie. Willis is a strong, fast, aggressive, smart linebacker who should move right into a starting spot. He's gonna be really good.
Frisco also traded back up into the back end of the 1st round to nab Joe Staley, they have up a lot for him, a #1 next year, but they got a heck of a player. Here's what I wrote about Staley in the OT rankings:
Could be the fastest tackle ever to enter in the draft, 4.8. Staley's physical abilities, and relative newness to the position, give him a ridiculously high ceiling. According to Bill Parcell's "Planet Theory" huge, athletic, dominate tackles (on both sides of the ball) are so rare that they are immensely valuable. Staley isn't all potential though, he plays with a great motor and good technique. Tremdously naturally strong, Staley still can add 15-20 pounds of muscle to his frame in his first year or two in the pros which will ameliorate scouts major consern, size. He will sometimes be beaten by bull rushers (but adding muscle and staying lower will correct the problem.) The 6'6'' 305lb Staley is by no means a small man, but adding the extra size and strength without compromising his greatest assest (speed/lateral quickness) will make Staley a standout for years to come. The left tackle position requires guys who can move well in space while occuping defensive ends and linebackers. Guys like Staley and Thomas who can be left one on one allow for tight ends and backs to take on other responsibilities (routes/blocking other defenders) which hugely helps an offensive. Staley would be perfect for the Denver Broncos who value smaller, mobile linemen. However they seem to have their sights aimed else where. Joe seems to be one of the prospects moving up teams boards the quickest in the days before the draft so pinpointing where he will go is hard. He is definately be the highest selected Central Michigan alumnus since the unfrozen caveman center. Staley will be a great pick for any team in the mid to late first round.
Half way thru the 3rd round the 9ers grabbed Jason Hill WR Washinton State, a guy a really liked in this draft. I had Hill rated as the 9th best WR in this very deep class and wrote:
Good route runner who gets open alot. Good hands. Very athletic. Decent size, 6'.5'', 204 but top notch speed, 4.32. Very productive as a sophomore and junior, but his numbers fell in his senior season. 18.3 ypc and 32 TD's for his career at WSU. Seemed to loose focus last year, playing for a contending pro team could change that. Not a special athlete. Could be a very nice third round pick.
I do think he was a very nice third round pick for Frisco. They also grabbed Darrell Jackson in a trade from Seattle, for one of their 92 fourth round picks. Last year only 2 wide receivers caught more than 10 passes, only 2!!!, Antonio Bryant and Arnaz Battle. The 9ers cut ties with Bryant, whose headaches have always out weighed his usefullness, and signed Ashley Lelie who, depsite having a girl's name, will give Alex Smith a receiver who's actually faster than his tight end to throw to. Now factor in acquiring Darrell Jackson and Jason Hill on Draft Day and suddenly there are offensive playmakers at the skill positions to go with Frank Gore and Vernon Davis.
The 1849ers ended their fantastic Day 1 by getting Bryant Young's eventual replacement at defensive end. Ray McDonald was a first round talent to slipped into the third because of injury conserns, he missed most of the 2005 season with two different knee injuries. I thought McyD wouldn't fall past the 2nd round, and he represents a very nice value pick as he will fit perfectly at defensive end in the 3-4.
San Fran spent Day 2 getting a couple guys who will add valuable depth and special teams ability, Jay Moore DE Nebraska and Dashon Goldson S Washington. Then the used their last couple picks on talented guys with some character conserns, Tarell Brown CB Texas and Thomas Clayton RB Kansas State. If those guys don't play or live up to their potential then oh well, they only wasted a couple late Day 2 picks.
St Louis Rams
With pick 13 StL chose Adam Carriker DE Nebraska, while JJ and I had slightly differening opinions on this pick in the Live Blog:
JJ: Not to be outdone by the Dolphins, the Rams take the giant white kid from Nebraska. I think this is a terrible pick, especially with some of the other available players here. Time will tell I suppose.
LH: I really like Carriker, I can't believe they didn't get Bulger's replacement though.
Krevor talked about the giant Nebraskan, 6'6'' 300, in his defensive line rankings:
Carriker is country strong and has excellent size. I do not think he is the greatest pass rusher in the world but his versatility will make him a good player in this league. He can either play end in a 4-3 or a 3-4. Some believe he could move inside in a 4-3 but I think that would not maximize his production. He will probably be someone who will get around 5 sacks a year and be very strong against the run. I think Anthony Spencer could turn out to be better then Carriker but he could be a very valuable piece of a defense. He is defiantly not the sexiest pick one could make in the draft but he has the potential to be an impact player in the NFL. Look for him to get strong interest from a 3-4 team in the middle of the first round.
Carriker is a nice player but I still think corner (Darrelle Revis was the very next pick) was more of a need than a defensive end who can't rush the passer and that Brady Quinn was the best value on the board... especially when you consider the Rams current backup QB.
In round 2 they did make a nice value pick, but maybe one that doesn't fill a huge need, in Brain Leonard RB/FB/TE from Rutgers. I wrote about Leonard in my running back rankings:
One of the most interesting players in this draft. Will be interesting to see what position(s)? he plays in the NFL, maybe just a hair to slow to be any every down RB, doesn't have prototypical size for a FB or TE, 6'1.5'', 225, 4.5. But he's just a football player. 45 TD's in 47 career games for the Scarlet Knights and really helped get the program off the ground. Took a back seat his senior year to potential first round pick Ray Rice but didn't complain. Team Captain. Great balance and natural instincts. Best hands of any back in the draft, 207 career receptions for 1,800 yards and 13 TDs. Best fullback in the draft since Mike Alstott, and could have a very similar career, maybe cross between Alstott and Chris Cooley in the right sytem. Great all around player with maybe the best intangibles in the draft. Doesn't do anything great, but everything well. Won't stretch the field verticallly in the NFL, not a big play threat but will get you first downs. Wants to be a RB. Would be an absolutely perfect fit for the Patriots late in round 1.
Still they spent a #2 pick on a back up running back, although I'm sure Steven Jackson will be happy that he won't have to get 436 touches next year.
The Rams finally addressed their glarring need at corner in the 3rd round by selecting Jonathan Wade from Tennessee, a very raw, risky player.
Day 2 was spent by the former Greatest Show on Turf drafting a whole bunch of guys who won't ever become good players. A marginal Day 1 was really messed up by Day 2, there were 10 guys who went undrafted better than any player the Rams selected.
St Louis would have been much better off if they got Darrelle Revis or Lawrence Timmons OLB Florida State (I really just wanted to show that pic) in round 1, Josh Wilson CB Maryland in round 2, Tony Hunt RB Penn State in round 3 and staying home on Day 2.
Seattle Seahawks
After trading their #1 for Deon Branch earlier this season, Seattle was forced to wait until pick number 55 overall for their first selection, Josh Wilson CB Maryland. I wrote about Wilson as a possible round 2 target for Dallas in my Cowboys Draft Preview:
Josh Wilson is a workout warrior (Maryland has a lot of those, don't they?) who had a very good year last year, but is under sized, 5'9''. He is however very strong for his size and blazingly fast, 4.35. Wilson doesn't shy away from contact but doesn't have very good hands, only one pick last year, still his ceiling could be as kind of the next Antoine Winfield.
Late in round 3 Seattle got Brandon Mebane DT Cal who ESPN Insider accurately sums up as:
A versatile, explosive, high-energy defensive tackle that made lots of big plays throughout his collegiate career. Unfortunately, he does not possess the size, strength or athleticism to translate that production to the NFL game. In fact, Mebane will likely max out as a situational one-gap defensive tackle that contributes in a rotation. He is likely to come off the board late on Day 1.
Seattle coaches will be very busy in rookie mini camps this summer as Mebane, Baraka Atkins DE The U, and Masfield Wrotto OG Georgia Tech (and member of the 2007 Draft All-Name Team) all come with the baggage of not processing or maintianing information well and being very raw in their respective techniques. Note: all those guys were first day picks for the 'Hawks.
In round 5 and 6 Seattle nabbed two former Auburn Tigers, OLB Will Herring (161 overall) and WR Courtney Taylor (197 overall.) Taylor was a steal he's a big time player who's always banged up but Herring didn't deserve to be drafted at all.
I did like their 7th rounder, Steve Vallos OT Wake Forest, though! He'll prolly never amount to anything, but he plays hard and could make a decent transition to the interior of the line... Seattle can't go wrong getting someone to play guard for them. They really needed to trade up into the top of the 2nd round to get Justin Blalock OG Texas, Steve Hutchinson leaving hurt them so much and Blalock is the one guy in this draft capable of replacing most of what Hutch game them.
Tuesday, May 1, 2007
Mavs Game 5
Hey sports fans, Lincoln here. I'm so pumped after the Mavs fought off the Warriors in Game 5. I know we haven't covered the NBA playoffs as indepthly as we would have liked, or at all for that matter, because of the NFL Draft. But now we will shift our focus and be very roundballcentric, new word?
I will have more on this series with JJ very soon but here are a few quick impressions.
- Dirk finally played like the MVP. 30 points, 12 boards (4 offensive) but more than that it was the first time all series that he fought through double teams and took over the game. I honestly thought that the season was over after Baron "Jijad" Davis hit that crazy off balance three with 3:22 left in the fourth; but then Dirk nails a three, gets back on the defensive end and gets a huge block on Matt Barnes' attempted layup (which ESPN refuses to show on their replay of the game even though it was maybe the biggest play of the game) then back down on the offensive end he looks for his shot...its not there so he passes but then demands the ball right back and sinks another clutch three to bring the Mavs within a bucket, 2:05 left. He played GREAT, and saved his best for when they needed it the most.
- I really hate Golden State. I didn't always possess this rancor for the Warriors, but this series, man... I really hate Golden State. All their players, their all trash. I can't believe the Mavs might actually lose to them. Matt Barnes is a Euro-trash piece of shit, and yes I know he's from California. The guy has absolutely no basketball skill, all he does is try to start fights. He shots pretty well from downtown, but he kicks his legs out on his shot like an 8 year old girl who doesn't have the upper body strength to get the ball to the rim. I'm surprised he doesn't jump on his free throw attempts. All he does on offense is hang out on the perimeter waiting, if they actually pass him the ball and ask him to do anything with it he acts like it's made of lava. Steven Jackson is just a streetballer thug. It's not surprising that he's been thrown out of two games this series. These guys have no idea how to win or lose gracefully.
- Reason #2 why this Golden State team will never win a championship (#1 is that Don Nelson is their coach) -- Baron Davis. B-Diddy perfectly exemplified what's wrong with him as a player with 0:21 left in this game. Jason Richardson misses a three from the right baseline, Josh Howard grabs the defensive board with Dallas up 1 and Davis slaps for the ball, gets mostly arm and gets called for his 6th foul. It's an obvious-absolutely-have-to-foul situation, you're down a point with under 24 seconds left. But Baron flips out when he's called for the foul and starts arguing with the ref. He wasn't thinking about, or even seemingly aware of, the situation in the game he was just thinking about himself and what everyone else is doing to him. He wasn't thinking about his team, he was thinking about him being on the floor being able to rack up stats. He wasn't thinking about winning the game. He's weak.
- 15-0 run to end the game, and 31-15 to start it.
- Golden State hit 16 threes and still lost.
- I know I'm not covering any new ground here but in the Mavs play with the same intensity that they did tonight they will win the series. Assuming they also get back on transition D and get to the rim offensively.
- I might be covering new ground here, but after the game NBA Security looked into a skirmish that Warriors forward Jason Richardson had with a fan in the AAC. The Mavs, Channel 21 and TNT forwarded all pertinent video evidence to NBA Security. I wasn't there and nothing was shown on the local TV broadcast so I didn't see what happened, but Richardson could be in MAJOR trouble. Unless the fan(s)? punched him or his family first Richardson will be suspended. Very interesting story to watch as it develops...just remember you heard it here first!
I will have more on this series with JJ very soon but here are a few quick impressions.
- Dirk finally played like the MVP. 30 points, 12 boards (4 offensive) but more than that it was the first time all series that he fought through double teams and took over the game. I honestly thought that the season was over after Baron "Jijad" Davis hit that crazy off balance three with 3:22 left in the fourth; but then Dirk nails a three, gets back on the defensive end and gets a huge block on Matt Barnes' attempted layup (which ESPN refuses to show on their replay of the game even though it was maybe the biggest play of the game) then back down on the offensive end he looks for his shot...its not there so he passes but then demands the ball right back and sinks another clutch three to bring the Mavs within a bucket, 2:05 left. He played GREAT, and saved his best for when they needed it the most.
- I really hate Golden State. I didn't always possess this rancor for the Warriors, but this series, man... I really hate Golden State. All their players, their all trash. I can't believe the Mavs might actually lose to them. Matt Barnes is a Euro-trash piece of shit, and yes I know he's from California. The guy has absolutely no basketball skill, all he does is try to start fights. He shots pretty well from downtown, but he kicks his legs out on his shot like an 8 year old girl who doesn't have the upper body strength to get the ball to the rim. I'm surprised he doesn't jump on his free throw attempts. All he does on offense is hang out on the perimeter waiting, if they actually pass him the ball and ask him to do anything with it he acts like it's made of lava. Steven Jackson is just a streetballer thug. It's not surprising that he's been thrown out of two games this series. These guys have no idea how to win or lose gracefully.
- Reason #2 why this Golden State team will never win a championship (#1 is that Don Nelson is their coach) -- Baron Davis. B-Diddy perfectly exemplified what's wrong with him as a player with 0:21 left in this game. Jason Richardson misses a three from the right baseline, Josh Howard grabs the defensive board with Dallas up 1 and Davis slaps for the ball, gets mostly arm and gets called for his 6th foul. It's an obvious-absolutely-have-to-foul situation, you're down a point with under 24 seconds left. But Baron flips out when he's called for the foul and starts arguing with the ref. He wasn't thinking about, or even seemingly aware of, the situation in the game he was just thinking about himself and what everyone else is doing to him. He wasn't thinking about his team, he was thinking about him being on the floor being able to rack up stats. He wasn't thinking about winning the game. He's weak.
- 15-0 run to end the game, and 31-15 to start it.
- Golden State hit 16 threes and still lost.
- I know I'm not covering any new ground here but in the Mavs play with the same intensity that they did tonight they will win the series. Assuming they also get back on transition D and get to the rim offensively.
- I might be covering new ground here, but after the game NBA Security looked into a skirmish that Warriors forward Jason Richardson had with a fan in the AAC. The Mavs, Channel 21 and TNT forwarded all pertinent video evidence to NBA Security. I wasn't there and nothing was shown on the local TV broadcast so I didn't see what happened, but Richardson could be in MAJOR trouble. Unless the fan(s)? punched him or his family first Richardson will be suspended. Very interesting story to watch as it develops...just remember you heard it here first!
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