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Friday, July 13, 2007

Ranger Trades

I've been thinking about this a lot recently. Don't look at their streak leading up to the All-Star break, even with that streak their over a dozen games out and still in last place in the division. This team needs to sell off the few useful parts it actually has. Sammy and Lofton should be giving away for a bag of magic beans. Millwood should be held onto until right at the deadline, hopefully he has a few good outings between now and then...he'll prolly be the best starter available at the deadline.

In this column I'll focus on realistic trades possibilities for Gagne, Aki, and Big Tex. Since you're not going to get Philip Hughes or Andrew Miller/Cameron Maybin, I recommend trading each guy separately and loading up on undervalued guys, pre arbitration eligible guys who can start next year, and really young guys with upside.

Eric Gagne to Cleveland for OF Shin-Soo Choo and C Maximiliano Ramirez

Besides setting the record for coolest names ever in a trade, I think this deal makes sense for both teams. Texas gets a guy who can step in a play right now, Choo, and a young guy with a lot of upside, Maximiliano, while Cle gets bullpen help they so desperately need.

Shin-Soo Choo may not be a name that is widely known to Ranger fans but he does some things very well; he gets on base, runs well, and catches the ball. The 24 year old Korean can play each of the outfield spots as well at DH and would step right into the Texas' lineup. Choo is a victim of a numbers crunch in Cleveland as Trot Nixon, David Delluci, Jason Michaels, Casey Blake, Grady Sizemore, and Travis Hafner are all blocking his way to the show. Due to injuries he got some playing time last year, and in about a month and a half of work he hit .295/.373/.473 for the Tribe. Those numbers look shockingly similar to his career minor league totals, .303/.393/.464. He may not get a lot better as he goes on, but he's good enough to play everyday in the majors right now.

Max Ramirez is the next in line of young Latin catchers. Ramirez was on the World Roster for the Futures Game, but did not play. He has a very strong arm and walks a lot...two things I like from my catchers. He does strike out a lot, but he has yet to post an OBP under .408 in any of his minor league stops. He's far away from being big league ready, but with Victor Martinez entrenched at the 2 spot I wouldn't be shocked if the Indians moved him for big league help, especially a legit closer like Gagne.

Cleveland was the other big competitor for Gagne's services this offseason, and it would stand to reason that after the great first half he's had they still have a lot of interest in him. The Indians should be the team that is the best fit for Gagne; in a pennant race, in that race with another team that needs bullpen help, stats oriented organization, lots of young talent. Trading a guy who can't get in their lineup and a wet behind the ears backstop isn't too much to ask. But since he's going to be a free agent after this year and is still an injury risk don't expect the moon in return. Choo would start for us and Ramirez would be one of our top 10 prospects, not a bad haul.

Akinora Otsuka and Joaquin Arias to the New York Mets for CF Lastings Milledge

Omar Minaya and the rest of the Metropolitans brass have been down on Lastings for awhile...seemingly upset that he hasn't had instant success in the majors and the dreaded but very vague "attitude problems" have been associated with him, as well. However, Omar can lose sight of the big picture and overpay for immediate gratification especially for a big name. While Aki isn't a big name...Gagne maybe if you could switch these two trades...but he fills a very important hole; late relief. Getting to Billy Wagner has been a bit of a problem this year, and if he goes down...not completely unforeseen for a 35+ year old player...NYM has no alternatives. Aki gives them a proven 8th inning guy who can also close. Two big reasons I think Aki is more likely for this deal;

1) He's still under club control for 2 more seasons, so whomever acquires him will have him for much longer than Gagne.

2) Gagne has control of where he goes, and because his contract includes financial incentives based on numbers of games finished it's unlikely that he'll agree to be traded somewhere where he wouldn't be the closer.

I'm not a fan of Arias, but I think Minaya might be. He covets toolsy Latin players and Arias is nothing if that. Reyes at short would block Joaquin, but the Mets are in desparte need of a second basemen...Reyes and Arias up the middle would cover insane amounts of ground.

Milledge is the type of young, very talented, pre-arb eligible, undervalued player Texas should target. As a 21 year old in the International League (a notorious pitchers league) he's hitting .277/.388/.440 for AAA Norfolk. For a young hitter, he has very developed abilities to go the other way and a keen batting eye...drawing walks in 14% of his plate appearances this year. Scouts have long raved about his tools, his Soriano like quick bat and footspeed made him a first round pick out of high school in '03.

Somewhat similar to Choo in Cleveland, Milledge faces the outfield logjam with Carlos Beltran, Shawn Green, Moises Alou with the big club and young studs Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez going to be ready for the bigs soon, Milledge seems like the odd man out even though he'll be a good player with a real shot of being a superstar. Milledge was called up the other day, but I really think it's for more of a showcase to other teams than anything.

I thought going into this year the the Mets would try and move Milledge for a starter, but with the way John Maine and Oliver Perez have steppped up that need seems to have been largely filled from within. They may still want a starter in return, so I'd see if Millwood or Padilla or Volquez have any appeal to them. Bottom line is that there is a deal to be made here, the Mets are willing to part with Milledge and getting a top-notch set up man who can close who and will still be yours for 2 years after this AND a young athletic uber toolsy minor leaguer is a fair price.

Mark Teixeira to Atlanta for LHP Matt Harrison, SS Chase Fontaine, and RHP Jamie Richmond

The big one, you've all been waiting for...not what you were hoping for? Me neither...but I think it's about as good as it'g going to get. Atlanta is in a playoff race (shock!) and they have a big need for a power hitting first baseman. Not making the playoffs last year could give GM John Schurholtz the extra encentive to get a big deal done, even if it means parting with a guy like Matt Harrison.

I was a big proponent of trading Tex to the Dodgers for Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp/James Loney but that deal would have to have been made a month ago because with they way Loney's been playing in the bigs they don't need a first baseman anymore. Detroit has a big need, but beyond Andrew Miller and Maybin there's not much in that organization that interests me and those two guys are pretty much untouchable. Yanks aren't giving up Hughes, BoSox won't part with Buchholtz. If I'm JD I'm still on the phone with all those teams trying to get a deal done, but if none of those teams budge then I call Atlanta back and accept this offer...which isn't bad at all for a guy not in your long term plans.

I know most people would want any trade with Atlanta to bring Salty back to be our catcher. While I like Salty as much as the next guy, I think we wouldn't be able to get much else back if we got him. I start with Salty and Harrison, but I'm not sure if they...or any team...is going to trade their two top prospects. I'd rather get Harrison and two other decent prospects instead of Salty and a bag of beans.

Harrison is one of the best pitching prospects around that no one talks about. Drafted in the third round in 2003 out of a North Carolina High School Harrison has shown an amazingly advanced feel for pitching...I'm sure being in the Braves system doesn't hurt. A six-foot-five lefty with a rare combination of power stuff and plus command. His fastball sits comfortably in the low 90s and has touched 95; his curve and change up are both plus offerings. But, as good as Harrison's stuff is--and it's excellent--he doesn't miss a lot of bats. At times, he can be guilty of throwing too many strikes and giving opposing batters too many hittable pitches, as opposed to working with the count. However, learning how to set up hitters better and when to throw a curve outside the zone can come with age. Harrison is currently in AA Mississippi for the Braves where he's thrown 107 groundball outs to 73 flys. He may never be an ace...well not a true ace, the Rangers ace, yes!...but he should be a strong #2 starter and still has a lot of potential.

The Braves got Chase Fontaine in the second round last season in the June draft where he promtly hit .296/.411/.412 at Rookie-level Danville. A very good hitter who draws walks in bunches; fundamentally sound both at the plate and in the field; your basic baseball rat who loves playing and takes well to coaching. His real first name is Robert, which is nowhere near as cool as being called Chase. But his combination of plate discipline and coachability make him a legit prospect. Even though he's far away, he should move up quick.

Jamie Richmond is another young arm in the Braves organization that seems to have a shot at being a good big leaguer. Richmond sort of reminds me of a younger Harrison, his strikeout rates are good but not great but he has phenomonal control; walking 6 batters in 78.1 pro innings. Another thing that is very appealing about Richmond is that he has yet to surrender a long ball. As a professional, no one has hit a home run off of Jamie Richmond. If a pitcher throws strikes and keeps the ball in the park he'll give his team a chance to win, Richmond does both of those things as well as any 20 year old in baseball.

If trading these three guys and net the Rangers two new starters who will be under club control for 4-5 years, as well as 4 new guys to add to their annunal Top 10 Prospect Rankings next year I'll consider it a success.

Adding Choo and Milledge to the starting lineup with Max Ramirez, Matt Harrison, Chase Fontaine, and Jamie Richmond to the minor leagues probably wouldn't make Ranger fans see the light at the end of the tunnel...but at least we'd know we were pointed in the right direction, something I have no faith in currently.

Of course if Joe Savery RHP Rice, Ric Porcello RHP HS, Brett Cecil LHP Maryland, Wes Roemer RHP CSF, Corey Brown OF OSU, Tony Thomas Jr 2B FSU, Matt Harvey RHP HS, and Kyle Russell OF UT were actually drafted by the Rangers, our minor system would be one of the top 5 in the league.

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