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Just got done reading Newberg's write up about the Borbon signing one thing stuck out at me. Jamey obviously took a shot at those who think the Rangers should have ponied up and drafted Ric Porcello in last June's amateur draft: "If no 2007 option is used on Borbon, which is the likely outcome, he will therefore have options in 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011, and will need to be in the big leagues for good in 2012. Shouldn't be prohibitive. Borbon will turn 26 during spring training 2012. Stated another way: giving a big league contract to a 21-year-old college position player is dramatically different from giving a big league contract to an 18-year-old high school pitcher. If Borbon still needs farm time when he's 26, he won't be worth protecting any longer anyway." Completely disregarding the fact that Borbon isn't worth protecting now, I wanted to take a look at the idea that a high school pitcher won't be ready in 5 years. This is really simple to answer: Yes! A high school pitcher CAN be ready to contribute meaningful innings to a contenting club when he's 23. Fancisco Liriano at 22 was the best pitcher in the AL last year, Philip Hughes is 21 now and almost no-hit the Rangers, Justin Verlander was 23 last season and won 17 games for the pennant winning Tigers, Matt Cain is 22 and not the best young pitcher on his team, Tim Lincecum is 23, Joel Zumaya was one of the most dominate pitchers in baseball last year at 21...if he'd just stay away from Guitar Hero. Cole Hamels and Scott Kazmir are just now 23 and have been good big league pitchers for a couple years. King Felix dominated the league when he was 19. Eric Hurley is just 21...anyone not think he will be able to get big league hitters out in 2 years? Danks is 22 and is the WhiteSox 5 starter. Of course there are thousands of other youngsters who can't whip the horsehide at that level, those guys are the exception...not the rule. But to say that a 22/23 year old pitcher can't help you or that putting him in the big leagues will hinder his development, is erroneous! Erroneous on both counts! I'm a big fan of Earl Weaver's dictum, the best place for a young pitcher is in long relief. Even if Porcello or Beavan or any other pitcher might not be ready to take the ball every fifth day and throw 200+ innings when they're 22/23 they can still help you in some capacity...if they're good enough. That's what it comes down to, talent! Porcello has it in droves, Borbon...eh, not so much. For Borbon to be a legit center fielder/leadoff hitter he's going to have to LEARN plate discipline. Not many people can do that. Jose Reyes appears to have, but name me 10 others. It's very, very rare for a player to completely change his philosophy in the box. Much rarer than a guy as talented as Porcello making it. Joe Sheehan once said, "I pretty much believe that you can throw all pitchers into a bin until they're 21 years old or in Triple-A. (If a pitcher is at Triple-A at 20, that's a warning sign as well.) It's not a performance analysis thing, because even great numbers from teenagers aren't going to sway me. It's just a concession to what we know about physics and physiology, and how the two intersect at the corner of Jobe and Andrews." I call BS! Mr Sheehan, whom I greatly respect...although less after reading that, is one of the head honchos at BaseballProspectus a site that works for analytical understanding of the game and tries to dispel old-timey notions that have no empirical evidentiary support. Sheehan is taking the easy way out. Rather than looking to WHY some guys fail and some succeed, WHY some guys get injured and some stay healthy. He just looks at the attrition rate, and sullen by his own previous failures decides to quit. Most people, fans, players, managers, scouts, scouting directors, general managers look at the wrong things when trying to forecast the future of a young player. This axiom is even more true in hurlers than in position players. They look for: Velocity - how hard a guy throws his fastball. I had an associate scout for the Rangers tell me that he was only supposed to call his bosses about a high school pitcher if the kid threw 90 mph or harder. Nothing else....just velocity. Size - I had a scout for the Astros tell me that a pitchers frame was more important to him than anything...really odd from a team who's best pitcher is extremely generously listed at 6' 185....and who buy the way dominated the NL at age 23. Stuff - which is very connected with #1, but includes movement of breaking balls. What they should look for: Mechanics - whole books have been written on this subject, so trying to fit in everything in a quick two sentence blurb is futile, but the idea of pitching mechanics is to as efficiently as possible is impart as much forward kinetic energy to the ball from the body of the pitcher. Command - very intertwined with mechanics, if you throw the ball the same way it will land in the same spot. Almost universally guys with good command have good mechanics and guys with good mechanics have good command. Command speaks to the repeatability of the throwing motion. Depth of Repertoire - If you throw 93 not many 16/17 year olds are going to be able to make contact...but pros can. It doesn't matter how hard you throw, really good hitters will hit it hard if that's all you can throw. Being able to throw the ball on both sides of plate, consistently (command) and having multiple pitches that you can throw for strikes at any time in the count and offer the hitter different spin and speed to focus on (depth of repertoire) are the keys to success against the best hitters in the world. Here's Rick's scouting report (scroll down to #27.) He throws 4 pitches and has great mechanics...notice the consistency of his delivery and how he is in perfect fielding position after he lets go of the ball...he's not falling off to one side or off balance because all the energy he created in his delivery is now in the ball and not still trapped inside his body pushing him towards first base or having to be absorbed by the muscles/tendons in his arm. Add to the fact that he throws hard and is big and has great stuff...he's big time. Baseball is flush with more cash than ever before. Free agents are signing 9 figure deals left and right, as such the value of high ceiling/elite level pre-arbitration talent, especially pitching has never been higher...It will cost more to sign a replacement in the free agent market. Would you rather have 4 Rick Porcellos and money left over or 1 Vincente Padilla? Young pitchers are inherently risky, but when you have one that stands a relatively good chance of being something really special you can't let that opportunity slip through your fingers...the Rangers did TWICE!