This years QB crop is a very underrated one, everyone talks about the top two guys (Russell and Quinn) but beyond those two gunslingers lies a deep group with a lot of talent that can be had after round 1.
- Brady Quinn - Notre Dame
Most people seem to have Russell on top of their boards, but to me that has more to do with the fact that they think the Raiders are leaning that way (although trying to figure out what Al Davis is thinking is an exercise in futility) and not because they think Russell is a better player. Quinn has ideal size, 6'4'' 230, a strong arm with a good quick release. He makes good quick decisions, although he is a bit slow looking at his 3rd and 4th option. His time with Charlie Weis I don't think can be over emphasized, he's been coached as a NFL QB for the last two seasons. Excellent on play action. He's a four year starter at Notre Dame which means that he's played in more big games than any other QB in the draft, because every game at Notre Dame is a big game. Detractors point to his teams record in "big games" but Quinn knows how to handle the stoplight. His Fightin Irish squad had no business being on the field with Russell's LSU Tigers in the bowl game his senior year the only reason they were was because Notre Dame is a big draw and will get matched up in big bowl games, even if their opponent is superior. He threw a pick only once per 62.3 pass attempts his last two seasons while completing over 63% of his passes. Quinn is the best QB prospect to come into the draft since Carson Palmer and could possibly go number one, although it seems unlikely, but Detriot at 2 and Cleveland at 3 would both be making huge mistakes to pass on this franchise signal caller who should come of the board no later than Miami at pick 9.
2. JaMarcus Russell - LSU
This Dante Culpepper clone possesses phenomenal size, 6'6'' 265, and arm strength. He guns the ball down field effortlessly with a decent release. Russell is far from a finished product though, his footwork needs tremendous improvement and could possibly keep him from being a reliable player in the league, he is still very raw and would need to sit at least one year. Tons of potential and upside that people fall in love with. He only started 29 games in college, Quinn 46. Despite having maybe the strongest football arm on the planet Earth, Russell still shows good touch on short routes and can drop the ball in between defenders down the field. Russell is a good athlete for his size, but is definitely not a scrambler -- Quinn actually ran a faster 40 time (4.73 to 4.83). Russell threw picks once every 38.4 attempts his last two year seasons, 42/attempt his junior season. While completing 64% of his passes, and nearly 68% his junior year. He may have the highest upside of any player in the entire draft, but he's very far away from it right now and there is a chance (not a huge one but it is there) that he will never live up to his ability. Russell could be the number 1 overall pick and shouldn't last longer on draft day than when the Browns select at 3.
3. Trent Edwards - Stanford
Edwards is somewhat of a wild card in this draft. He has major injury concerns. The former Cardinal QB was a top recruit out of high school and started four years despite missing action in three of his seasons. Edwards is very similar to Brady Quinn physically, 6'4'' 230 and 4.7 40 yard dash. He has a good arm and excellent touch. Edwards' teams were often over matched in the Pac 10, he's an excellent natural passer. He had to pass a lot, coming from behind and did try to force the ball too often as his interception rate of once per 32.6 attempts would attest, he did complete over 61% of his passes. Everyone raves about his work ethic, Edwards has everything you need to succeed at the NFL level... if he can stay healthy. Edwards could be the first pick of the second round if Oakland picks Charles Johnson first and shouldn't last past the middle of the round.
4. Troy Smith - THE Ohio State University
The Heisman Trophy winner has seen his draft stock really drop since the collapse in the National Championship Game. If OSU had won the BCS and he was 4 inches taller he would be a top 10 pick, which is why I believe Smith has fallen too far and will provide whichever smart team selects him with very good value. Is only 6 foot tall but has an NFL arm and excellent quickness, and great accuracy especially on the run. He does struggle to see over defenders in his face, ask the Florida Gators, but the NFL has seen smaller QB's succeed in the past (Drew Brees?) Smith is a good decision maker, one pick per 54.8 attempts with 64% completions. And was a dominate, game changing player in college. There are some minor character concerns but they didn't seem to keep him from being the best player in college or leading his team to victory after victory. Smith has the best chance of anyone in the draft to be selected after round 2 and turn into a star.
5. Kevin Kolb - Houston
Kolb comes from a very passer friendly system but has the size, 6'3'' 218, arm strength, accuracy, experience, athleticism, and intelligence to succeed in the NFL. He put up good numbers against weak competition playing in C-USA but was one of the most prolific passers in NCAA history. He struggles some with his accuracy on deep passes but still passed for 3,800 yards his senoir season. 44.8 picks per attempt with nearly 64.5% completions over his last 2 years. The system would not have been as good without him. Will need to adjust to taking the ball from under center, played nearly excluively out of the shotgun in college, but several QB's have made that transition in recent years (Leftwhich, Vince Young.) Kolb will probably only be a mid round pick and is in no way a sure thing, but he has a chance to develop into a good player.
6. Drew Stanton - Michigan State
I've seen Stanton as high as the #3 QB on a lot of boards, but I really don't think he's that good. He will wow you in shorts throwing passes to uncovered recievers as he has a very good arm, good size, 6'3'' 225, speed 4.75 and athleticism. Despite the physical tools, Stanton wasn't a very good college player and I think it will be reach to think that he will be a good player in the pros. He threw the ball to the wrong colored jersey once every 28 time he attempted a pass despite hitting his guys 63% of the time, although his completion percentage dropped from 66.7% his junior year to 61% his senior year -- not a good sign. There remains a chance that he could be a good player. Some team will fall in love with his workouts or get charmed by his agent, Drew Rosenhaus, and take him far too early. He could be a late 2nd round pick but should be nothing more than a late round flyer.
7. John Beck - BYU
Beck profiles as a nice backup QB. He doesn't possess a very strong arm, but has accuracy and timing to spare. Hard worker, clutch player with top intangibles. Old enough to be Amobi Okoye's dad, as he spent 2 years doing mission work in Portugal before enrolling at BYU. Good leader and very smart. Posted great numbers, especially in his senior season, but BYU has a very pass happy offense that Beck orchistrated to perfection. Should be a Day 2 pick who can have a career has a back up ... I mean Chris Winkie is still in the league, right?
8. Jared Zabransky - Boise State
One of my all-time favorite college players. Zabransky always played with his hair on fire, making big plays and some big mistakes. He doesn't have great size, 6'1'' 205, or elite arm strength but if you need a big play made, Z's your guy! Z has big time athleticism, 4.57 40, and can make plays in the open field. Jared Zabransky once challenged Lance Armstrong to a "who has more balls contest." Zabransky won, by 5 and that is how he got his uniform number. He reminds me a lot of Tony Romo, only faster. Good chance he won't make it in the league but I'll be rooting for the Cowboys to take him with a 6th or 7th round pick.
9. Chris Leak - Florida
Very well known college player whose lack of size, 5'11, 209, and lack of top end arm strength will limit his ability to be a big time NFL player. Didn't really develop as a passer until Urban Meyer took over last season. Misses a few too many open recievers. Good athlete but didn't run that much as a QB at Florida, worked alot out of the shotgun. Will be a late round pick, or possibly undrafted.
10. Jordan Palmer - UTEP
Good size, 6'5'' 230, and has a strong arm. Put up decent numbers playing against weak competition. Throws way too many picks, one per 26 attempts. Someone will see his frame, arm, and pedigree and take a chance on him thinking they can coach the mistakes out of him -- and maybe they can. Not very mobile and has a history of injuries. Could be a late third round pick, but definately wouldn't if his last name was different (although if it was Manning he would be the #1 pick) but should be a 4-5 round pick.
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