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Thursday, April 12, 2007

Lincoln and Brian Fantasy Minor League Draft Results

Lincoln:
1. Phillip Hughes RHP - Yankees
I chose Hughes with the top pick in our draft, choosing the 21 year old righthander, over my #2 choice Lincecum. Hughes was absolutely dominate at the AA level last year as one of the youngest players in the league. His 138/32 K to BB numbers are outstanding, and he only allowed 5 long balls in 116.1 innings of work. He has battled some elbow tendinitis [haven't we all?] but being a Yankee means the big league club is in no rush to push him threw the minors...even though he may be their best pitcher right now. While Hughes may not have the highest upside of any prospect in the game, I felt he meshed upside certainty more so than any player (as much certainty as you can get from a 21 year old pitcher.) I expect Hughes to be a 7-8 K/9 guy, very good control who keeps the ball on the ground with a sub 4 ERA and will rack up tons of wins pitching behind the Yankee lineup for a long time.

2. Clayton Kershaw LHP - Dodgers
I nabbed this Highland Park product with the last pick in the second round, a major steal considering he's the top lefthanded pitching prospect in baseball (or second if you love Andrew Miller.) He's still very young, 19, but the 7th overall pick in the 06 draft was phenomenal in his sojourn in Rookie ball. He struck out over a third of the batters he faced while only walking 5 and surrendering long balls to none. His 1.95 ERA is astonishing considering the fact that his BABIP .357 which hints at bad defense behind him. If that high average of balls in play was accompanied by a high home run rate, one might worry about a young pitcher (even one with such good K/BB numbers), but Kershaw ameliorates these concerns. High K rates, great control, ability to keep the ball on the ground and in the park, performing well in competition at a young age, good size, left handed, great scouting reports on his mechanics and stuff...Kershaw is good at pitching baseballs.

3. Ryan Braun 3B - Brewers
I was choosing between Braun and Felix Pie when I was on the clock at the start of the 3rd round, I ultimately went with the future Brew Crew third baseman (who went to the U) because I thought I'd have a chance at Pie in the next round and there was no way the Brauny Man would last that long. The 23 year old hot corner stud has been on the prospect screen for a long time. After hitting .451 with a .675 OBP as a senior at Granada Hills High School, Braun was voted the National Freshman of the Year by Baseball America in 2003. After being selected 5th overall in the 05 draft Braun hit .355/.396/.645 in low A and .303/.367/.589 in AA. Scouts rave about his tools even more than performance analysers are impressed by his production. Braun possesses a cannon arm, that is errant from time to time, and outstanding speed, 4.2 seconds to first base as a right handed hitter. Braun could be hitting .290 with 35 homers and 30 steals for Milwaukee teams, that might be fighting for pennants, for years to come.

4. Alexi Casilla SS - Twins
My ultimate sleeper as the last pick in the 4 round of this 13 team draft. I chose the little known Casilla after Felix Pie and Daric Barton were chosen just prior to my pick. This diminutive Dominican, he's listed at 5'9'' 160lbs, is no crappy consolation prize. After coming over from the Angels in a 2005 deal for reliever JC Romero, Casilla hit .331 in single A. He showed excellent bat control, 36 K's in 360 AB's, and plus plus speed, 31 thefts in 37 tries. In AA Casilla again hit .300 and posted nearly identical strikeout, walk, and steal number (18, 20, 19.) His good eye and excellent glove will make Casilla a very valuable pro, but his high batting average and tons of steals will make him valuable as a fantasy player too. This Raffy Furcal/ Luis Castillo hybrid player is capable of hitting .320 and swiping 50 bags and will replace Castillo after his contract expires at the end of the season.

Brian:
1. Tim Lincecum RHP - Giants
I was extremely happy when this young fireballer fell to me at #5. He was tied for #1 on my board with Angles SS Brandon Wood. Lincecum has been called a right handed Sandy Kofax which is kind of a crazy comparison but it sure does make me feel good about this guy. He has a fastball in the 93-97 MPH range which has been clocked as high as 101 MPH. He was selected with the 10th overall pick in the 2006 draft and the only reason he went that low is because many scouts were concerned about his unorthodox delivery. He launches himself at hitters and it is with this leverage that he is able to get his fastball in the upper 90's. He pairs this pitch with an absolutely nasty curve ball that is almost unhittable and considered the best in the minors. This pitch combination makes Lincecum a strikeout master managing an amazing 14.9k per 9 innings. He could be a devastating closer or a true ace, either way he will be a great asset to my team. He has done nothing but dominate in the minors and will probably be called up to the majors sometime this year.

2. Adam "Not Pacman but still makes it rain" Jones OF - Mariners

I chose Adam Jones when the draft snaked back around to me. It might have been a bit high for him but Foxsports has him rated as the #15 prospect overall. OK I'll admit it, his name had something to do with it but he is a top prospect. He has all the tools to be an impact outfielder with good speed and above average defensive skills. He has a good bat although he has issues with his plate discipline early on in the minors. Jones has vastly improved his plate discipline and has cut down on his strikeouts. He has also shown hints of having a good power bat and could be a great player if he puts it all together. Jones began the 2007 season in double-A and he has torn it up so far. Look for him to be in the majors at some point this year.

3. Jeff Niemann RHP - Devil Rays
Niemann is a massive presence on the mound standing 6'9 and weighing in at a titanic 280. He has amazing stuff and the mental make up of a top of the rotation guy. A former #4 overall pick in the 2004 draft he has been slowed down by a series of arm injuries. Niemann finally seems to be healthy and if he keeps it that way he could be called up sometime this year. He has all the tools to be a true ace in this league and if he can stay healthy the sky is the limit. I figured that his potential was worth the risk.

4. Brandon Erbe RHP - Orioles
Well here is my official HOMER pick of the night. This Baltimore high school product was taken in the 3rd round of the 2005 draft and appears to be an absolute steal. The guy before me took Felix Pie who I had one spot higher on my board. So this pick was not as much of a homer pick as it would seem. Erbe has dominated in the minors and although he is very young (19 years old) the O's are cautiously optimistic about him. They should be with a fastball that goes between 92-97 MPH. The Orioles will take their time with him and he will probably not be in the majors for a few years. I feel like I got a steal in Erbe as he is ranked #27 overall by Baseball Prospectus.

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