Hope and Faith

With a tip of the cap to baseballprospectus.com here is my version of how the Texas Rangers can win the world series.

1) The AL West is a very winnable division.

You can't win the world series without making the playoffs, sounds simple. Once in the tournament anything can happen (see; Cardinals, St. Louis) The A's lost their best pitcher (Zito) and their new ace (Harden) is a major injury risk -- along with half of their team. Seattle doesn't have enough pitching or hitting. The Angels seem to be the biggest rivals for the Rangers. LA has major offensive holes in LF, 1B and DH and CF, SS, 3B are all borderline (and we don't know how the GMJ 'roids investigation will distract the team.) Vlad is really their only hitter they can count on. Their pitching, specifically starting pitching, is deep and talented, but I really don't see them making the playoffs if they only score 750 runs this year.

2) The Rangers are improved over last year.

Franky Cat and Lofton will soften the blow of losing GMJ and DeRo from last years team (not that those guys should be counted on for replicating their performances this year.) The biggest offensive improvements should come from Brad Wilkerson, Mark Teixeira, Ian Kinsler, and Hank "the Hawk" Blalock. Brad should be healthy and contribute the .260/.370/.480 season he had in Montreal (a HUGE improvement over the .222/.306/.422 season he posted last year in the Rangers uni.) Tex suffered through a freakish first half of the season when all of his home runs turned into doubles; post-all star break he was one of the best few hitters in the game. I fully expect Tex to have an MVP type season as the Rangers contend for a playoff spot all year long. Kinsler should improve on his rookie campaign, but even if he doesn't Texas will get solid production from the 2B slot. I believe that a large part of the season's success rests with Blalock. All Ranger fans know the troubles Hank had last year, no reason to bring up old wounds. The Hawk has spent tons of time this offseason with Wash and Rudy, fine tuning his game and getting back to the All-Star level that made him a fan favorite early in his career. We all know Hank is capable of being a productive middle of the order bat, and I believe that he will be that again this year. I'm a stat guy but scouting Blalock this offseason brings me more hope than his numbers. Blalock has gotten his balance back, he's gotten his confidence back, he's gotten his game back. A productive Hank (.275/.350/.500) would give protection to Tex as he knocks in Lofton, Cat, and MY. All this and I haven't even mentioned the possibilities for breakout from Nelson Cruz, Jason Botts, Gerald Laird, or Sammy.

The Rangers should be improved on the bump, too. Brandon McCarthy, Eric Gagne being added to the staff and full seasons from Robinson Tejeda, Rupe, Littleton, CJ Wilson, and Frank Fransico will make this staff the best the Rangers have ever had. The Rangers allowed 784 runs last year and a healthy Gagne and a McCarthy who can keep the ball down will decrease that amount by themselves enough to add a few games to the win colomn. (Side note: Millwood, Padilla, McCarthy, and Tejeda will all be under club control for another 4 years!!) If McCarthy has the type of breakout season many predict he will the Rangers will have a legit 1-2-3 punch in the playoffs, not to mention Aki and Gagne shutting down the 8th and 9th innings.

3) The Rangers deserve to get lucky one of these years.

The last two years Texas has fallen well short of its Pythagorean win projection. Every championship team has a few good bounces go their way during the course of the year. Squeaking out a few more one run wins this year could put Texas over the top in the division, and a healthy Gagne/Aki combo at the back of the pen should help the Rangers achieve that.

New manager Ron Washington has the whole club, as well as the entire fan base feeling like this could be the year. With a little hope and faith it will be.