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Monday, July 16, 2007

Crazy Athlete of the Week! (Kinda)

By Brian

This week the award for the craziest athlete will actually go to one who hasn't done anything truly crazy this week, however is involved in a situation so ironic its crazy.

Ron Artest was suspended for the first seven games of next season which may not surprise many of you. After all he was the instigator in the famous brawl at the Palace of Auburn Hills and pleaded no contest to domestic violence charges on March 5th. However this situation is very ironic due to the fact that Artest took a while to respond to the suspension because he was doing humanitarian work in Kenya. Artest joined other NBA players to interact with AIDS babies in African and distribute rice to those in need. And if you think this is a one time publicity stunt consider this, Artest has bought a house there so he can return and continue his charitable work every offseason. Could it be someone that we all prejudged has another side to him? Apparently he does have another side and it is worth noting.

Artest is often vilified for being a no good thug, which many people believe is all too common in the NBA. The NBA issued harsh suspensions for misconduct and implemented a dress code to try and improve its image. The NBA started doing this long before Roger Godell set out to clean up the NFL's image which has taken hits for many athletes being crazy which we have been tracking for several weeks.

Exposing athletes acting stupid is the reason for crazy athlete of the week. We think it is important and often funny to point out the insane behavior of certain athletes who go way too far. However there are two sides to every story. Artest has done a lot of good things and the negatives in his life have been overblown. The fight at Auburn Hills was a nasty event but really began due to a thug fan trying to start a fight. Billy Beane beat up an asshole fan at a minor league game when he was a player, which is why you don't try and fight professional athletes. Ty Cobb was suspended for a month because he went up into the stands and punched a guy in a wheel chair. These incidents had very different consequences for those involved.

The reason the NBA came down so harsh on these players is that the white owners, sponsors, and season ticket holders got upset over certain events and decided to crack down. It happened in the NBA first because of pure racism. The NBA is mostly black and players don't wear helmets like in football...you can still see them through headbands. You can clearly see the players and this individual recognition, of both who they are and their race, leads to more scrutiny. Domestic violence is obviously wrong and the suspension is probably justified but before we go and vilify a player like Artest we should see what else they are doing with their lives and look at ourselves and ask some questions. What have we done for those less fortunate lately? Would we be angry about a hockey player getting into a fight on the ice? Would we be mad about a baseball player throwing a ball at someones head, or charging the mound? And finally would we be as upset if Ron Artest was white? Would the NBA take such drastic measures if the players were mostly white?

Feel free to comment...

Sunday, July 15, 2007

No Astericks Necessary

On our trip thru the great state of Missouri, JJ and I rehashed an old argument; Baseball players of yesteryear are being removed from the record books by modern players who play more games, in smaller parks, with better equipment... JJ believes that there should be two record books, I do not. What actually got us started on this was not Ruth v Bonds, it was George Sisler v Ichiro on the all time single season hit record... yes we debate these things, we are true SportsBullies!

I planned on writing a column centering around the fact that due to the great baseball era we now live in, where so much information is out and freely accessible to everyone, we can use All-Time Translations of statistics from any single season or career and compare them. This reasoning also holds for the whole "steroids era" which contends that the numbers of current sluggers are inflated thus making it impossible to compare with the greats of the by gone eras.

I had this whole article planned out in my head, I was going to use BaseballProspectus.com's Davenport Translations to get a new leaderboard, a new record book...one sans astericks.

But Will Carroll and Clay Davenport beat me to it...

******

July 15, 2007
The Answer
No Asterisks Necessary
by Will Carroll and Clay Davenport

You're going to have to pick your poison here, old-timers. You can either hate Barry Bonds, or you can hate statheads, but when it comes to solving the "problem" of the all-time home run title, you can't have it both ways. Those that want to place an asterisk on Bonds' achievements have always focused on the question of whether or not he's been cheating, something that remains unproven in the legal if not literal sense. In that argument, you can never win, not until Bonds pumps out a positive steroid test, something that seems pretty unlikely at this late stage of his career. Instead, if you really want to make your point sans the Frickian asterisk, you're going to have to rely on that other thing that baseball purists hate: math.

Over and over, people always bring up that we can't compare Babe Ruth or Hank Aaron to Barry Bonds. To that, we say "nuts." Because we most certainly can. There's some question as to how physical skills might translate, but it's easy enough to translate statistics to adjust for park, league, and era. In fact, it's one of the bedrocks of Baseball Prospectus. Since before its founding, Clay has been making translations available. Translations of player performance aren't that complex on the surface and are easily read, just like a normal stat line. It's behind the scenes where it gets complex, and why Davenport Translations have never been seriously contested. Unlike attempts at the "One True Stat" like VORP, or Runs Created, or WARP, or Win Shares, all with their various degrees success or failure, translations seldom raise any significant argument among serious statheads, and no one has developed a competing system.

What goes into a translation? According to the BP Glossary, a single-season translation involves adjustments "made to account for the home park and for the offensive level of the league as a whole. Hitters have an adjustment for not having to face their own team's pitchers; pitchers have a similar adjustment for not having to face their own hitters. Hitters in the AL since 1973 have a disadvantage in these statistics, since the league average is artificially inflated by the use of the DH and no adjustment is made for that." This is of no concern, since Ruth and Aaron played before the DH era, and Bonds spent his career in the National League. (We know, we're not mentioning those few occasions that he DH'd in interleague play. The statheads are already riled up.)

To get to an all-time translation, you have to go a bit further. "Statistics that have been adjusted for all-time have all of the adjustments for a single season, plus two more. One adjustment normalizes the average fielding numbers over time. Historically, the fielding share of total defense has been diminishing with time—more walks, more strikeouts, and more home runs means less work for fielders. In the single-season adjustments, fielders from before WWII have a lot more value (to their teams) than fielders do today; the all-time adjustments have attempted to remove that temporal trend. The second adjustment is for league difficulty. League quality has generally increased with time. Each league has been rated for difficulty and compared to a trend line defined by the post-integration National League. In addition to the adjustments for season, an adjustment is made for league difficulty."

So once the heavy lifting is done, we're left with statistics that are on a level playing field. It's as if all the players that ever played the game did it at the same time in the same stadium against the same competition. Where is that stadium you ask? The most neutral stadium in the year used, 2000, happens to be Montreal's Stade Olympique, so in some small way, baseball in that fine city lives on. It's the ultimate simulation, calculated in a manner similar to the method economists use with 1973 dollars to calculate inflation. And what does this mean for those of you asteriskers? First, it means we can abandon the number "755" as some sort of ultimate achievement. That number's only good enough for ninth place on the Davenport Translation All-Time Home Run list—and it's Mike Schmidt that hits that number exactly in the translations.

Babe Ruth 1070
Hank Aaron 971
Barry Bonds 931
Mel Ott 861
Willie Mays 856
Lou Gehrig 792
Jimmie Foxx 765
Reggie Jackson 757
Mike Schmidt 755
Ted Williams 752

That makes for a pretty nice list. It passes the "looks right test," in that most of the all-time greats are here, with Ruth and Aaron atop it, and with Mays and Gehrig in historically significant positions. It removes Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire from the list while inserting Ted Williams. Mel Ott makes for a nice conversation-starter. Reggie Jackson and his connections to Curtis Wentzlaff aside, it acknowledges Barry Bonds on the list without giving him any sort of primacy. All in all, it's a good asterisk-free list that should appeal to all. Even Bonds' most ardent defenders can't argue that he's not being rewarded with a number of homers lost to cavernous AT&T Park and the winds of Candlestick—just not enough to put him above Ruth or Aaron. At least not yet; Bonds would need roughly 30 more home runs, most at home, to pass Aaron on the translated list.

If you're wondering about other major leagues, Sadaharu Oh is not your man. The level of play in the Japanese league is translateable too, but down, due to its level, which is somewhere between the Major Leagues and Triple-A. That leaves him with a rough estimate of 505 career translated homers for the purposes of this exercise.

Is there anyone else currently in the game who has a chance to edge onto the list? Let's contribute to the current lovefest for Ken Griffey Jr. Here's the current active list:

Barry Bonds 931
Ken Griffey Jr. 719
Sammy Sosa 684
Frank Thomas 628
Alex Rodriguez 576
Gary Sheffield 576
Manny Ramirez 565
Jim Thome 559
Carlos Delgado 501
Mike Piazza 469

Griffey is almost certain to edge onto the top ten all-time list, depending on how long the Indian summer of his career lasts. Going as high as sixth is quite possible, especially if we take for his own the career of his father, a player who kept value into his forties. Alex Rodriguez, to be sure, is noticeable on this list, coming up to almost 600 translated home runs at the same time that he's pushing the 500 mark in reality; at 32, Rodriguez should bash his way into the translated career top ten in the next two years and then will begin to creep up the list. It's notable that A-Rod leaving Yankee Stadium for his home games might actually hurt his chances at the translated career title. That's because park effects are a big part of translating performance, and help the numbers of those players who have to hit in pitcher's parks. Once again, this is a list that looks good. It should be no surprise to see any of these names, and it matches up well with what most fans would expect.

So if we've solved the 755 problem, what then of the 73 issue? The easy answer might be Alex Rodriguez, currently on pace for a translated 70. Bonds' 2001 translates to 72; all the math essentially cancels itself out for Bonds' 2001, and actually costs him one home run. I hear the asteriskers cheering. But who's in the translated 70 home run club? Here's that list:

Babe Ruth, 1927 75
Babe Ruth, 1920 74
Babe Ruth, 1921 73
Babe Ruth, 1924 73
Babe Ruth, 1928 73
Barry Bonds, 2001 72
Mark McGwire, 1998 72
Jimmie Foxx, 1932 70
Babe Ruth, 1923 70
Babe Ruth, 1926 70
Alex Rodriguez, 2007 70

Once again, we get a list that passes the "looks right" test. Ruth has seven—seven!—seasons of 70 or more, while Bonds and McGwire's so-called tainted seasons fall in the middle. Jimmie Foxx gets to be the guy we all shrug our shoulders on, a forgotten great to most fans, while Alex Rodriguez makes the list with his "on pace for" number this season. Rodriguez will have to keep up the same pace to stay on the list, but we added it here for entertainment purposes.
But there's more. There's one player with two seasons we've purposefully left off the list of the Seventies Club. That one player is one that might surprise you, not for having two of the great slugging seasons of all time, but for having the single greatest slugging season of all time. That's right, it's not Ruth at the top of the list. The translated 70 home run club has another member, its king:

Lou Gehrig, 1927 76
Lou Gehrig, 1934 71

There's no asterisks flitting around Gehrig's career, but that amazing 1927 season is pretty
surprising and caused me (Will) to ask me (Clay) to check the math. Remember, Ruth hit 60 real home runs to Gehrig's real 47. Dutiful double-checking confirms that while Ruth had a 60-47 edge on Gehrig in real life, Gehrig had an 18-8 lead in triples, and a 52-29 lead in doubles, and when you translate from before World War II to the modern era, a lot of doubles and triples get turned into home runs, enough for the Iron Horse to pass the Babe in this case. Gehrig got those hits because he had power, not speed, and in today's game that power would translate over the fence.

So, there you have it, the problem is solved. We've wiped Barry Bonds off the top of both the all-time and single-season home run lists, restoring balance to the universe and aligning the stars in a neutral fashion. Any taint of the steroid era is shifted down (as many argue it should be), although it's through the context of the era rather than any unproven allegations and guesses over what PEDs do to player performance. Perhaps that's just as well. Performance-enhancing drugs may have been in the game of baseball and its Hall of Fame since the Age of Spalding, from Pud Galvin's elixir of bull testicles—a primitive testosterone that may have led to his death—on down to Willie Mays, Henry Aaron, and Mike Schmidt's use of stimulants, and who wants to get into that? Instead, it's time to take the translations into account, and play the game on the most even of fields. Purists of the world, no thanks are necessary.

******

That's the article I wanted to write, but I'll give them props... and for the record JJ, here's George Sisler v Ichiro!

Sisler's 1920 season actual stats:
257 Hits 631 AB's


Ichiro 2004 season actual:
262 Hits 704 AB's

Sisler's 1920 season translated stats:

231 Hits 637 AB's

Ichiro 2004 translated:
267 Hits 677AB's

Ichiro! Still Champ!!

Friday, July 13, 2007

Ranger Trades

I've been thinking about this a lot recently. Don't look at their streak leading up to the All-Star break, even with that streak their over a dozen games out and still in last place in the division. This team needs to sell off the few useful parts it actually has. Sammy and Lofton should be giving away for a bag of magic beans. Millwood should be held onto until right at the deadline, hopefully he has a few good outings between now and then...he'll prolly be the best starter available at the deadline.

In this column I'll focus on realistic trades possibilities for Gagne, Aki, and Big Tex. Since you're not going to get Philip Hughes or Andrew Miller/Cameron Maybin, I recommend trading each guy separately and loading up on undervalued guys, pre arbitration eligible guys who can start next year, and really young guys with upside.

Eric Gagne to Cleveland for OF Shin-Soo Choo and C Maximiliano Ramirez

Besides setting the record for coolest names ever in a trade, I think this deal makes sense for both teams. Texas gets a guy who can step in a play right now, Choo, and a young guy with a lot of upside, Maximiliano, while Cle gets bullpen help they so desperately need.

Shin-Soo Choo may not be a name that is widely known to Ranger fans but he does some things very well; he gets on base, runs well, and catches the ball. The 24 year old Korean can play each of the outfield spots as well at DH and would step right into the Texas' lineup. Choo is a victim of a numbers crunch in Cleveland as Trot Nixon, David Delluci, Jason Michaels, Casey Blake, Grady Sizemore, and Travis Hafner are all blocking his way to the show. Due to injuries he got some playing time last year, and in about a month and a half of work he hit .295/.373/.473 for the Tribe. Those numbers look shockingly similar to his career minor league totals, .303/.393/.464. He may not get a lot better as he goes on, but he's good enough to play everyday in the majors right now.

Max Ramirez is the next in line of young Latin catchers. Ramirez was on the World Roster for the Futures Game, but did not play. He has a very strong arm and walks a lot...two things I like from my catchers. He does strike out a lot, but he has yet to post an OBP under .408 in any of his minor league stops. He's far away from being big league ready, but with Victor Martinez entrenched at the 2 spot I wouldn't be shocked if the Indians moved him for big league help, especially a legit closer like Gagne.

Cleveland was the other big competitor for Gagne's services this offseason, and it would stand to reason that after the great first half he's had they still have a lot of interest in him. The Indians should be the team that is the best fit for Gagne; in a pennant race, in that race with another team that needs bullpen help, stats oriented organization, lots of young talent. Trading a guy who can't get in their lineup and a wet behind the ears backstop isn't too much to ask. But since he's going to be a free agent after this year and is still an injury risk don't expect the moon in return. Choo would start for us and Ramirez would be one of our top 10 prospects, not a bad haul.

Akinora Otsuka and Joaquin Arias to the New York Mets for CF Lastings Milledge

Omar Minaya and the rest of the Metropolitans brass have been down on Lastings for awhile...seemingly upset that he hasn't had instant success in the majors and the dreaded but very vague "attitude problems" have been associated with him, as well. However, Omar can lose sight of the big picture and overpay for immediate gratification especially for a big name. While Aki isn't a big name...Gagne maybe if you could switch these two trades...but he fills a very important hole; late relief. Getting to Billy Wagner has been a bit of a problem this year, and if he goes down...not completely unforeseen for a 35+ year old player...NYM has no alternatives. Aki gives them a proven 8th inning guy who can also close. Two big reasons I think Aki is more likely for this deal;

1) He's still under club control for 2 more seasons, so whomever acquires him will have him for much longer than Gagne.

2) Gagne has control of where he goes, and because his contract includes financial incentives based on numbers of games finished it's unlikely that he'll agree to be traded somewhere where he wouldn't be the closer.

I'm not a fan of Arias, but I think Minaya might be. He covets toolsy Latin players and Arias is nothing if that. Reyes at short would block Joaquin, but the Mets are in desparte need of a second basemen...Reyes and Arias up the middle would cover insane amounts of ground.

Milledge is the type of young, very talented, pre-arb eligible, undervalued player Texas should target. As a 21 year old in the International League (a notorious pitchers league) he's hitting .277/.388/.440 for AAA Norfolk. For a young hitter, he has very developed abilities to go the other way and a keen batting eye...drawing walks in 14% of his plate appearances this year. Scouts have long raved about his tools, his Soriano like quick bat and footspeed made him a first round pick out of high school in '03.

Somewhat similar to Choo in Cleveland, Milledge faces the outfield logjam with Carlos Beltran, Shawn Green, Moises Alou with the big club and young studs Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez going to be ready for the bigs soon, Milledge seems like the odd man out even though he'll be a good player with a real shot of being a superstar. Milledge was called up the other day, but I really think it's for more of a showcase to other teams than anything.

I thought going into this year the the Mets would try and move Milledge for a starter, but with the way John Maine and Oliver Perez have steppped up that need seems to have been largely filled from within. They may still want a starter in return, so I'd see if Millwood or Padilla or Volquez have any appeal to them. Bottom line is that there is a deal to be made here, the Mets are willing to part with Milledge and getting a top-notch set up man who can close who and will still be yours for 2 years after this AND a young athletic uber toolsy minor leaguer is a fair price.

Mark Teixeira to Atlanta for LHP Matt Harrison, SS Chase Fontaine, and RHP Jamie Richmond

The big one, you've all been waiting for...not what you were hoping for? Me neither...but I think it's about as good as it'g going to get. Atlanta is in a playoff race (shock!) and they have a big need for a power hitting first baseman. Not making the playoffs last year could give GM John Schurholtz the extra encentive to get a big deal done, even if it means parting with a guy like Matt Harrison.

I was a big proponent of trading Tex to the Dodgers for Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp/James Loney but that deal would have to have been made a month ago because with they way Loney's been playing in the bigs they don't need a first baseman anymore. Detroit has a big need, but beyond Andrew Miller and Maybin there's not much in that organization that interests me and those two guys are pretty much untouchable. Yanks aren't giving up Hughes, BoSox won't part with Buchholtz. If I'm JD I'm still on the phone with all those teams trying to get a deal done, but if none of those teams budge then I call Atlanta back and accept this offer...which isn't bad at all for a guy not in your long term plans.

I know most people would want any trade with Atlanta to bring Salty back to be our catcher. While I like Salty as much as the next guy, I think we wouldn't be able to get much else back if we got him. I start with Salty and Harrison, but I'm not sure if they...or any team...is going to trade their two top prospects. I'd rather get Harrison and two other decent prospects instead of Salty and a bag of beans.

Harrison is one of the best pitching prospects around that no one talks about. Drafted in the third round in 2003 out of a North Carolina High School Harrison has shown an amazingly advanced feel for pitching...I'm sure being in the Braves system doesn't hurt. A six-foot-five lefty with a rare combination of power stuff and plus command. His fastball sits comfortably in the low 90s and has touched 95; his curve and change up are both plus offerings. But, as good as Harrison's stuff is--and it's excellent--he doesn't miss a lot of bats. At times, he can be guilty of throwing too many strikes and giving opposing batters too many hittable pitches, as opposed to working with the count. However, learning how to set up hitters better and when to throw a curve outside the zone can come with age. Harrison is currently in AA Mississippi for the Braves where he's thrown 107 groundball outs to 73 flys. He may never be an ace...well not a true ace, the Rangers ace, yes!...but he should be a strong #2 starter and still has a lot of potential.

The Braves got Chase Fontaine in the second round last season in the June draft where he promtly hit .296/.411/.412 at Rookie-level Danville. A very good hitter who draws walks in bunches; fundamentally sound both at the plate and in the field; your basic baseball rat who loves playing and takes well to coaching. His real first name is Robert, which is nowhere near as cool as being called Chase. But his combination of plate discipline and coachability make him a legit prospect. Even though he's far away, he should move up quick.

Jamie Richmond is another young arm in the Braves organization that seems to have a shot at being a good big leaguer. Richmond sort of reminds me of a younger Harrison, his strikeout rates are good but not great but he has phenomonal control; walking 6 batters in 78.1 pro innings. Another thing that is very appealing about Richmond is that he has yet to surrender a long ball. As a professional, no one has hit a home run off of Jamie Richmond. If a pitcher throws strikes and keeps the ball in the park he'll give his team a chance to win, Richmond does both of those things as well as any 20 year old in baseball.

If trading these three guys and net the Rangers two new starters who will be under club control for 4-5 years, as well as 4 new guys to add to their annunal Top 10 Prospect Rankings next year I'll consider it a success.

Adding Choo and Milledge to the starting lineup with Max Ramirez, Matt Harrison, Chase Fontaine, and Jamie Richmond to the minor leagues probably wouldn't make Ranger fans see the light at the end of the tunnel...but at least we'd know we were pointed in the right direction, something I have no faith in currently.

Of course if Joe Savery RHP Rice, Ric Porcello RHP HS, Brett Cecil LHP Maryland, Wes Roemer RHP CSF, Corey Brown OF OSU, Tony Thomas Jr 2B FSU, Matt Harvey RHP HS, and Kyle Russell OF UT were actually drafted by the Rangers, our minor system would be one of the top 5 in the league.

A Good TV Night

I found myself last night with nothing to do, for the first time in a long time (hence the space between posts.) With the Rangers not on and ESPN showing international softball it was shaping up to be a lost evening.

But then! (great phrase! You could write a book about "but then!") MAVS SUMMER D-LEAGUE BALL to the rescue!!!

That is only slightly sarcastic, I was very excited this was on. It was my first time to see Fazekas and Reyshawn wear Maverick uniforms...granted they were the weird practice unis...but still. Plus it was against the hated Rockets.

A few impressions from the game:

1) The level of play was extremely high. There were times where it seemed a bit like 10 guys playing 1 on 1, but for the most part everyone played within a team concept. Everyone played their butts off.

2) JJ Barea is a NBA player. I remember watching him last year in exhibition games and thinking to myself, "who is this little guy...did no one tell him he has no chance of making the team?" But no one ever did, he'll never be a starter but he'll be a valuable backup pure PG for a long time.

3) JJB wasn't the most impressive PG in that game Aaron Brooks, the Rockets' first round pick, was blowin' bye everyone. Best of all he looked to pass, something he very rarely did collegiately at Oregon.

4) Maurice Ager looked like the best player on the floor...probably because he was.

5) Pops absolutely hates the rim, just watch him next time he dunks. I think the rim stole his girlfriend or something.

6) Reyshawn was playing D...very good sign.

7) Fazekas didn't have his shot working, but his release was very quick and clean.

I would have more but the I got distracted watching this. How am I supposed to fully immerse myself in summer hoops when The Office and Flight of the Concords is on at the same time?? For those of you who have not seen Flight of the Concords (HBO) it's currently locked in a steel cage match with Human Giant (MTV) for the title of Lincoln's favorite new comedy show.

Friday, July 6, 2007

Talkin' Baseball

...And Mavs...and whatever else I feel like, it's my blog!

There has been a plethora of major milestones being hit recently, 500HRs, 600HRs, 3000 hits, and soon 756.

The Big Hurt went big fly for the 500th time in his illustrious career off noted worm-burner, Carlos Silva. Biggio got his 2997-3002 hits in classic extra inning affair vs. the Rockies, which concluded when El Cabayo hit a walk-off grand slam...all in all a very cool day of baseball.

Interesting, if coincidental, that these two players would zero out their baseball odometers on the same day, as both have been among the most underrated players of their generation.

Craig Biggio is a demigod in H-Town, but apparently no one can see him play through all the smog as he has never received the national attention he has deserved...save the obligatory you-just-reached-a-major-milestone-Tim-Kurkjian-SportCenter-5-minute-tribute. Biggio is probably the fifth greatest second baseman of all time (behind Hornsby, Lajoie, Eddie Collins, and Joe Morgan) and while he spent a good part of his career away from the keystone sack, he caught and played centerfield...name me another player who could do that! His versatility defensively gains him brownie points over guys like Paul Molitor and Rod Carew who shifted to the corner infield, or DH...even though he hasn't been a good defensive player for some time now.

Actually Biggio hasn't really been a good player overall after turning 35, he's been a liability in the field and while he was once and on-base machine (the best kind of machine...other than this) his bat has really slowed as evidence by his increased strikeout and decreased walk rate over the last part of his career (pitchers know he can't keep up with a good fastball, so they just throw them by him.) Biggio has been on a tear since reaching that magical milestone, getting his numbers all the way up to .260/.302/.405. Still, the 'Stros are a team that is trying to contend and as great as he has been Biggio now stands in the way of them winning ball games.

Since Biggio gets points for playing anywhere up the middle defensively, being a really good base runner, great team player/clubhouse guy, always hustling, being the guy you want your daughter to marry, shaking hands, and kissing babies...Frank Thomas could be opposite; kissing hands and shaking babies.

And yet even though he was never a good defensive player or base runner or friendly with the media or teammates or front office personnel, Thomas is one of the 15 best hitters of the live ball era.

From BaseballReference the career leaders of Adjusted OPS+

Babe Ruth
Ted Williams
Barry Bonds
Lou Gehrig
Rogers Hornsby
Mickey Mantle
Albert Pujols
Ty Cobb
Jimmie Foxx
Mark McGwire (yes, Big Mac!)
Stan Musial
Frank Thomas

That puts him as the 6th best right handed hitter in the live ball era, using this one metric which admittedly isn't perfect but it's a pretty darned good easy gauge.

Also unlike Biggio, Thomas is still a good player currently hitting .247/.377/.442

Neither of these guys needed to reach a nice round number in their stats column to garner their ticket to Cooperstown.

*****

Sammy Sosa hit 600 and has a ton of RBIs. Yet somehow he was not an All-Star, shock, awe, amazement, saddness...ok that's all the sarcasm I can muster. I'm about to point out something that no body else has pointed out all year long. Yes he has surpased my expectations...which were absolutely zero (when he got 1 hit he surpased my expectations)...get ready, brace yourselves.

Sammy Sosa is not having a good year!

I'll wait, so let you collect yourselves.

dodododododo

ok, we're back!

The Sammy for All-Star talk is only slightly less rediculous than the "We're winning without Tex, therefore we're a better team just because he's not out there."

Sammy is getting tons of RBI oppurtunites due soley to where he's hitting in the lineup. He's hitting .251/.304/.469. How many All-Star/Comeback Player of Year/Baseball Saints have .300 OBPs?

Tex, Mike Young, Ian Kinsler, Marlon Byrd, and Kenny Lofton are all having better years as is the entire bullpen.

*****

Good news in Mavs land, Stack is back! More than once last season I yelled at the tv, berating Jerry for being out of position or making a bad pass, but I'm pleased as punch to have him back because far more often I yelled in excitement after a big made basket.

Bring back the House means Dallas maintains continuity with its current cast of characters, that I still believe is championship caliber. While most people probably aren't dancing in the streets that we resigned a 32 year old bench player, his departure would have left a big hole on this team. We need Stack, and I think Stack needs us, Avery did a great job limiting his minutes and just asking Jerry to be Jerry. He was put in great spots to succeed last year.

Also of note, there are no other free agents out there that could fill what Stack does for the Mavs. Matt Barnes gives you energy but dude can't score, Desmond Mason is athletic but really not very good at basketball, Mickael Pietrus would be the closest thing but he's no where near as tough/physical/clutch as Jerry Stack.

Other name I want the Mavs to pursue this off season, Cleveland GF Sasha Pavlovic. The Cavs are right up against the luxury tax and will not be able to keep Sasha and Varejao. Cle did extend a qualifying offer but if Dallas makes a serious offer, I doubt the Fighting LeBrons will match since it will cost them double in luxury tax sanctions.

Pavlovic is coming off a really good playoff run where he was asked to cover opposing teams big offensive threats. Defensively he did good work against Vince Carter, Rip Hamilton, and Manu Ginobili.

Sasha is a good shooter from the land of three 40.5% last season, and improving. He's also not afraid to go to hole, using Bob Ortegol patented shot-fake-and-drive very effectively.

The Mavs really only have two needs: another big man who can post up/rebound (like every team ever in the history of basketball) and a swingman who can play d/shoot outside/slash inside. The first thing is very hard to find, but Pavolvic fills the second need and he's much more attainable than another guy who does.

Here's maybe the best thing about Sasha...he's 23 years old!! If went to college for 4 years, he'd just now be a rookie and he's already a solid NBA player and could be a very, VERY useful player for the Mavs Dynasty.

**** Last chance to leave comments for places to go in Mizzu!

Thursday, July 5, 2007

Happy Birth Day America (You Don't Look a Day Over 150!)

Hurray July 4th, the most underrated of holidays...that and Arbor Day of course.

On what other day do we get to stuff our faces, be lazy, listen to patriotic songs, watch baseball, and fireworks?

Went to the Ranger game, and it was surprisingly good times! No rain AND good baseball! I'm glad these crazy bizarro Rangers have replaced the team we all saw for the first couple months of the season.

A team starting, STARTING!, Jerry Hairston Jr, Ramon Vazquez, Marlon Byrd, Sammy Sosa, Kenny Lofton, AND Jerad Wright actually won a game in the majors...against a pretty good team no less. I really can't say anything else... I think after the game the Halos really felt like the Rangers pooped in the refrigerator and ate the whole wheel of cheese.

Sat front row, center field so I got to see GMJ up close. One thing that vexed me thoroughly, plenty of people shouted "HGH!!! Gary!" at Matthews, but then cheered Sosa and Hairston (who made 3 great defensive plays at 2nd...he can't hit but dude can pick it!) Really, we're all just shouting for laundry.

I only had 65 fewer hot dogs than Joey Chestnut...the greatest American hero of all time!

**** The SportsBullies are about to take a baseball road trip to the Show Me State to see the Cards/Giants and the greatly anticipated Royals/D-Rays game (tickets were crazy cheap...they're actually paying us to go) So we'll be back in after the weekend with details of the frivolities. Anyone who knows the St Louis/KC areas, please leave info in the comment section about good places to grub/drink/talk to intelligent upstanding young ladies****

Monday, July 2, 2007

Board at Work

Just at work, staring at my computer screen...it looks like I'm working... and I stumbled on a tidbit from Marc Stein on ESPN.com that got my little basketball pants excited.

"The Mavericks' No. 1 target in free agency? Folks in Dallas might have been expecting Mavs killer Matt Barnes, but I'm told it's actually Charlotte's Gerald Wallace. ..."

Wow!

I know it'd take an arm and leg to get him, he's def worth more than the Mid Level Exception, and we'd have to work out a sign-and-trade, and those never happen, but wow!

Imagine Wallace and J-Ho on the floor at the same time! Let the Suns get KG, I don't care. We'd kill the Spurs, 82-0 baby!! My fav Gerald Wallace stat; Since the league started tracking blocked shots in 1972-73, only three players have averaged at least two steals and two blocks per game. The first two were Hakeem Olajuwon and David Robinson ... and the third was Gerald Wallace!

Matt Barnes isn't in the same ballpark as this guy, aint in the same league, aint the same f---ing sport!

*****

Speaking of the Mavs, here's more on my love affair with Nick Fazekas. On our running draft recap, from which Bill Simmons stole everything!, I said this about Fazekas: Absolutely love this pick, we'll have more about it later but this a steal and a half! Of the 33 players taken ahead of him, he's def better than 10, maybe half! He's Keith Van Horn, but at a tenth the pay.

I really like the KVH comparison, and mean that as a good thing. Van Horn was a dominate, polished college player...like Fazekas. Both were big white power forwards with good inside-outside games, good shooters, good rebounders, very fundamentally sound. Heck both were even 3-time WAC POY's!

I know a lot of Mavs fans my remember the 8 point 3 rebound guy the Mavs had a couple seasons ago who made a billion dollars. Lest you forget, KVH has a 17/7 guy for his career, with highs of 22/8.5...that's a pretty darned good player.

Here's Van Horn's college stats, courtesy of BasketballReference.com

------------------MIN FG% 3P% FT% RPG APG TPG BPG SPG PPG
93-94 Utah ---29.6 51.6 44.3 77.5 8.3 0.8 2.2 1.6 0.8 18.3
94-95 Utah ---30.1 54.5 38.6 85.6 8.5 1.4 2.3 0.8 0.8 21.0
95-96 Utah ---30.9 53.8 40.9 85.1 8.8 1.0 2.3 0.7 0.7 21.4
96-97 Utah ---31.5 49.2 38.7 90.4 9.5 1.4 2.5 1.2 0.7 22.0
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
----TOTALS ---30.6 52.2 40.1 85.1 8.8 1.2 2.3 1.0 0.7 20.8

Pretty darned good!

---------------------MIN FG% 3P% FT% RPG APG TPG BPG SPG PPG
03-04 Nevada ---26.9 52.8 35.8 77.1 7.6 0.5 0.9 1.3 0.5 12.6
04-05 Nevada ---31.5 50.2 32.7 78.9 9.4 0.9 2.2 1.6 0.6 20.7
05-06 Nevada ---31.8 52.9 29.0 84.6 10.4 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.1 21.8
06-07 Nevada ---30.3 56.8 43.1 84.8 11.1 1.8 2.0 1.5 0.8 20.4
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
--------TOTALS ---30.1 53.2 34.1 81.5 9.6 1.3 1.7 1.5 0.7 18.8

Pretty darned good!

Fazekas is a much better rebounder/shot blocker and has much better ball skills, far fewer turnovers, and a bit better passer. Maybe he's not as good an athlete as Van Horn was coming out of Utah, and KVH was a much more consistant shooter...but if Fazekas is actually a 43% three point shooter, or close to it he's going to be stud! At the worst he's a good backup for Dirk.

Hollinger, who I hate, had Fazekas rated as the 7th best college prospect this year. Nick's college bio lists his personal info as "enjoys swimming and playing Nintendo...hopes to surf one day...an avid collector of Jordan brand basketball shoes." Nice to know about the former Colorado Mr. Basketball.